Analysis of Florida rural votes that appeared flipped

[T Roosevelt]

I've compared 2000 vs 2004 in Florida

http://election.dos.state.fl.us /

Just a basic examination of the numbers:

5 counties FLIPPED from Gore (2000) to Bush (2004)
7 counties Kerry had FEWER votes than Gore (0 for Bush)
63 counties Bush 2004 had HIGHER % of votes than Bush 2000
57 counties Kerry had LOWER % of votes than Gore 2000

In examining the smaller optical scan counties that had higher Dem registration but higher Bush votes (lots of threads on this), only 3 (Hernando, Flagler, Osceola) flipped from Gore 2000 to Bush 2004. So without looking at recent voter registrations, I don't know that we can disregard the Dixiecrat theory (other threads).

19 counties have 22.1% - 34.7% of their population over 65 (2000 Census). These contain 4 of the 5 that flipped (Flagler, Hernando, Pasco, Pinellas). Of these, 2 of the 3 optical scan counties flipped (Flagler, Hernando).

Take from this what you will, but I think it serves as a start to look for discrepancies.

In addition, I've compared the 2000 and 2004 election for Senator (Nelson-McCollum vs Castor-Martinez). While I believe it is more difficult to see anything from this (simply because senators and their appeal are not constant across elections), there are still some interesting anomalies in the numbers.

18 counties FLIPPED from Nelson (2000) to Martinez (2004)
12 counties Castor had FEWER votes than Nelson (0 for Martinez)
54 counties Martinez 2004 had HIGHER % of votes than McCollum 2000
63 counties Castor 2004 had LOWER % of votes than Nelson 2000

In examining the smaller optical scan counties that had higher Dem registration but higher Martinez votes, only 1 (Miami-Dade) flipped from Nelson 2000 to McCollum 2004. Again, without looking at recent voter registrations, I don't know that we can disregard the Dixiecrat theory (other threads).

It does not seem that population over 65 comes into play in the senate race - only 1 county flipped (Citrus), and the 2000 vote was very close.

In addition, 2 counties (Miami-Dade and Orange) had Kerry for president, but Martinez for senate.

[Eloriel]

1. The danger of using 2000 figures

is that they may have been (or probably were) skewed as well.

Do you remember that, for example, Gore got a MINUS 16,000 votes in Volusia County (thanks to one of those cute little plastic cards that get inserted into optical scan systems, which card subsequently mysteriously disappeared)? How on earth can a candidate get a negative vote count added to the tally?

[T Roosevelt]

2. I am wary of using past numbers

but the trends across most all the counties match up across both elections. Does that mean there wasn't fraud? No. Judging by the fact that * gained votes in pretty much every county, while Kerry lost in pretty much every county, indicates that if anything votes were probably skimmed.

I'll pulled the senate races to try to get some sense of consistency for another national office.

Definitely needs to be looked into - I'm just warning that all this talk of counties being flipped may not bear out, and could make us look foolish, unless it is backed up.

[Malva Zebrina]

3. What isneeded is concrete evidence

otherwise it will go the way of the Bush was AWOL Dan Rather thing.

If there is no paper trail and there is no whistle blower, it will never materialize no matter how much circumstantial evidence. There is still plausable denial ie we got the evangelicals to come out in droves to vote their "moral values" and that explains it.

If persons on DU can inject doubt, think of what the ministry of propaganda can run with.

I do think there was fraud. Already there are people spouting the talking points like Simpson on Maher show. Poppy Bush makes an appearance on BBC to spout more talking points and that is really strange because he concentrated on making sure to emphasize that the exit polling was flawed and I saw no reason at all for him to come to defend his son against those who are making snide comments about the "president" in that interview. I would have expected him simply to express happiness and be pleased with the outcome. Instead he went through pains to make sure more talking points were thrown out.

There needs to be concrete evidence and none is forthcoming so far .

[T Roosevelt]

4. These counties have ballots

the question is can we get them counted so that they can be compared with what was tallied.

If you were going to steal votes, you wouldn't want it to be obvious - such as flipped votes relative to registrations. But if you skimmed from everywhere, shifting here and there...

[Awsi Dooger]

5. The key number: 63 of 67 counties Bush had a higher percentage than 2000

Simply indicative of a slight but widespread change of preference. Very similar to what I see nationwide, when looking at bellwether counties, regardless of their type of voting method.

Move on, indeed.

[gauguin57]

6. When the Olbermann transcript is fininshed, check out

how he talks about JUST the counties with Optical Scan ballots (pencil-filled paper ballots that are scanned by computer) ... in those counties that are overwhelmingly Democrat registration and had overwhelmingly Democratic exit polling, Bush won handily.

That makes no sense ... especially when, as Olbermann pointed out, the other kinds of voting machines in the state came up with results in line with registration AND exit polling.

It's the optical scan ballots. It's clear the COUNTING was fucked up!!!!!!

AND they CAN be recounted. We just need Kerry or Nader to ask for a recount of the whole state (no cherrypicking, like Gore -- it's gotta be the whole state this time!)

[Spangle]

8. Bingo!

Osceola is an example of that. I'm serious! We used Optical scan ballots. I'm waiting on final results. They are kinda slow giving them out here. But with what I have, and not using exact data and can give an example of what I mean. When the actual numbers are in hand, the data can be corrected.

Pct 8 had about 4,500 registered voters. About 50% Democrat, 25% Republican, 25% "other." About a 70 to 75% voter turn out. Pct 8 is a high new growth area. People moving in from NY and PR as well as from all over the place. NOT a Dixiecrat area, for sure. This was a "target" area with the Kerry Hispanic outreach team. Door to door with both spanish speakers and non-spanish speakers. Rides, etc.

yet, the first totals I got from this pct on electon night... Kerry was ahead ONLY 167 votes. NO FREAKING WAY! I don't care if it can't be proven. EVER. I KNOW that number is wrong. This is my personal pct and the feeling in this area was HIGHLY Kerry.

For the Republicans as well. We even had republicans calling our office and TELL US they were going to support Kerry over Bush.

[gauguin57]

9. But the REAL vote count CAN be proven.

Those optical scan ballots can be recounted by hand, can't they? Or by one scanning machine with safeguards -- scanned under the watchful eye of law enforcement trained in computer crimes.

[Spangle]

7. Osceola

Is one of those areas of massive growth. Our dixiecrats are born and bread.. Don't expect to see new ones registering. The new registerations are from the newbies moving down from NY and other Northern, Democratic areas. Lots of PR hispanics. Have Cubans as well, but more PR's.

Major push for the Hispanic vote. Which is trying to get more hispanic representation in this area. NEVER seen this area worked this hard before.

So many people from NY moved here, i was afraid that NY would turn red because of the drain of Democatic voters to here. Tee Hee

2004 election includes problems with missing/forgetten ballots and data lost from machine used in early voting. These missing/forgotten ballots were from polling places where there were more votes then the machines "black box" could store. The ballots were put in a storage secton and forgotten on election night. The machine that actualy lost votes was used in the SOE office for early voting.

A recount was done on 2 races. Only one of them was county wide. Trying to get exact figures on this. But what I have been told so far is that more votes DID show up. Democrats on the scene still not sure the data is correct. The canvassing board was going to certify the results without investigating ANYTHING.

Based upon what we DO KNOW, this county should have turned in enough Kerry votes to make it Blue. Everyone is confused that it didn't. All signs and indicaters showed this county going to Kerry in a landslide.

[meganmonkey]

10. We need to be CAREFUL with the Florida Evidence!!!

http://election.dos.state.fl.us/elections/resultsarchive/DetailRpt.Asp?ELECTIONDATE=11/8/88&RACE=PRE&PARTY=&DIST=&GRP=&DATAMODE=

I didn;t see the Olbermann segment (no TV here) but most references are to a few counties with high numbers of registered democrats which voted overwhelmingly for Bush. Generally they are referring to Franklin, Dixie & Holmes counties as examples, i.e. the following

-snip-
An analysis reported on by Thom Hartmann found that in Florida, in the smaller counties in which optically scanned ballots were counted on a central computer the results were quite surprising. For example, Franklin County, with 77.3 percent registered Democrats, went 58.5 percent for Bush. Holmes County, with 72.7 percent registered Democrats, went 77.25 percent for Bush
-snip-

The problem is that these counties have gone republican since at least 1988, despite their high registered-democrat numbers. Old dixiecrats, I think.
I AM A BELIEVER IN FRAUD!!! I truly am, and I don't want to be a downer. I am just worried that since this is the most referenced example of potential fraud, our whole cause will lose credibility when this one is debunked. Unless, of course fraud has happened in these counties for the last 5 elections. I am not saying that is impossible, just highly unlikely. WE NEED TO FOCUS ON BETTER EXAMPLES!

[theboss]

11. People are grasping for anything, I think

We need a list of every accusation/theory because it's getting overwhelming.

[meganmonkey]

12. This is the best list we have that I know of

I just gave it a kick so it's back on page one of this forum.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=1333866&mesg_id=1342221