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POSTED AT DEMOCRATIC UNDERGROUND
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=2625708#2626012BASED ON EXIT POLLS, THE PROBABILITY KERRY WOULD LOSE OH AND FL = 0.15%
That's less than 1/6 of one percent!
To put it another way, the chances are 1 out of 667 that Bush would win BOTH states.
Assuming a 2% MoE for the exit polls (they are much more accurate than standard polls), the probabilities are:
Ohio Exit Poll:
Kerry 52 - Bush 48
Prob (Kerry wins OH)= 97.7%
Florida Exit Poll:
Kerry 51 - Bush 48
Prob (Kerry wins FL)= 93.5%
Then
Prob (Kerry loses FL and OH) =0.15% = (1-.977)*(1-.935)
Prob(Kerry wins OH or FL or Both)= 99.85% = 1 -.15%
How did I calculate the probs?
Simple. Feed the data into the Excel Normal Distribution function:
Since the MoE = .02, the Standard Deviation is .02/1.96 = .01
Prob (Kerry wins OH)= NORMDIST(0.52,0.5,0.01,TRUE) = 97.7%
Prob (Kerry wins FL)= NORMDIST(51/99,0.5,0.01,TRUE) = 93.5%
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Here is the reason why they covered up the exist polls
http://www.truthout.org/docs_03/voting.shtml#part1The story you are about to read is in this writer's view the biggest political scandal in American history, if not global history. And it is being broken today here in New Zealand.
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This explains the need for election to be close
http://www.commongroundcommonsense.org/index.php?showtopic=53Explanation of rigging an election
As John Hopkins University and Bev Harris have pointed out repeatedly in their first field studies; I have seen the duplicitous nature of just how easy it is to rig elections using the G.E.M.S system.
GEMS central tabulator is nothing more than an ATM machine on your home computer, with all the escape routes and backdoors. There are two columns for votes, one for the plus side and one for the negative. You can freely change the opposite column at any time you like, using MS Access. Doing this means you can add or subtract however many votes you want, within the GEMS system's rules.
What this means is that the opposing rule of positive, must turn out negative. If you take away 5000 votes from one side, reversing his percentage that exact same number will be applied to the other guy's total. It can not work any other way.
In order for the fraud to be workable, it must always come within the same vote total score GEMS tabulates. So yes, it does count every vote there is always. They never lied here. But, in order to keep the total accurate, they can freely remove or add the same number of votes, making it seem like nothing happened, to the other side. Thus the other candidate always wins. Ta daa.
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The actual voting results of paper ballot versus electronic, off by huge incremental margins of votes
This was posted at DU
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=1333866&mesg_id=1333866&page=-------------
The same Blackwell that tried to illegally stop Ohio people from voting because of the 80lb paper.
http://www.dissidentvoice.org/Feb04/Fitrakis0226.htm If Ohio’s Republican Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell has his way, Diebold will receive a contract to supply touch screen electronic voting machines for much of the state. None of these Diebold machines will provide a paper receipt of the vote.
Diebold, located in North Canton, Ohio, does its primary business in ATM and ticket-vending machines. Critics of Diebold point out that virtually every other machine the company makes provides a paper trail to verify the machine’s calculations. Oddly, only the voting machines lack this essential function.
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E-Voting Machines has a Halliburton/Cheney connection. This might be the smoke and gun people right here.
http://www.dissidentvoice.org/April2004/Landes0406.htm Former President, Chief Operating Officer, and Vice Chairman of SAIC is Admiral Bill Owens, who is now Chairman of the Board for VoteHere. Owens also served as Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and was a senior military assistant to Secretaries of Defense Frank Carlucci and Dick Cheney. Carlucci's company is Carlyle Group, while Vice President Dick Cheney's former employer is Halliburton.
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Voter News Service (VNS)
http://www.dissidentvoice.org/Articles/Landes_Projections.htmThe news networks don't just report election news, they create it. But do they also conspire to control election results?
Voter News Service (VNS) is a top-secret private consortium owned by ABC News, The Associated Press, CBS News, CNN, Fox News, and NBC News. It's current headquarters is in Brooklyn, New York. It's been around (under different names) since 1964. It's the only company whose exit poll results are used by the news media to announce the "projected" winners in races for the president, U.S. House and Senate, state governors, and select races.
By 1964, computers were used to predict election outcomes, as well as to count votes on "punch cards." With the use of computerized vote counters and the news networks exclusive control over polling data in major elections, the gates to election fraud were wide open. Computerized voting machines have now made election fraud as easy as stealing candy from a baby.
So how could VNS help rig an election? VNS could conspire with corrupt government officials and crooked voting machine companies (whose reputation for fraud and "error" grows with every election) to come up with projections that closely mirror the expected election results. Then all that's needed is some 'tweaking' in targeted precincts where voting data can be manipulated, voting machines rigged ....and elections swung. VNS follows through with its de facto certification of election results that have already been fixed. If someone suspects vote rigging, there's always VNS to say that the results match their projections.
And with no oversight, who's to know?
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Aviel D. Rubin studied 49,000 lines of leaded code from Diebold
http://www.zwire.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=12961997&BRD=1426&PAG=461&dept_id=525682&rfi=6Johns Hopkins University Professor Aviel D. Rubin has become a leading opponent against high-tech voting systems. Rubin published the first in-depth security analysis of Diebold's touch-screen voting software.
"He studied 49,000 lines of leaded code from Diebold...and found it contained incorrect use of cryptography and bad software engineering," the Collin County Democrats' release states.