Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

Florida Senate vs Presidential races

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
 
yowzayowzayowza Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 03:33 AM
Original message
Florida Senate vs Presidential races
Edited on Wed Nov-03-04 03:49 AM by yowzayowzayowza
Keeping in mind that Castor is looking for a recount in her Florida Senate race:

(On edit: and the number of outstanding absentee ballots)

Florida - President
3,831,266 Bush
3,457,256 Kerry
=========
374,010 Margin

Florida - Senate:
3,547,299 Martinez
3,468,066 Castor
==========
79,233 Margin

Democratic difference
3,457,256 Kerry
3,468,066 Castor
=========
-10,810 Margin

Republican difference
3,831,266 Bush
3,547,299 Martinez
=========
+283,967 Margin

Sooo, where'd the extra Bush votes come from? Those votes would amount to 76% of the Bush margin of victory. Did 3.9% of voters really show up to vote for Bush only? Would be interesting to compare the other down-ticket races as well.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
yowzayowzayowza Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 04:01 AM
Response to Original message
1. Ideas?
How much of the Bush exit poll discrepancy would these votes identify?
:kick:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 04:04 AM
Response to Original message
2. Very interesting
I was planning to do comparisons like that beginning tomorrow.

Another puzzle is how we do so much better in Florida senate races than presidential races during a presidential year. Nelson won big in 2000, far ahead of Gore's numbers even if every ballot had been perfect, and Castor fared much better than Kerry this year.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
derbstyron Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 04:07 AM
Response to Original message
3. keep in mind that Castor is more moderate than Kerry
And she ran her campaign as a "Graham Democrat", a moderate. The only way to get elected in this right-wing wacko state. One interesting thing of note though (at last check anyway) she is carrying all three central florida counties and the I-4 corridor.
This sucks :(
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
yowzayowzayowza Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 04:12 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. No, no, no.
The Kerry/Castor difference is only -10k. The weird margin is Bush/Martinez.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
derbstyron Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 04:19 AM
Response to Reply #4
5. I know
I just think it's interesting that she's carrying central FL and Kerry isn't (minus any stolen votes, mind you). Of course, part of this can be explained as she is from the Tampa Bay area (former university president). A liberal will never carry this state by a decent (read: theft preventing) margin due to the rednecks and religious people in the north and the panhandle.
The disappoint thing in this election for me (from the Tampa Bay area) is asshole's win (alledgely) in the I-4 corridor. I don't have the numbers offhand but I think Gore did better.
:(
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
yowzayowzayowza Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 04:36 AM
Response to Reply #5
6. Kerry only got 0.14% less than Castor.
Bush got 3.85% MORE than Martinez.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
derbstyron Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 04:39 AM
Response to Reply #6
7. sorry
That just sunk in. It's late and I'm tired.
something NOT right. You are correct.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
independentpiney Donating Member (966 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 05:01 AM
Response to Original message
8. The *-Martinez difference is a red flag
Something very strange there.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
mzmolly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 05:37 AM
Response to Original message
9. .
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
yowzayowzayowza Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 06:34 AM
Response to Original message
10. Time fer some
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzs.
:kick:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
progdonkey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 06:51 AM
Response to Original message
11. Veterans Party
Edited on Wed Nov-03-04 06:51 AM by progdonkey
This appears to be a RW Libertarian group that was on the ballot with Martinez and Castor, garnering 162363 votes, or 2% according to ABC. It's very probable that everyone who voted for the VET candidate voted for Bush, which would leave the unexplained gap between the Senate and Presidential races at 121604.

That's still a suspiciously large gap--and that's assuming every VET voter voted for Bush.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
progdonkey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 07:23 AM
Response to Reply #11
12. actually, I'm now thinking it's a red herring...
It's well known that in every election there are people who don't understand that you have to vote for every office on the ballot. That is, they think that voting for George Bush means they're voting for the Republicans across the board, so they don't select anything else.

I don't know if there would be 100,000 of these stupid people in Florida, but it's possible.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view 
this author's profile Click to add 
this author to your buddy list Click to add 
this author to your Ignore list Sat Aug 30th 2014, 08:15 PM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]
 Top

Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC