Why Alan Keyes was DEVASTATING to the Democrats

[Walt Starr]

This is a factual statement and it is based solely upon a few simple facts.

1) There is strong evidence that the Alan Keyes run was suggested and blessed at the national level by the RNC.

2) Alan Keyes likes to play the martyr and the RNC knows this.

3) Alan Keyes only appeals to the very core of the Republican base. He turns off the moderates in the extreme.

4) The RNC would love to make inroads into Illinois and eventually turn this solidly blue state red.

Here's the kicker, the Alan Keyes Senate results when coupled with the presidential elections results paints an incredibly detailed picture of how the average Illinoisan voter thinks on the core issues of the Republican Party. The Alan Keyes candidacy was a reconnaissance mission to gather data. Right now, the RNC is analyzing that data at an extremely granular level. They will have a clear picture on how to begin the attack in 2006 and prepare the way for the 2008 election. They could very easily field a Senatorial candidate who could beat Dick Durbin if the pay attention to the details and promote a candidate who is capable of winning over Joe Sixpack from Dick.

They probably won't be capable of defeating Blagojevich in 2006, but I fully expect another reconnaissance mission to probe from the other side of the political spectrum. How many people want to bet the RNC will give its blessing to a Judy Baar Topinka run for governor? It's her fondest wish and it will be the easiest way for the RNC to jettison her.

But all of this boils down to a single reason this run by Alan Keyes will be DEVASTATING for the Democrats. The Democrats will ignore all of this valuable data gathered by the Republicans and continue with business as usual. They will act upon hard statistical sampling and the Democrats will simply stick with their hearts.

Democrats, get a brain! We need to analyze the state by state, county by county, district by district and ward by ward data with a fine tooth comb in order to compete with the Republicans in the entire nation. The tools are there and within two years, the Democrats can be at an identical level with this all important knowledge as the Republicans. It took the Republicans decades to get here, but with modern data mining and computing, we can easily catch up to them as the tools are not that expensive and the computing power of a simple PC outdoes everything the Republicans had at their disposal twenty years ago when this level of analysis began.

[LynnTheDem]

1. Immaterial.

Let the rethugs spend billions and hours on this shit.

We have a message but it isn't getting heard. We have spokespeople who don't know their facts. And we have leaders who are too timid/too polite too whatever who refuse to scream and point LIAR!!! every time the rightwingnuts lie.

IF we can get our agenda out and heard

and

IF we can get spokespeople who know the damn FACTS

and

IF we can get them & our leaders to POINT OUT THE LIES every single time the rightwingnuts lie,

Then WE WIN PERMANENTLY.

Our agenda:

To protect and defend the citizens of the United States.

To preserve the separation of church and state

To safeguard the right to choose

To provide a decent safety net

To preserve progressive taxation

To protect the environment

To advance civil liberties and civil rights

To govern transparently

To provide opportunity

To promote equality

To advance progress

To preserve the American way of life

Now really, what % of Americans are going to say EWWWW YUCK NOOOO to our agenda, IF THEY EVER HEARD IT.

[davepc]

2. 51% of them

Baby killer, gun grabber, tree hugger, "gay agenda".

We keep fighting the same battles over and over and over and over again.

TIME TO CHANGE THE DEBATE.

We have been SO colored by our opposition that none of our arguments get heard at all. Nothing short of the best communicator we've had in 30 years like Bill Clinton is able to cut through the slurs and the noise.

[Walt Starr]

5. Even Bill Clinton couldn't cut through the noise today

The Democrats have succeeded in destroying that capability forever.

Reframe the debate. Cut our losses and jettison the garbage.

[Zuni]

8. Most of those 51% heard the media, not us

They have no idea what we stand for.
For example equal rights does not mean 'gay agenda'.

[mopaul]

3. leaders who are too timid/too polite

bingo ringo

[Walt Starr]

4. Thank you for proving my point

You're going down the path of thinking with your heart and allowing the Republicans to go down the path of anyalysis of the real data. End of the day under your methodology, Illinois Democrats will lose control of one House in the state legislature in 2006, and the second House in 2008 coupled with a defeat for Dick Durbin. Why is this? Because the Republicans will be capable of efficiently targeting key districts, precincts and yes, even wards with a cost effective approach that allows tehm to win election after election. All teh while, the Democrats will fflog about in a fog where they have no clear direction or message because the Democrats are out of touch with Joe Sixpack.

They've done this to us on a national level for a decade to our demise. They know the voters at the most granualr level while our leadership sits in their ivory towers directing their troops.

Democrats MUST check their egos at the door, or the Republicans will remain the permanent majority Party in this nation.

[bearfartinthewoods]

24. Giving you props Walt, for the attempt.

You have more grit than I do. I got tired of trying to pry open the windows and let some light in here.

Good luck to you. You are going to need it.

[aldian159]

45. Durbin is going nowhere

He's a southern IL guy who appeals to both the southern part of the state and cook county. The ILGOP is a joke right now. Blago will walk to re-election, and the state Democratic Party hates him. While I don't doubt what you are saying, Blago is going nowhere. Who are the Republicans gonna run? Topinka? Raushenburger? Oberwies? Come on, no one in the GOP bullpen is scary.

[AuntPatsy]

78. No walt, I refuse to compromise my integrity to appease a bunch

of biggoted moronic rightwinged zealouts to to win. We stayed on track fairly close and we WON! I cannot believe that you doubt that, you seem to be wanting to change this party's platform in order to conform to a new order of things? The majority of Americans were and still are against these people, the rest are mindless zombies who parrot talking points that are out and out lies as if they are gospel, I want free thinking Americans to remain..

We cannot change now, we forge on and we get louder. We declare over and over again to friends and family members that we are liberals and proud of it...

You cannot win by becoming the enemy, you then lose sight of yourself. And though I have great respect for you and have for some time, I am wondering where you have been coming from these last couple of days?

[Walt Starr]

79. That's okay so long as you don't mind losing time after time after time

and are okay with not a whit of an agenda that even approaches your core values ever being advanced over the next, oh, about a CENTURY AND A HALF!!!!!

[itzamirakul]

29. GREAT POST! I AGREE!

Thanks Lynn for this great post. I have copied it and I will share it with others (with appropriate credit to you, of course) You are saying what I have also been trying to express (though perhaps not as succinctly) on this board as well as on many others. Our most important job is formulating OUR values as Democrats, finding the appropriate "sound bite words" that symbolize those EXACT values and then having leaders who have the balls to verbalize those values.

Also, we have to force the right to CLEARLY DEFINE what THEY mean when they talk about family values. What social values do they have and what social values are they willing to kick to the curb. Also, we need leaders who will come out and publicly call Rush Limbaugh on his race-baiting and ALL of the major networks on their rightwing biases.

[okieinpain]

44. that's why you need to mine the data.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. That's Rediculous...

Why would the Republicans blow a Senate race to see which issues work when they could take a poll or series of polls?

[geek tragedy]

9. The race was blown when Ryan's records were leaked.

I do wonder if Dems aren't using the data.

It also seems that Alan Keyes is the wrong person to use if they're looking for good data.

[Walt Starr]

17. Nope, he was the PERFECT person to use

They have hard statistical data of the distribution of their core constituency in Illinois now.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. Their Core Constituency Is 27%...

If we ran DK statewide in OH he would get 27%...


Candidates out of the mainstream get their ass handed to them...

I can divine that without taking a poll...


Not much to learn from that...

[Walt Starr]

31. Incredible data to draw from these losses, especailly when it was lost to

begin with.

They have key core constiuency distribution data now. They know teh 11 counties where they are the absolute strongest and can now attack accordingly.

[sangh0]

37. Yep, Walt is right

Unlike many Dems, the repukes realize that in order to win you have to identify your supporters and your opponents, and find out where they are and where they are not. It makes no sense to campaign for something without knowing who the people you are appealing to are.

The repukes really didn't have a chance there. They still don't. But now, they have a start on their analysis. Meanwhile, we're sitting here repeating our talk about how right we are, and how wrong they are, which does NOTHING to further our cause.

[Walt Starr]

56. Thanks for the support, sangh0

:D

[Zuni]

11. They were going to lose this one anyway

[Sterling]

12. I can feel the Joementum already

:eyes:

[okieinpain]

53. they didn't intend to lose, that ryan guy just got in trouble. so when

that happens you look for silver linings.

[Cocoa]

7. what makes you think the dems are ignoring the data?

it seems extremely unlikely the would ignore the meaning of the Obama-Keyes race, what's your evidence?

[sangh0]

39. It'sa not that they're ignoring

It's just that they aren't analyzing it correctly. Just as DUers are having problems understanding Walt's point, Dem operatives have the same problem because they're just as Dem as anyone on DU. They share the same viewpoint. These Dems are looking at the numbers and asking themselves, "Which policies do we have to adjust to appeal to this little slice of the electorate?"

The questions you ask drive the analysis, and we're asking the wrong question

[Walt Starr]

41. BINGO!

Meanwhile, the masters of this shit now have the data they need to take over the Illinois legislature within four years and potentially pick up a Senate Seat there as well!

[HootieMcBoob]

67. George Lakoff was an adviser to Obama

And you could tell that he had a big influence on him by both Obama's keynote speech at the convention and his acceptance speech on Tuesday night.

I would hope that everything gleaned from the Obama victory is being examined very closely for future Illinois candidates.

[Walt Starr]

69. That information needs to be gleaned on a national level

for all candidates at every level of politics!

[sangh0]

80. I didn't know that

but it makes perfect sense

[Walt Starr]

81. Makes a helluva lot of sense to me now, too!

And is probably why a sacrifical lamb for data gathering was offered up instead of attempting to retain the seat.

[President Kerry]

63. where did Keyes get his votes anyway? hicks or suburbs? nt

[Walt Starr]

65. Both candidates received votes in each county

Keyes actually won in 11 counties.

This is extremelk significant data.

[THUNDER HANDS]

10. you've obviously spent a lot of time thinking about this

I basically agree with you, not just on this but many other things you've written as of late, Walt.

I hope the silence that is coming from the Party now is due to the reflection and analysis of last Tuesday.

[charlie]

13. Both sides have data crunchers

Where'd you get the notion we don't? And why is data gleaned from a Keyes candidacy more devastating than from any other?

[geek tragedy]

14. Two questions:

1. Can the data set from an Alan Keyes race be reliable? What message did he get out other than "I'm completely batshit, and my party is desperate!"

2. Do you know that the Donkeys aren't doing so?

[Walt Starr]

15. The data is INCREDIBLY reliable and here's why

Alan Keyes would only appeal to the very core of the base. He evens turns off a good percentage of teh 1/3 base, so his data is KEY when overlayed with the presidential data. Looking at the two results gives incredibly reliable data on how to appeal to the moderates that decide elections.

If there's a Topinka run for governor in 2006, the data becomes even more meaningful because now you have a center-left Republican running against a center-left Democrat. This provides key insight into the mind of the average voter.

The key to the Republican success has been and remains the success at the base level in politics, the state and local elections. Tis is machine politics driven from a centralized national forum and that is simply something the Democrats have never demonstrated a capability of doing.

The reason I know the Democrats are not analyizing the data, or at least have not been correctly analyizing it, is simple. I look to the results of the elections over the past decade. If they were scrutinizing this type of data to the level the Republicans have been, we would not be losing election after election.

Democrats have been successful in Illinois. The Republicans are keying in on why that is so and how to reverse those successes. they have been the masters at this shit for a long time now.

[geek tragedy]

16. But, Bush LOST Illinois.

The data may be useful in showing how to get from 25% to 45%. But how does it show them how to get to 51%?

[Walt Starr]

19. By taking the state legislature, reframing the debate in Illinois

and finally redistricting to allow most Democrats from Illinois to be run out of Congress.

[Walt Starr]

38. I'll further add, this is how Ohio went from Blue to Red

They started at the local level and worked up.

[JVS]

127. When was Ohio ever a Democratic stronghold?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. Alan Keyes Is The Real Deal

He ran on the undiluted Pug agenda...


It got 27% of the vote in Illinois...


The pugs then modify their "real" agenda to reach 50%...


We need to demonstrate to people that Alan Keyes represents true core Republican values....

[LuminousX]

22. Keyes didn't even appeal to the base

many long-term Republicans couldn't bring themselves to vote for him. The suppressed voter turnout helped defeat Phil Crane. Melissa Bean will have a hell of a race in 2-years because her district is Republican by nature.

They hypothesis is interesting, but I think too much value is being put upon it. The IL-Democratic Party has done a brilliant job in spreading leadership far and wide, and can further consolidate gains in 2006. Durbin is secure. Henry Hyde has a target on his back as the IL-Democratic Party will be able to financially support his opponent better than ever before.

[Walt Starr]

30. Keyes won 11 Illinois Counties

The very core of the base is a majority in 11 Illinois Counties. Extreme candidates can be run in those counties to devestating effect. Any percieved RINO in those counties are now targeted for terminiation. Any Democrats who hold office in those coutnies are now targeted for termination. When redistricting comes up, wards can be shifted from those counties to other districts where the core of the base is very strong but is not a majority. By shiftinig these wards strategically, districts previsouly held by more moderate Republican or even Democratic Congresscritters now become extreme rightwing Republican seats.

See how easy it is to draw some conclusions from this incredibly inciteful data now? I drew some very broad conclusions from a minor sampling of what the Republicans are pooring over at an extremely granu7lar level.

[charlie]

26. Not scrutinizing?

Of course they're scrutinizing data to the "level Republicans have been." Looking at it harder doesn't make it clearer.

Data is useless without analysis. And analysis is subjective. You build models and make decisions on which are the best for your needs. And what are your needs? More decisions.

Economy is tanking in a state, people are deeply worried about holding on to their jobs, are going into ever-increasing debt just to stay afloat.

They're also very religious. They're worried about moral decay and God's judgment for society's tolerance of deviants.

Which issue is the most resonant among potential voters? Which do you emphasize? How do you play it? Should you try to tweeze off some of the religious who aren't your traditional constituents, ignore them, or find ways to convince them that their vote is futile? Will the economic angle successfully woo them? Should you play to their fears or would a good times ahead message be better? Blame your opponent or offer an invitation of hope? Both? Neither?

It's a crapshoot. It's always a crapshoot. And sometimes you get it wrong. Sometimes they get it wrong.

[Tweed]

119. The Democrats in this state are PISSED that GW won

Hell I know some moderate Republicans that aren't happy GW won. I expect Topinka to lose in 2006 whatever she runs as.

[gavodotcom]

21. Hi Walt, glad to see another Illinoisian.

I think one of the things you're forgetting is that the Dems thought through this.

Obama didn't really campaign after J. Ryan withdrew and really didn't debate Keyes, at least that's what I took away from the debates. That's going to skew the results. However, I know it's very surprising and distrubing that Keyes was able to get 27% of the results. This was, though, a presidential election cycle, which have the highest turnouts.

My main point of contention with your theory is that Keyes' selection by the Republicans was more desperation than a grand plan. Remember they tried to get Ditka of all people. I think they simply went for name recognition, because it was going to be stupid to spend any money. Furthermore, they're going to be hard-pressed to find an Illinois Republican without some ties to G. Ryan to run against either current senator. The GOP is in shambles aside from a few strong House districts like the 18th, but, even then, the Dem challenger who received absolutely no party money drew a higher percentage than Keyes.

Durbin's going to be part of the minority leadership, so he's going to get all of the campaign money he wants or needs. Durbin was also the protegee of Paul Simon, who has a very good reputation downstate as an honest dealer. I don't think Obama will be relegated to senator, I think he has higher aspiratations, but I think the Illinois Dems will continue to keep Illinois blue for a long time. Cook and Madison counties certainly overcome the effects of more Republican counties, and larger cities in the state tend to even themselves out. Look at Peoria county, for instance. It went narrowly Kerry, definitively for Obama, yet voted overwhelmingly for Republican Rep. Lahood 70%-30%.

[finecraft]

23. Proactive - Not Reactionary

When are we going to freaking learn that we have to be out ahead of the ball and not constantly let the other side frame the debate and identify us and our position MONTHS NAD YEARS ahead of time!!!!!
Walt, you are 1,00 percent correct. We need to PLAY OFFENSE! By constantly being on the defensive, we are always portrayed as the whiners and ninny-babies.We never come up with the ideas first, we always just counter theirs, and they spin it so that we look like the obstructionists.

[theboss]

25. Okay, now I do think you need a bit of a vacation

I was with you before, but this is just weird.

What possibly makes you think that the RNC could not could data on Illinois voters without having Keyes get embarrassed? Hell, I could a few calls today and have a statistical breakdown of every ward in the state within a few hours (income, political views, etc). This information is easy to get.

[gavodotcom]

27. Forgiving me for trying to talk for someone, but...

I think Walt's basic point is now the Republicans know how downstate Illinois, and, ergo, about their base, feel about Hitler.

[theboss]

28. Well, that's helpful, I guess

I just don't think it's ever good to lose a race 4-1 by having an insane muppet be the voice for your party. It's going to take years to get Keyes' face out of the minds of Illinois voters.

[Walt Starr]

32. The race was already loss. By running Keyes some key data was obtained

The distribution of the core consituency of the Republican Party within Illinoi is now an open book at the Ward Level. Wake up Democrats and READ THAT BOOK!!!!!

The Demcrats can now target campaigns based upon that data to be more cost effective and efficient in campaign methodoloiges because we know both where they are stronger and where they are weaker. We can ignore the Wards where Keyes actually won, this is strong majority core constituency wards for the Republicans and no matter how much we spend we cannot take those wards, however, the reverse is also true. A more moderate message that has target specificity in those wards where Keyes was more weak for certain key districts in Illinois could easily result in taking up to five Republican congressional seats in 2006.

If the Democrats are smart and analyze the data at an extremely granular level, Keyes becomes DEVASTATING for the Republicans for YEARS AND YEARS.

[theboss]

33. This is Political Science 101 stuff

I don't know why you are acting like you just invented the wheel.

[davepc]

35. probably cause its going over most peoples heads here.

I thought we were the better educated party?

[Walt Starr]

36. I'm not, I'm trying to wake up some people here

and I'm not doing a very good job of it.

The Democratic Party can rise from the ashes of the 2004 election cycle like a phoenix, or we can continue to sit around, blame the media, the machines, the Republican lies while we continue to lose.

The key will be combining the information from George Laskoff with the analysis of this data.

[theboss]

47. I'm with you that this year is a great learning experience

But I'm not sure that a ward-by-ward breakdown of Illinois is the Rosetta Stone. And I'm pretty sure that there are people in the DNC who do this sort of thing all day long; in fact, I know there are.

There's a lot of work to do, and I'm already tired of the hand-wringing and blaming game. But I also think I need a break until after Christmas. January 2nd seems like a good day to become the long march back.

[Walt Starr]

48. The same ward by ward breakdown exists in all states

and we've obviously not been effective in the analysis of that data for the past decade.

[theboss]

50. To be honest, we've not been effective since the 70s

I think the major problem is our failure on the ideas and presentation front more than on the technological/strategic side.

Terry McAuliffe was/is the biggest technocrat to ever run a major party. The DNC can send mailings to be people based on age, race, and income level. They know where every potential voter is and what appeals to them. (I'm stretching a bit but you know what I mean). But that doesn't mean that the individual in that specific home is going to vote for our candidate.

[Walt Starr]

52. The two must go hand in hand

That's where the disconnect is. Without the analysis of the data, the framing of the debate becomes a "touchy feely" guessing game. Without properly framing the debate, the analysis of the data is just so much bunk.

Formulating top level strategies that address how to frame the debate based upon the analysis of the data is how the Republicans have been kicking our ass, and we had better learn how to get good at it quick or wqe will forever be the minority party and they will be capable of amending the constitution at will.

[Walt Starr]

34. From a basic standpoint, YES

If the Democrats get a brain, they can now know more about their enemy than the enemy knows about itself in many cases.

Utilizing this data to good effect could easily result in the Democrats picking up as many as five Congressional seats in Illinois alone come 2006.

Which is it, do we go with our brains or do we go with our hearts? I'm in business and the brain always supercedes the heart when engaging the competition.

[pmbryant]

40. Uh, what makes you think Dems are not analyzing the data

And this whole Keyes theory is not believable. Keyes likes to play the martyr and so he ran in a sure-lose race when no one else was willing to.

It's as simple as that.

The GOP may run the country, but they are in dire straits in Illinois. Losing a race 70% to 27% is not the basis for future competition, no matter how much number crunching you do.

--Peter

[Walt Starr]

43. The results of all elections at all levels over the past decade

I have hard data to back up the viewpoint that the Democratic Party doesn't have a CLUE on how to actually analyze this data.

What do you have, some "feeling"?

[pmbryant]

46. Well, let's do it ourselves then

The only "feeling" I have is based on the fact that the Dem party in Illinois has been very successful lately. So I think they are doing something right. Dems across the rest of the country should learn from them.

--Peter

[Walt Starr]

49. The fact that the Democratic Party in Illinois has been very successful

is WHY the GOP is now targeting it, IMO. Bank on it because if they can overturn that trend in Illinois, they can do it anywhere. They cannot turn the state blue in a single presidential election cycle, but they can begin positioning for smaller gains in the next midterm cycle, position for broader gains in the next presidential cycle, and change the final color in 2012 if necessary.

[pmbryant]

55. The same can be said of Texas in reverse

Paraphrasing:

"The success of the GOP in Texas recently is why we should now target it. If we can overturn that trend in Texas, we can do it anywhere. We cannot turn Texas blue in a single presidential election cycle, but we can begin positioning for smaller gains, and change the final color in 2012 if necessary."

Nothing wrong with this tactic, of course, but, by itself, it is meaningless. No doubt we Texas Dems, after getting destroyed in so many recent statewide elections, have a treasure trove of data on exactly how our base is distributed in the state. No doubt this data is very useful.

But the Dem base is nowhere near big enough to win statewide elections in Texas, just as the GOP base is nowhere near big enough to win statewide elections in Illinois.

Data analysis is fun and useful, and I intend to do a lot of it myself, if only because I have an interest and a talent for numbers, but clearly a lot of other tactics are needed in order to turn Texas blue or to turn Illinois red.

--Peter

[Walt Starr]

57. Problem is our position nationally

We cannot expend the resources in Texas at this time.

Pick a bluer shade of purple like Ohio or Virginia. We have a lot of work to do and we need to minimalize the efforts to be cost effective.

[HootieMcBoob]

71. What do you think the Democratic Party did right in Colorado?

Didn't we win big there? What was the reason for that? Did they have bad candidates or Did we have great candidates or did we study the data better on the local level? Just wondering because Colorado seemed to be somewhat of an upset for us.

[Walt Starr]

74. I didn't pay much attention to those races, but the wins are extremely

significant in the overall data that's available for the positives and negatives in the nation.

The Salazar v Coors race needs an extremely granular analysis to see what worked and what didn't. With Colorado as the national headquarters of Focus on the Family, I doubt there's a more significant race in the nation to focus our analytical attention upon.

[coloradodem2005]

98. One of the big issues was the budget problem.

The Republicans were not doing anything to solve it. It is fortunate that we will tie Owens' hands for the next two years. As for Salazar, he resonates. He has found a way reach out to people. And while he has a kind demeanor, he can be tough. He gets things done. He has a good grip on issues. Coors did not seem to have that much of a grip on issues. I think he ran because Owens couldn't.

[cheezus]

42. I'm a 15 year tech veteran with a degree in computer science.

and I plan to use those skills to help the party. If any liberal organizations need tech help, drop me a PM

[KittyWampus]

51. Walt, please do me a favor and give a hypothetical example of how

democrats can do the same thing that GOP did by running Keyes.

PLEASE!

Make up an example to illustrate this... including TYPE of data that could be drawn out and HOW it could be utilized.

PLEASE!

I get the jist of what you are saying here... but can't get the entire picture.

Also, please note that Paperless E-Voting IS open to fraud, there IS data and statistics pointing to them having already CAUSED fraud

Kerry MAY very well have won SEVERAL battleground states but GOP has already had SEVERAL election cycles to figure out the best way to make it less obvious.-+

I really don't want to argue about the paperless e-voting in this thread... and I STRONGLY think Dems need to talk about Values and how WE EMBODY most people's core beliefs...

but could you take a bit of time to construct a hypothetical example of how Democrats could run their version of Keyes in some equivalent state to gather whatever kind of data your talking about... and what the data would mean when analyised correctly.. and how it could lbe used.

I really want to understand what you're getting at here.

[Walt Starr]

54. First of all, the Republicans took a HUGE risk by running Keyes

The Keyes data, while important to the GOP is VITAL to the Democrats if they only analyze it with the correct surrounding assumptions. It's an open book to us, we simply have to pick it up and read it because that data clearly defines how and where the GOP is both weakest and strongest in the state.

The beauty of the Keyes data is the preciseness of the disribution of the core GOP constituency. The advantage we gain in Illionois from this data if we properly analyze it is that there is no mathcing preciseness in the distribution of the key Democratic Party core constituency. This is not a real problem for us because we have some broader ideas of our strengths in the state and we have been doing well here for the past three cycles.

If we ignore it, we will be devastated by it. If we actually pick up the open book and read it, WE CAN DESTROY THE IL GOP FOR DECADES TO COME!

The same data exists in all states, though nowehere nearly so precise. Proper analysis can be applied to draw similar conclusions on consituency distribution in order to capitalize on the their weaknesses while not expending resources on their strong areas.

[KittyWampus]

59. GiveA HypotheticalExample For Democrats If You Can

[Walt Starr]

61. Well, we already have a good example of something similarly precise in GA

Georgia's Majette data is very telling.

[Socialist Dem]

58. Do you live in Illinois?

1) There is strong evidence that the Alan Keyes run was suggested and blessed at the national level by the RNC.
Strong evidence? Keyes WAS FORCED on the Illinois GOP, and they don't mind telling that to anyone with a microphone. It's well known here that Rove was the prime force in getting Keyes on the ballot. It was a case of "lets run our black guy against their black guy".

2) Alan Keyes likes to play the martyr and the RNC knows this.
As far as the Illinos GOP goes, after Ryan quit, they knew that Obama couldn't be beat. They had trouble finding anyone who wanted that kind of crushing loss on their political record. Far better to concide this year and run stronger against Durbin in 2006. Keyes was a sacraficial canidate, and if that makes him some kind of martyr in his own mind, so be it.

3) Alan Keyes only appeals to the very core of the Republican base. He turns off the moderates in the extreme.
Keyes only apeals to religous zelots, and straight ticket voters who don't consider the canidates. His canidecy was a joke, and he was never taken seriously here.

4) The RNC would love to make inroads into Illinois and eventually turn this solidly blue state red.
OF COURSE the RNC would love to make inroads. Illinois is a very different kind of state politically. You have Chicago, then you have the rest of the state. They are two very different areas, as even some of the rich suburbs around Chicago regularly go Republican (Henry Hyde for one is from a suburban district). Chicago does NOT represent what Illinois is like, and Illinois does NOT represent what Chicago is like. The largest population is in the city, and that's where the power base in Illinois flows from right now. The thought of the RNC controlling Chicago is absurd, and they already have a lot of the rest of the state red as it is. So, in my opinion, the RNC is pretty much stuck where it is in Illinois.

[Walt Starr]

60. Yes, I do live in Illinois

Look to ward breakdowns in Chicago, you only need a a percentage of the Chicago vote and positioning your efforts in a cost effective manner is what it's all about.

Remember, the IL GOP has contolled the legislature in the past and look at how long a Republican governor was the standard.

You are correct, it's a very different state, but Chicago is not the end all be all of the state's power. It's a base of power for the Democrats, yes, but the other urban areas of the state went blue this cycle, too. Those areas like Urbana and Springfield can easily be changed to red and that, my friend, is how the RNC changes a solidly blue Illinois to a red Illinois without expending much effort in Chicago at all.

[Socialist Dem]

62. Yep, you're right

I think the RNC has already done that as far as downstate goes. If you looked at the county map, Cook was about the only one that was solidly democratic. Cook county is the major revenue base for the state, and the state govt. must be able to work with Daley in order to get things done. True, the Republicans were in charge for a long time in Springfield, but they failed to do much of anything simply because people like Jim Edgar refused to work with Chicago, and ended up getting their asses kicked. Now, in 2006, even though I think Durbin is safe, the State Govt. is in play. I know the RNC is gonna kick the "morals" campaign into high gear.

I'm just saying that I think the RNC has gone about as far as it can until it can make inroads into Cook, and I think we all know about how likely that is.

[Walt Starr]

64. Kick

for the late afternoon crowd.

[Q]

66. I noticed your posts over at CONSERVATIVE UNDERGROUND

...the site the mocks and demonizes DUers. Are you THAT hard up for recognition that you'll crawl around in the gutter looking for someone to agree with you?

- I've lost all respect for you. Not because you have 'different' ideas about strategy...but because you try to play both sides at the same time.

[Walt Starr]

68. Ahhh, yes. I post at that "Other Site" as of today

I consider it valuable research into a specific mindset that will pay untold dividends in the future with a minimal investment of time up front.

See, for more than two decades I lived with Joe Sixpack as my set of friends while living in the belly of the beast, Wyoming (a more despicable den of rightwing nutballs you'll never find!).

I've lived too long in True Blue Illinois and need to hone my skill set on conveying of ideas to the middle-right mindset. See, most people here at DU at best consider the middle-left portion of the electorate as our target audience. The success of the Republican Party over the past three election cycles has been centered on specifically targeted efforts at the middle-left rather than just the middle-right.

The key here is the Republicans are playing for all the marbles. They want it all, a red nation from sea to shining sea.

I'm answering them with an equal but opposite reaction.

[sangh0]

82. What was Q doing at CU?

He questions Walt for going to CU even though Q goes there himself.

hmmmm

[Q]

87. Have you replaced Carlos as the board clown?

- At the risk of being banned...I have to say that you're a real prick. Not because you follow me around like a yapping lap dog and try to piss on my leg...but because you're a legend in your own mind. You're the ticket taker...the loyalty oath checker that isn't allowed inside the gate.

- I question Walt for POSTING there and trying to commiserate with those who act and think like you...except their loyalty is to the other side.

- But I'm sure they LOVE YOU though. You're they're kind of liberal-hating boy.

[Walt Starr]

90. Q, you have missed both my and sangh0's point. There is little time

and a ton of work to do.

Niceties must be set aside. Ego must be forgone.

It is time for BRUTAL HONESTY in the examination of our position and failure to do so could have repercussions too dire to contemplate.

[sangh0]

91. What were you doing at CU?

I noticed you didn't answer that question.

hmmm

[DemocratSinceBirth]

108. I Peeked There...

It's as foul as freak republic...

[Walt Starr]

116. But they don't ban liberals on sight like FR

so it becomes a good research area, and interaction is key to accurate research.

[tritsofme]

70. Will Blagojevich get out of the primaries?

Methinks Lisa Madigan wants the prize...

[Walt Starr]

72. A Democratic battle for the nomination of governor in Illinois would spell

D-I-S-A-S-T-E-R!!!!!!!!!!!!

Madigan should sit it out if she loves her party. If the Daley political machine continues as is without reform, the Democrats will only hasten their own defeat.

[tritsofme]

75. Maybe Blago will hang it up

and make a failed run for the presidency?

[Walt Starr]

77. Blago had better give up any hope of the presidency for the next 16 years

No Democrat from North of the Mason dixon line should run for at least four more cycles.

[Trahurn]

73. OH Yeah Right

That's why Keyes lost by such an embarrassing margin he can't even show his face

[Walt Starr]

76. Well you obviously didn't read past the subject line!

:eyes:

[Q]

89. And Walt...they ran Keyes because it was a throw-away seat...

...and nobody wanted to spend their political capital on a race where they knew the opposition win was a sure thing. Keyes was a placeholder.

- Where we will see you next? Free Republic? You certainly have the right to post anywhere you desire...but why so blatantly in a place that hates DUers guts and in a thread that specifically mocks our beliefs? It's one thing to watch their insanity...but quite another to participate.

- Is this a split personality thing? Or are you just expanding your horizons?

[sangh0]

92. Why were YOU in aplace that hates DUers guts?

.

[Walt Starr]

93. I explained that in a direct respones to your ioriginal question

I suggest you re-read that post. The keywords to remember are "market research".

[Trahurn]

94. You're right I didnd't. I didn't want to

Just the name of Alen Keyes makes me sick at my stomach. My problem but I'll manage.

[dogman]

83. Keyes was brought in to solidify the base.

It was Rove's contention that they lost 2000 because 4 million Fundies stayed home. This was an effort to energize them and it worked. These people network just like we do and they were inspired by the call to arms. The downstate is hammered with the message that the Dems represent Chicago and that hurts the downstate interests. While marching with the Dems in a parade on Halloween we were greeted with cries of go back to Chicago even though we were local people. they hollared baby killers even though we had children on our float. These are the base and when energised they are vocal. We have made inroads in our county by using methods taught by Paul Simon which is where Obama organizers trained. It is important to get out our grassroots but it is very difficult. The Fundies are indocrinated weekly, monthly, and yearly. This is the source of their strength. As noted elsewhere the rural churches are a social force. We need the Christian left to stand up, not just in the black churches. Most churches get their ministers from RW indoctrination centers like Jones U and Liberty. These people are cranked out and sent on missions thrughout the world and then come back here and spread the agenda throughout our communities. We used to have the Peace Corps and Visa but now B$$$ is replacing this wit faith based and funneling our tax dollars into his base. all the data in the world will not counter act this power.

[jacksonian]

85. right, but still the fight is only going to be easier

with the data instead of without it.

[Walt Starr]

86. BINGO!

If the Democrats use the data, they have a precise measurement of the distribution of the core GOP consituency in Illinois. This gives us a distinct advantage in all future elections.

My problem with this is, I see no effoprts by the Democrats to even accept this reality, let alone actually examine the data at the necessary level of granularity!

[dogman]

97. My impression this year was that Illinois is taken for granted.

There was a lot of groundwork done because of the Unity B$$$ provided ou Party. Funds were diverted to the battlegrounds and those were chosen more by the GOP I believe. Last year the TV showed the new Dem headquarters in D.C. that house all the brains (human and machine). I don't know if any of this is adequate for small areas. I.m not familiar with the State level. I know the GOP has a lot of money on the ground because we have the speaker in our midst.

[Walt Starr]

122. Yep, and my predicition is it will be similarly taken for granted in 2006

I'm pretty sure the RNC is hoping for that reaction, too, because that could make it a surprise battleground state in 2008.

[dogman]

95. Yes but the first requirement is common sense.

Until this comes about the data will never be used properly. There was agood discussion of this topic today on Franken. His guest Tom Frank has written a book "What's Wrong With Kansas". Also later with Joe Conason and Bobby Kennedy. Tom mentioned that when he brings these ideas up in conversation with the D.C. Dems they scoff at him. There is also an article in the Sun Times that credits similar observations by Daley.
http://www.suntimes.com/output/elect/cst-nws-daley05.html
We have a lot to analyze and their will be local elections in the spring. While we are waiting for data we need grass roots. As Dems they are just not available. A lot of Dems work a full time job and don't have the luxury of spare time. They get a lot of their support out every Sabbath.

[jacksonian]

99. you know, I've read Tom Frank's Kansas book

and the George Lakoff (sp?) stuff people are talking about, I did not scoff, but I can't say I don't understand a little bit the scoffing. Not that anything is wrong, not at all, there's a lot of truth in that book and questions that need to be asked - but it's just simplistic.

Snap shots and tape recordings, but no movement to get ahead of things. You will never know people by knowing what they are, because what people really are is defined by what they want to be. Frank really makes the same mistake our pollsters and focus group guys do - people don't really think what they tell you they think, because they don't really know what they think in social terms. Language dumbs down all messages.

But I thought Daley's comments in the article you posted were very cogent. He's right, but this "Washington insider doesn't know shit" stuff is not wrong, but a bit simplistic too, right?

[dogman]

101. Yes the games are played at all levels and everyone wants to be a player.

Daley's no exception. Frank told Franken that he's a historiannot an ideas man but gave his opinion anyway. My thought is that the only person that will understand these "values" is someone who shares them or pretends to. They have the pretender, we need a contender.

[jacksonian]

84. sheesh, Walt, the acrimony

you're getting here boggles.

Obviously you've hit on some core principles of DU, one is Keyes is a idiot of the first degree and any association with "effectiveness" sets people off.

You;re right, I knew this before the election. Repugs sort of came down to either running Keyes or a woman, Cantwell I think her name was, who seemed to me to more what Dems would do in that situation: run some unknown to lose and gain some name recognition. They chose Keyes for exactly the reason you're talking about.

I don't think Durbin is at all vulnerable, but targeting the state assembly is more likely their goal. The other advantage to this plan is when Obama runs again the Dems will use this race to try to identify his strong districts - but the data won't be there because too many voted out of lack of choice. What Obama support would look like against a real opponent is clouded.

But it also works in reverse. Dems can now figure how to peel R's off from conservative canidiates.

[mumon]

88. You're absolutely right

I have been in various places advocating a deconstruction of the coalition that the Repubs have right now, through making us more visible.

We need to do the data mining, too, AND we need to organize, AND we need a simple enough message that Joe Sixpack remembers it after he's had 24.

[Trahurn]

96. There I read the post. All of it

And I find it a very interesting and critical look at the Keyes candidacy. However that is pretty much as far I as will go as I do not think using the Allen Keyes candidacy as how the democrats need to run for office in the future other than an interesting observation or "commentary" on the issue. Personally I would love to see more Allen Keyes run as they have just about as much chance as he did.

[bigtree]

100. Sure, let's mimic the republicans

If we spend all of our time picking the brains of conservatives we deserve to lose. If we attempt manufactured appeals to these folks we deserve to lose. Our party came within a couple hundred thousand votes out of millions cast to victory. We got there because we appealed enough to our base to get them to the polls. If we lead with our beliefs, which I think are outstanding, than folks will follow. It is our ambivalence about these core Democratic values that allowed some voters to identify with the opposition who was united in their inanity. We need to stand firmly where we are planted. My values aren't for sale to the highest bidder. Maybe that is the problem Walt. We seem so willing to compromise on our core beliefs. We need to stand firm in our beliefs and not be deterred by folks who would have us dilute our view of our own morality to get a few more votes in an election.

[MadMichDem]

102. We've already been "Repub-Lite" and

that doesn't work. I think what Walt is saying is find out what made these people vote for Keyes and what they want and value. THEN frame OUR platform or whatever in a way that appeals to them. An example I like is when Hillary Clinton was asked whether she would change her vote for the war if she knew then what we know now. She answered "There wouldn't have been a vote". She framed the debate on HER terms instead of trying to justify her vote. Does that make any sense to anyone besides myself????

[bigtree]

103. Yeah it did

And if we bother to echo and further our OWN views we will achieve more than mirroring indefensible positions and views that have been the hallmark of the republican opposition. WMD'S? Tax cuts for the wealthy presented as across the board? building new nukes to protect us? What the hell do these folks represent that is real enough to echo?

[jacksonian]

104. yes that makes sense

but reread what Walt is saying, it's really the opposite. He's saying by looking at Keyes support we can now identify the parts of IL that have such blind faith to conservatism or Republicans that we can avoid wasting our money and talent there. What is interesting from a Dem point of view is the areas that did not vote Keyes - compare with past voting records and you can find the Repug leaners that won't go all the way right, target them specifically and cost-effectively, and hopefully keep 'em in a more contested race.

Yes, your Hillary example is a good one. Frame the debate.

[West Coast Democrat]

105. Look Here: Moral Values Malarkey

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=962455

(I'm getting tired of your posts)

[Walt Starr]

112. If you're tired of my posts, you have an out.

The good folks who run this web site gave you a nice feature to avoid all of my posts.

I'm trying to do something about the debacle that occurred on November 2nd instead of wasting my time pulling my hair out ping ponging beteen conspiracy theories that rage against the machines and raging against bigotted rednecks.

To paraphrase a great man, "stop crying in your teacup".

[West Coast Democrat]

113. duplicate post

[West Coast Democrat]

114. The man couldn't muster 30% of the vote...

you're giving him WAY too much credit.

Go back and think it over. Anti-Gay marriage is one thing, extremehomophobia is another thing entirely.

I'm not crying in my teacup. I think you are.

[Politicub]

106. Your subject line isn't a fact

It's a opinion. There's a huge difference.

And while your post was interesting, I'm not so sure I agree with your premise. The Alan Keyes thing was bizarre, but my theory is that GOP knew it didn't have a chance to win in IL, so they didn't care who ran. Voila -- rent a whore Alan Keyes.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

107. you rock.......

Bill Nelson's up for re election in 06....

Can the pugs send Keyes to run here to do a reconnaissance mission?

[lil-petunia]

109. No effing way. Keyes has nothing to do with it.

The real problem lies in the democrats that make up this state.

Mayor Daley is blessed with a beautiful city. He runs the most corrupt organization which controls it.

Gov. Bloggo is blessed with a rich, educated, and fiscally capable stated. He runs the second most corrupt oranization which now controls is. The most corrupt was the GOP governor who preceeded him and is now indicted along with 30 or so of his highest aides.

Both the GOP and Democratic parties are in tatters, with rags covering major foundationl problems. That is because both sides cooperate in feeding from the public trough to such excess that the average voter would rather boot both local parties out of the state and deep into Lake Michigan, with huge chains and concrete blocks attached to both legs.

It is impossible to read anything into Keyes' candidacy other than this
the GOP really fucked up.
both sides are filled with corruption and bribery.
thinking that any of these yahoos are capable of creating a long term plan, much less, carrying one out - yea, please pass whatever it is that you smoke. I'd love a hit myself

[Walt Starr]

118. I disagree fundamentally

A state in such a corrupt morass of collusion between both parties is ripe for the pickings, and Illinois is most certainly that!

I guarantee you, Illinois has been targeted for a color change. Bank on it. If I'm right you could see some pretty dramatic changes in the makeup of Illinois politics in 2006. If the Democrats are complete fools Blago will be taken on by Madigan in the primaries and we'll end up with yet another Republican governor!

Add a few seats in the legislature and we are even more ripe for 2008.

[Obviousman]

110. my concern

My concern is that Blagojevich has turned off certain elements of the democratic party and we may see a rift that will allow a republican to take office. however, with the huge trend toward democrats in illinois, i dont see much hope for this. however, if the repubs are to make inroads in illinois, we need to watch the governor race very carefully and try not to let rifts develope

[immoderate]

111. So are we going to tailor our message on the basis of

statisical analysis, rather than the principles we believe in?

Furthermore, can we ignore what is known about complex systems, but some here don't?

I go with the crapshoot theory. And the way to win is to be right. We won't win on every roll, but we will prevail in the long run.

--IMM

[dogman]

115. No but we can get even with Delay and gerrymander them out of

the game like he did the Dems in Texas before they take control and do it to us.

[Walt Starr]

121. Go ahead with the crapshoot theory but remember, Kerry outspent Bush

The Democratic 527's had a helluva lot more cash than the Republican 527's.

Overall, we spent more to lose than they spent to win.

Which side ran the more cost effective campaign?

[Tweed]

117. HAHAHAHAHA!!!!! The GOP will win an election in Illinois?!?!

Thank you for the GREAT joke!

[Walt Starr]

120. They already do and have

Illinois is not exclusively controlled by Chicago. I learned that when Fitzgerald destroyed Mosely-Braun in '98.

[dogman]

123. If it weren't for the corruption under G. Ryan they would probably

still control this state. Don't forget Hastert and his power. Their leadership got caught and/or retired for the most part.

[Walt Starr]

124. And the fact that the leadership that colluded with the Dem machine

is on the out means this is ripe for direct control by the RNC to oversee the plucking of a Democratic Family Jewel.

[bagnana]

125. Case in point: the Amish

I agree with this post. The repubs analyzed every district of Ohio and mined every last bigot-anti-gay vote down to the last freaking Amish person (which I thought was a joke during the election but am crying about now). They were effective in squeezing these votes out and overcoming the urban vote. We handled the urban vote well. NOw all we have to do is the same damn thing on the rural vote. We need to do is squeeze out every single progressive vote in every single community. We need to start a democratic base in every county in every town in every state and even if it is only one progressive sitting in his barn we have that one freaking vote.

[meganmonkey]

126. A very small, but relevant group of people

I don't know a lot about Illinois politics, so I am looking at this more from the view of the presidential election...

I used to scoff the Repugs GOTV effort with the Amish. But ultimately, it is an important lesson. I agree with what Will says about needing a deep level of analysis. I don't think he is saying that we need to appeal to the same people they're trying to appeal to. We don't need to go after the Amish or the anti-abortion, pro-gun people. I don't think Will is talking about being 'republican-lite', as someone put it earlier. Rather, we need to figure out how to frame the debate better in a way that will excite people - as opposed to letting the Repugs frame the debate and then reacting to their platform. Because, since they picked the issues (i.e.gay marriage amendments in how many states?), they were ready with their soundbites and we weren't. And to know what the right issues are to focus on, we need to analyze, analyze, analyze the data to understand the people. The people who aren't voting, or who are barely voting, or barely paying attention.

The fact is, the Republicans are winning a lot (they're cheating a lot too, but that's not what this thread is about). They are doing something right. It isn't a matter of preaching what they're preaching, but maybe there is something to learn about their method.

The fact that all the areas of the country who have been (or would ever possibly be) attacked by terrorists, and where a gay couple holding hands is just another couple holding hands, all voted Democratic in huge proportions. NYC 80%, right?.
The people in the middle of the country, far from cities, with few, if any, openly gay folks (gee, wonder why), oddly enough, are the security moms and 'moral values' obsessed. And the Amish, for goodness' sake. Because the Bushies framed the debate just right.
We need to figure out the Dem version of that. We need to understand the people who aren't in the big cities, who aren't cosmopolitan, but who are progressive. And we need to target them. That sounds manipulative, maybe it kinda is, but I think its necessary. And we would not be using fear like the repugs.