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Kerry winning Exit Polls - FRAUD LOOKS PROBABLE

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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-04 10:54 PM
Original message
Kerry winning Exit Polls - FRAUD LOOKS PROBABLE
Edited on Tue Nov-02-04 11:42 PM by SoCalDemocrat
EDIT:

Analysis of the polling data vs actual data and voting systems supports the hypothesis that evoting may be to blame in the discrepancies. Nevada has evoting but with verified receipts. In that state the Exit Polling matches the actual results within .1% accuracy. However for other swing states Bush has unexplainable leads.

I'm still compiling data. Please help me determine what voting methods are being used in swing states and which are evoting without audit trails. Post your data under the individual state responses below.

-------------------------------------------

Kerry is well ahead in exit polls, but still losing the counts. WTH is going on?

Kerry is well ahead in Exit Polling in Ohio. We're being screwed.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/O...

Male: 51/49 Kerry 47%
Female: 53/47 Kerry 53%

Dem: 91/8 Kerry 38%
Rep: 94/6 Bush 37%
Ind: 60/39 Kerry 24%



Here is exit polling for Florida (3,824,794 votes for Kerry & Bush)

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/F...

Male: 52/47 Kerry 46%
Female: 52/48 Kerry 54%

Dem: 86/13 Kerry 38%
Rep: 92/7 Bush 39%
Ind: 60/38 Kerry 23%

3,824,794 votes for Kerry & Bush
2065388 Women (54% of total)
1759405 Men (46% of total)

Bush leads male vote by 5% of M = 87970

Kerry leads female vote by 4% of M = 82615

That means Bush is ahead by just 5355 votes in exit polling in FL.

Another odd thing is that there are more Reps then Dems in Florida by 1%, which is not expected. Either there are more voting Republicans in FL than Democrats, a first and not matching known statistics, or more Republicans were exit polled than Democrats. If the exit poll is off by just 1% that's a difference of 382479 more voters who are Democracts.

The results being posted however show Bush ahead 326,000 actual votes. This is simply not possible from the exit polling numbers. Even skewed for a 5% higher Republican vs. Democrat turnout from 2000, it doesn't add up.


WISCONSIN:

Kerry leads Female voters by 7%, Bush leads male voters by 7%. Male vs. Female voter turnout is 47% M, 53% F. That means Kerry statistically has a 7% edge in exit polling in Wisconsin.

Actual results however show Bush ahead by 1%, an unexplained difference of 8%.

NEVADA:

Just checked, same pattern. Kerry leads in the exit polls by a clear margin, but is still behind in the reported results. This state is even closer. Actual is just 1% favor of Bush. Exit polls show Kerry with a wider margin. Women favored Kerry by 8% here out of 52% of total voters. Men favored Bush by just 6% out of 48% of total voters. Actual reported results don't match exit polling AT ALL in Nevada.

*** KERRY leads by 1.3% in exit polls in NV ***



Can someone determine what percentage of precincts are DIEBOLD or electronic voting machines in these swing states? Of those compare the expected voting results from Male vs. Female against the results reported by electronic vs. non-electronic voting places.

My HYPOTHESIS is we will find a discrepancy in the electronic systems vs. the exit polls and the non-electronic systems.
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Mandate My Ass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-04 10:54 PM
Response to Original message
1. Theft
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:44 AM
Response to Reply #1
78. Proof CNN is tampering with the election to cover the fraud
Edited on Wed Nov-03-04 01:46 AM by SoCalDemocrat
I ran CNN's own numbers. It's impossible. Between the two screen shots below, exactly 57 more persons were polled. If every single one of them were female, and every single one of them voted for Bush, that would account for a 2.3% increase in the exit polling results for female voters. However, CNN shows a 6% increase for Female voters supporting Bush.

CNN has altered other exit polling data since I began tracking it and compiling evidence against the EVoting machines.

Thanks to DU member EarlG for grabbing these screen shots!



Kerry up 2 among men, up 6 among women.

At 1:41am they changed the results to favor Bush:

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progdonkey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 04:30 AM
Response to Reply #78
112. delete....
Edited on Wed Nov-03-04 04:45 AM by progdonkey
Sorry, too tired.... ;-)
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:59 PM
Response to Reply #78
162. AP exit poll data tampered with, not CNN

This was not just CNN. They must of been getting a shared feed. Apparently there are six major news networks that collected and shared polling data from last nights election.

I checked MSNBC and they have the same modified data for OH that we took screen shots of late last night.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5297182/
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 02:06 AM
Response to Reply #1
83. I've reported this to BlackBoxVoting

I need help from DU to spread the word to the media.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 02:40 AM
Response to Reply #1
91. CNN Story - Republicans blocked exit polling in Ohio
Edited on Wed Nov-03-04 03:07 AM by SoCalDemocrat
http://cnnstudentnews.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/11/01/ca... /

"Also Monday, The Associated Press and television networks sued Ohio's top election official, Republican Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell, over a recent order banning exit polling within 100 feet of a polling station. The media groups use exit polls, or voter questionnaires, to help explain who voted and why."

There's another story today about the Bush administration commenting on Exit Polling being unreliable in swing states. I heard it on the radio and need to find a printed source.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:58 PM
Response to Reply #1
160. MSNBC is using the same data we saw modified

It's not just the CNN site.

Wherever they got their exit polling data from was changed underneath us late last night.

The MSNBC site has the same data for Ohio exit polls which we have screen shots for.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5297182 /

I cannot do any further state by state analysis on the exit poll data as I can no longer trust any of it is reliable. We will have to use the snap shots we had as of last night. If others have screen shots of exit poll results we can try to go from those, or possibly from news broadcasts that reported results last night as they came in.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 02:21 PM
Response to Reply #1
180. Voter Turnout Census Bureau Data


217.8 million
Number of voting-age U.S. residents. Of this number, 153.9 million were single-race non-Hispanic white, 26.4 million were black, 26.3 million Hispanic, 10.0 million Asian, 3.0 million American Indian or Alaska native and 647,000 native Hawaiian or other Pacific islander. (A portion of all these residents are ineligible to vote because they are noncitizens.)
<http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archiv... >

California had the highest number of residents 18 and older (26.1 million) in 2003, followed by Texas (15.9 million), New York (14.7 million), Florida (13.1 million) and Pennsylvania (9.5 million). <http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archiv... >

California added the highest number of voting-age persons since 2000 (1.4 million), followed by Texas (913,000), Florida (759,000), and Georgia and New York (371,000 each). Nationally, 8.6 million adult residents were added.
<http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archiv... >

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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 02:23 PM
Response to Reply #180
181. 120 million votes were cast - not all counted

Part of the discrepancy lies with absentee and provisional ballots, which are much higher this year. Provisional ballots are also much more likely not to be counted.

------------

Driven by an intense race for the presidency, a greater percentage of Americans voted Tuesday than at any time in more than three decades.

Figures tabulated Wednesday by The Associated Press showed that 114.3 million people had voted with 99 percent of precincts reporting. However, about 120 million people cast ballots, including 5.5 million to 6 million absentee and provisional ballots yet to be counted, said Curtis Gans, director of the nonpartisan Committee for the Study of the American Electorate.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 01:31 PM
Response to Reply #1
239. Excellent report written by dr. Steven Freeman
Steven Freeman PhD, took the analysis and ran with it!

http://www.buzzflash.com/alerts/04/11/The_unexplained_e...
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DireStrike Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-04 10:55 PM
Response to Original message
2. Theft
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GiovanniC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-04 10:55 PM
Response to Original message
3. There Is a Fat Lady Who Isn't Singing in Ohio Yet
We will win Ohio.

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in_cog_ni_to Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-04 10:58 PM
Response to Reply #3
10. KKKRove and Diebold will not let us win Ohio.
If they do, I'll take this statement back.
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GiovanniC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-04 11:30 PM
Response to Reply #10
19. We Will Win Ohio
We have already won it. All they have to do is count the damn votes. Let them do their jobs.

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endnote Donating Member (645 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:08 AM
Response to Reply #10
30. I tought Ohio was not using Diebold machines anymore....
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Radio-Active Donating Member (735 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:26 AM
Response to Reply #30
41. vote tabulators
can be fixed, even if we aren't using diebold.

that's why we need a RECOUNT in Ohio.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:35 AM
Response to Reply #30
48. From what I can tell they used AccuPoll
A confirmation from a DU'er here would be great. According to this story they used AccuPoll which create voter-verified paper trails. This would be the 2nd swing state with paper trails where the exit polls match the actual results. 2 for 2 results.

June 10, 2004


With all the DU'ers here, I cannot believe one of us is not from Ohio. Lets get some up to date info from the ground!

http://www.fcw.com/geb/articles/2004/0607/web-accupoll -...

----
Ohio state officials have certified touch-screen voting machines from AccuPoll Inc. for use in the state. AccuPoll's machines create a voter-verified paper record.

Such paper records are at the heart of the debate over touch-screen machines, formally called Direct Recording Electronic (DRE) machines. Other vendors do not offer the feature unless election officials specifically request it. Critics of electronic voting say that fraud or errors in the machine's recording of votes could go undetected without an external record that could be used to audit results.

"This is a significant event because Ohio has been on the forefront of the debate," said Frank Wiebe, president of AccuPoll, in a statement. Ohio recently passed a law requiring the paper trail, he added.
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kurt_cagle Donating Member (294 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:15 AM
Response to Reply #48
67. But NOT for this election cycle
If I remember correctly, this law was set to take effect in 2006. Similar situation with California, which banned Diebold systems, but only for after THIS election.

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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:23 AM
Response to Reply #67
70. Right, they may not have audit trails in Ohio

There are nearly hundreds of thousands of DU members.

Some of you MUST be from Ohio?!!!

Help us out, confirm or deny whether audit trials were turned on for EVoting.

If there are no audit trials, the Bush camp must answer for the 5% discrepancy in those states between exit polls and observed voting results.

EVERY SINGLE STATE with audit trials showed the same results in exit polling as they showed in actual results.

EVERY SINGLE STATE without audit trails appears skewed by a similar amount in favor of Bush.

The big question remaining is whether Ohio was one of those states. Ohio exit polls do match up, but that doesn't mean it is not suspect like the others. If they had no audit trails, then it's extremely suspect.
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Marthe48 Donating Member (473 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 08:23 AM
Response to Reply #70
132. in our part still paper ballots
earlier this year, 8 counties started a lawsuit to prevent getting electronic machines in their counties. And Diebold's home county wouldn't use Diebold machines (I can't remember the cty--(Franklin?) I've lived in Ohio all my life, but if Bush pulls this crap off, I don't think the things that kept me here will matter anymore. Canada is looking better and better.

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Joanne98 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 06:36 PM
Response to Reply #70
214. I'm from Ohio. I don't think we got audit trails.
But I'm not sure. My county had punch cards.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 12:35 AM
Response to Reply #214
236. No audit trails in OH

Not even any exit pollers within 100 feet.
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Seabiscuit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 02:03 AM
Response to Reply #67
82. Diebold machines HAVE been banned in CA for this election!
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alittlelark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 11:55 PM
Response to Reply #82
218. Also in CA - I voted absentee, and hubby voted touchscreen
w/no paper trail - santa Clara County
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GOTV Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 06:44 AM
Response to Reply #48
123. I am from Ohio...
... and I voted on a punchcard.
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merliecurlie Donating Member (9 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 10:48 PM
Response to Reply #123
199. instances of voter interference
does anyone have stories (ie callers telling voters that election day was postponed, destruction of registrations, etc.)?
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 03:14 PM
Response to Reply #199
213. thousands

We have thousands of those archived in a seperate forum. There are other websites with databases as well.
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shelley806 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:03 AM
Response to Reply #3
26. You are still up? thought you'd gone to bed..
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Township75 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-04 10:55 PM
Response to Original message
4. exit polls are voluntary...
and you can tell the pollster whatever you want.

Votes don't lie, so they are what counts
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DireStrike Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-04 10:56 PM
Response to Reply #4
9. Yeah I love how the exit polls are accurate everywhere else.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:04 AM
Response to Reply #9
28. E-Voting without paper trails = discrepancy for BUSH

Check the results. I'm adding them up, and more and more the hypothesis is being proven correct.

If the voting system has paper trails, the exit polls match the results.

If the voting system is electronic without secured audit trails, Bush has a large and unexplainable gain over Kerry in posted results.

I ask DU members to help me collect more info. Find out what states have audit trails on their voting vs. those that do not, and lets get to the bottom of this mess.
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Princess Turandot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:17 AM
Response to Reply #28
36. CBS reported that 70% of Ohio uses the punch-card system..
ala the hanging chads to vote.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:37 AM
Response to Reply #36
50. That's consistent with national use

1/3 of the U.S. is voting electronic.

OH however is reported to be using AccuPoll in the other 1/3. Whether the paper audit trails for e-ballots are being used in OH I don't know.

We need to confirm this.

Exit polls appear to sync up in Ohio. However if 1/3 are EVote and that was skewed, it could easily be buried in the 2/3 who voted manually and exit polled stronger for Kerry. The race is close enough that skewing a small percentage of the EVote would be enough to tip this for Bush.
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Jane Austin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:14 AM
Response to Reply #4
32. Of course votes lie - - when they aren't counted.
n/t
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mistertrickster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 11:14 AM
Response to Reply #4
145. Your faith in the voting system is truly touching. But if people lie, why
does it always skew in the same directions. Dems are nice cooperative people and Repubs want to screw pollsters?

I don't think so. Lying and not responding would be randomized like everything else.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:46 PM
Response to Reply #145
155. This argument fails in NV, NH, ME, IL...

In every state with EVoting that legislated for paper audit trails, or in the case of Maine where they have no EVoting systems, you see the exit polling results matching the precinct reporting results exactly.

Are the citizens of all these states brutally honest after voting, but all the other EVoting states w/o audit trails are lying to skew the results?

The common factor here is the EVoting system w/o the presence of audit trials.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:02 PM
Response to Reply #4
163. That flies in the face of the facts
Edited on Wed Nov-03-04 01:03 PM by SoCalDemocrat
I modeled five states where the exit polls matched exactly with the reported election results for the precincts. Nevada, New Hampshire, Illinois, and Maine. The first three have paper audit trails on their EVoting systems, the fourth, Maine, doesn't use any EVoting machines.


This morning I checked CA and the edit polls match the posted election results. I question the AP data being used now however based on the screen shots we took last night that show the exit polling data being changed out from under us.
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Child_Of_Isis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-04 10:55 PM
Response to Original message
5. Kerry and Edwards will not take this!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! n/t
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LiberalAndProud Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:30 AM
Response to Reply #5
45. I WILL STAND UP. OHIO IS OURS!!!
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harpo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 11:15 AM
Response to Reply #5
146. they "DID" take it...
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mcg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-04 10:55 PM
Response to Original message
6. Theft
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endnote Donating Member (645 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-04 10:56 PM
Response to Original message
7. Somehow, they have control of the vote tabulation...
I'm telling you...
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in_cog_ni_to Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-04 11:01 PM
Response to Reply #7
11. They can easily hack the machines and change the vote totals.
That's what they're doing. Bev Harris has said that NO ONE should concede anything until the electronic voting machines have been checked.
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johnfunk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-04 10:56 PM
Response to Original message
8. Black Box Voting and Jebbie's Banana Republic
And don't forget -- Kerry has about a $24 MILLION nest egg to litigate ballot crime.
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geek tragedy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-04 11:02 PM
Response to Original message
12. Exit polls don't choose the president.
The religious fundies turned out like crazy to ban gay marriage.
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mountebank Donating Member (755 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-04 11:05 PM
Response to Reply #12
13. No shit - but they are used to detect fraud in emerging democracies.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-04 11:12 PM
Response to Reply #12
15. I call Shennanigans on your zealots

38% Democrats, 39% Republicans, 23% Independents

That's what the exit polling breakdown showed us. It's slanted (R) for some reason. Assuming those are the zealots, you still cannot account for the observed results. Bush cannot possibly be ahead by 326,000 votes based on the observed exit polls.
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Joe Turner Donating Member (374 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 02:35 AM
Response to Reply #12
90. Yeah, that was certainly a factor.
The next 4 years will be a hoot if Bubble Boy prevails. He's got to fix all the disasters in America and the World he has created. LOL LOL.

America will be crying out for change in 2 years....we will be back stronger than ever.
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Typecast Modulator Donating Member (36 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-04 11:09 PM
Response to Original message
14. Theft
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-04 11:19 PM
Response to Original message
16. Help me out here
Can someone determine what percentage of precincts are DIEBOLD or electronic voting machines in these swing states? Of those compare the expected voting results from Male vs. Female against the results reported by electronic vs. non-electronic voting places.

My HYPOTHESIS is we will find a discrepancy in the electronic systems vs. the exit polls and the non-electronic systems.

Please add statistics on which precincts are electronic voting systems and the observed results of Male vs. Female voters reported by those systems. I want to contrast them vs. non-electronic precincts and the exit polls.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-04 11:21 PM
Response to Original message
17. SWING STATE VOTERS HELP US OUT

Please report what type of voting system your precinct used in this thread. If you observed anything unusual in the exit polling, mention it as well.
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Mobius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-04 11:32 PM
Response to Reply #17
21. WISCONSIN real paper ballots
will go to kerry, I am sure.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-04 11:29 PM
Response to Original message
18. MICHIGAN also SKEWED

Exit polls show Kerry up by 8% in Michigan.

Actual results show Bush trailing by 3%.

Across the board women are voting for Kerry far more than men vote for Bush, and turnout is higher among women.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-04 11:30 PM
Response to Original message
20. ILLINOIS

Kerry leads exit polls by 2.8% in Illinois.

Bush trails Kerry by just 1% in actual results.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-04 11:32 PM
Response to Original message
22. NEW MEXICO

Kerry leads Bush by 3.8% in exit polls in New Mexico.

Bush leads Kerry by 3% in actual results.

New Mexico is BY FAR the most slanted results yet comparing exit polls to posted results. I'm going to focus on this state to see what type of voting systems they are using...

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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-04 11:36 PM
Response to Reply #22
23. EVoting used in New Mexico

New Mexico is definitely using electronic voting and had problems with it in 2002. Please help find more data.

http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99996523

---
And mistakes do happen. In 2002, touch-screen machines made by Sequoia Voting Systems were implicated in a fiasco in a local election in Bernalillo county, New Mexico. The system registered only 36,000 votes out of the 48,000 that had been cast. It turned out that the error occurred after votes were downloaded from individual machines memory cards to a central tabulator: a software bug told the tabulator to ignore all votes cast above a certain threshold.

The inconsistency in the voting tally was only spotted shortly before the vote was certified. The bug was later found, admitted to, and corrected by Sequoia technicians who retrieved the missing votes stored on back-up memory cards in individual machines. It shakes ones confidence to know there was a problem this basic in the system, says Dill.

Strauss argues that an electronic recount of this kind itself raises an ethical problem. Only company technicians, rather than election officials, are qualified to fix the software, but then any changes they make are not then re-certified. A paper recount would have made everyone less queasy, he says.

This should not be a problem in Nevada, where all the electronic voting machines used on 2 November will be required to produce a paper record of each vote. Voters will then be able to check this paper ballot and drop it in a ballot box. Nevada is the only state to require this, but California and Ohio, among others, will be watching the outcome closely as they intend to move to the same model for elections in 2006.

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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 03:55 AM
Response to Reply #22
107. NM WAS REPORTED AT 103% BY C-SPAN !!!!

This was on a right wing forum. It reported that NM was overreporting at 103%. This maps to the analogous results Bush is getting in EVote states w/o audit systems.

http://network.ap.org/dynamic/files/specials/election_n...

CSpan has it working now adding up to 100%. Why then was it over by 3% before?


In exit polls Kerry lead Bush by 3.8% in New Mexico.

Bush however leads Kerry by 3% in actual results reported from the precincts.

I'm not surprised that when all the results came in, they showed at 103%.

Why? Because in E-Vote states with no audits, Bush has been showing a 5% or more bump that is not tracking with the exit polls.

New Mexico is BY FAR the most slanted results yet comparing exit polls to posted results. I'm going to focus on this state to see what type of voting systems they are using...
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 07:27 PM
Response to Reply #107
193. Hi SoCalDem - I have posted a story on this on Scoop...
I have posted a story on this on Scoop... based on Faun Otter's similar analysis... plus I have commented on the radio down here in NZ based on the story too.

I now think it is very important for us to compile a complete comparative analysis of the uncorrected exit polls with the finals... especially now that this is being picked up by some of the mainstream media.

Unfortunately with the Salon.com post we run a risk that the story will be undermined before it gains a wide audience.

************

http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0411/S00072.htm
Faun Otter: Vote Fraud - Exit Polls Vs Actuals
Thursday, 4 November 2004, 1:21 pm
Article: The Scoop Editor

SCOOP EDITOR'S INTRODUCTORY NOTE: Within parts of the U.S. progressive community there is already widespread concern that electronic voting fraud may provide an explanation for the astonishing 8 million vote gain made by George W. Bush in the 2004 presidential U.S. election.
Already there a variety of odd phenomena which have aroused suspicions about this possibility:

For example:

- In Florida Bush received a million extra votes, while Kerry received only 500,000 extra votes, in spite of a massive Democratic Get-Out-The-Vote(GOTV) and registration campaign in that state;

- In Florida's Broward County, a democratic stronghold and heavily black community, unauditable voting machines recorded a 33% (70,000+) vote gain on Bush's 2000 results and a much smaller gain to Kerry again Broward was the scene of a massive GOTV campaign;

- In several places voters reported ( http://www/news/stories/op/storiesView/sid/4154 / ) voting for Kerry but noticing the machine record their vote for Bush;

- Recollections, reported here at Scoop.co.nz in 2003, that there is evidence of vote fraud in Florida in 2000 involving security holes in voting systems;

- Observations that many of the security flaws reported in mid 2003 in vote counting systems remained in place for the 2004 count last night (see http://www.blackboxvoting.org / for details.)

But by far the most wide source of public suspicion about the results came from the stark difference between the exit polls, which showed strong Kerry leads in many battleground states including Ohio and Florida, and the actual results in those same states. Bush achieved a 5% margin of victory in Florida and came very close to winning Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Add in the fact that the reported exit poll results were changed in the early hours of Wednesday morning, and there was a recipe for suspicion brewing in the online internet vote fraud community last night.

In order to attempt to get a firmer hold on the extent of vote fraud if it did occur Faun Otter (a veteran of the U.S. based vote fraud investigative community) conducted the following preliminary analysis comparing the initial exit poll results (note this link takes you to the revised results) vs actual results.

- Scoop Co-Editor, Alastair Thompson


**********

More here
http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0411/S00072.htm
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alittlelark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-05-04 12:01 AM
Response to Reply #22
219. I worked w/ 'election protection' in NM-got back last night
NM had 1/3 vote on touch-screens w/ no paper trail. At the 11th hour, the night before the election, the machines were switched out and replaced with paper (according to the lawyer on-site w/me).

Bill Richardson (ex-Clinton cabinet) is governor there. I am mightily curious why the switch-out occurred.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-04 11:39 PM
Response to Original message
24. NEVADA - evidence supporting election theft
Edited on Wed Nov-03-04 12:17 AM by SoCalDemocrat
Exit Polls in Nevada project Kerry leading by just exatly 1.2%.

ACTUAL RESULTS CONFIRM KERRY AHEAD BY 1.3%

What is the difference? Nevada has instituded paper ballot receipts for their evoting system. They have a verified AUDIT TRAIL! Other swing states that don't have this are showing skewed results for Bush vs the exit polls. Nevada exit polling however is accurate.

-------
http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99996523

Strauss argues that an electronic recount of this kind itself raises an ethical problem. Only company technicians, rather than election officials, are qualified to fix the software, but then any changes they make are not then re-certified. A paper recount would have made everyone less queasy, he says.

This should not be a problem in Nevada, where all the electronic voting machines used on 2 November will be required to produce a paper record of each vote. Voters will then be able to check this paper ballot and drop it in a ballot box. Nevada is the only state to require this, but California and Ohio, among others, will be watching the outcome closely as they intend to move to the same model for elections in 2006.

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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:18 AM
Response to Reply #24
37. Nevada required paper audit trails

http://reprints.msnbc.com/id/5937115 /

Their exit polls match their results. Only state so far that I've found that matches up, also only one so far to use widespread audit trails.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:01 AM
Response to Original message
25. WISCONSIN


Some research turned this up. Wisconsin tried to pass an initiative to get paper trails on their evoting systems, but it was defeated by the state Senate in August. As a result...

UPDATED 10pm PST.

Kerry lead is 6% in exit polling.

Actual results however show Bush ahead by 1%, an unexplained difference of 7%.


----
http://www.duluthsuperior.com/mld/duluthsuperior/news/p...

Wisconsin election laws do not require the use of a paper ballot, but electronic voting machines currently in use are limited to optical scan equipment, such as the type used in Brown County.

A bill that would ban paperless touch-screen voting in Wisconsin was introduced in the last legislative session by Rep. Mark Pocan, D-Milwaukee, and Sen. Jeff Plale, D-Milwaukee. Sen. Alan Lasee, R-Rockland, was a co-sponsor.

The measure, which passed the Assembly as a committee bill, died on the floor of the Senate.

That is unfortunate. As Pocan and Plale pointed out when they introduced the legislation, concerns about system security and the potential for electronic vote rigging go hand-in-hand with worries about the lack of a paper trail.

A new special-interest group, the Verified Voting Foundation (verified voting.org), lists scores of computer science professors around the country who have gone on record against the paperless voting machines because they seem to have weak protections against tampering.



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sybylla Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:48 AM
Response to Reply #25
80. Paperless voting will not come to Wisconsin
as long as our current SOS, Doug LaFollette, is in office. He said as much at our Dem convention this summer. He knows about all the issues surrounding electronic voting and even spoke about it while there was a discussion on the floor of a resolution in support of the HAVA repair bill.

They will try again and again each consecutive legislature until it gets passed.
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Old and In the Way Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:03 AM
Response to Original message
27. And the corporate media are co-conspirators in this travesty.
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crickets Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:15 AM
Response to Reply #27
35. It makes me sick (nt)
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:07 AM
Response to Original message
29. MINNESOTA

Kerry exit poll lead 9.6% in Minnesota.

Actual reports Bush trails by 5%, about a 5% discrepancy favoring Bush.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:14 AM
Response to Reply #29
33. Minnesota restricts reporter access to polling places
MINNEAPOLIS - A new state law that sharply restricts reporters access to Minnesota polling places is raising fears that it will hinder the news medias efforts to learn whether the voting is being conducted fairly.

advertisement

In one of the most restrictive such laws in the country, reporters and photographers must have a letter of permission to get into a polling place, and they cannot stay for more than 15 minutes. The Legislature passed the law last spring.

Some media experts said the intent of the law was to guarantee journalists access to polling places after local elections officials tightened restrictions on their own in recent elections. But it is also a departure from past practice, in which reporters and photographers were routinely allowed inside polling places.

Most states limit access to polling places in some manner, though in many cases statutes specifically prohibit only electioneering, or solicitation of voters.

I dont know of any state that has a law that is this restrictive, said Jane Kirtley, a media ethics and law professor at the University of Minnesota. This idea that you basically cant be there unless you have a permission slip is something that I have not seen anyplace else.

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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:15 AM
Response to Reply #29
34. Minnesota restricts journalist access to polls
MINNEAPOLIS - A new state law that sharply restricts reporters access to Minnesota polling places is raising fears that it will hinder the news medias efforts to learn whether the voting is being conducted fairly.

advertisement

In one of the most restrictive such laws in the country, reporters and photographers must have a letter of permission to get into a polling place, and they cannot stay for more than 15 minutes. The Legislature passed the law last spring.

Some media experts said the intent of the law was to guarantee journalists access to polling places after local elections officials tightened restrictions on their own in recent elections. But it is also a departure from past practice, in which reporters and photographers were routinely allowed inside polling places.

Most states limit access to polling places in some manner, though in many cases statutes specifically prohibit only electioneering, or solicitation of voters.

I dont know of any state that has a law that is this restrictive, said Jane Kirtley, a media ethics and law professor at the University of Minnesota. This idea that you basically cant be there unless you have a permission slip is something that I have not seen anyplace else.

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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:09 AM
Response to Original message
31. 1/3 of voting was done electronically this election
http://www.pcworld.com/news/article/0,aid,118205,pg,1,R...

Counties in 27 states, including presidential swing states such as Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, as well as the District of Columbia, will use direct electronic recording machines, accounting for about 30 percent of U.S. voters on November 2.
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American liberal Donating Member (915 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:25 AM
Response to Reply #31
40. Did you see the results for DC?
Something like 90% to 9% Kerry. Ironic, ain't it?
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:33 AM
Response to Reply #40
47. DC - just checked

It's crazy lopsided for Kerry.

But the exit polling looks to match the actual results. I'd guess there was no reason to try and fiddle with EVotes here since there was no way in hell of this being close.
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crickets Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:19 AM
Response to Original message
38. Thank you, SoCalDem!
If you've started coming to these conclusions, odds are good the Kerry team is doing the same thing. This gives me hope. We won't just roll over this time. Kerry and Edwards are not going to concede. If they do, our country is lost, and the world is in big, big trouble. It's not just another national election. They know this. It's time to blow the lid off the fraud.

I don't know what I'd do without DU right now. (Mind you, I've stopped clicking on threads started by people I don't recognize. Sheesh, I can't wait until the board settings are back to normal.)

:hugs:
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humanbeing Donating Member (133 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:21 AM
Response to Reply #38
39. Same here, thanks!
I dont live in a swing state, but I'll keep checking up on this thread!
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maryallen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 02:19 AM
Response to Reply #38
85. Just to be on the safe side, send this to the Kerry people.
Good work, SoCalDem!
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 03:06 AM
Response to Reply #85
96. Left them a voice message - with a million others

They'll never get to it. It's up to DU to help get this message out to the media. I've done what I can personally. The rest of you need to step up and help get the message out.
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hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:27 AM
Response to Original message
42. kick
kick hard.

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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:30 AM
Response to Original message
43. OHIO - DUers please report


Kerry exit polls is behind 2%

Bush actual results is ahead 2%

This state matched up. Does Ohio use paper trails?
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:30 AM
Response to Reply #43
44. OHIO appears to have audit trails - 2 for 2

A confirmation from a DU'er here would be great. According to this story they used AccuPoll which create voter-verified paper trails. This would be the 2nd swing state with paper trails where the exit polls match the actual results. 2 for 2 results.

June 10, 2004

http://www.fcw.com/geb/articles/2004/0607/web-accupoll -...

----
Ohio state officials have certified touch-screen voting machines from AccuPoll Inc. for use in the state. AccuPoll's machines create a voter-verified paper record.

Such paper records are at the heart of the debate over touch-screen machines, formally called Direct Recording Electronic (DRE) machines. Other vendors do not offer the feature unless election officials specifically request it. Critics of electronic voting say that fraud or errors in the machine's recording of votes could go undetected without an external record that could be used to audit results.

"This is a significant event because Ohio has been on the forefront of the debate," said Frank Wiebe, president of AccuPoll, in a statement. Ohio recently passed a law requiring the paper trail, he added.
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humanbeing Donating Member (133 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:32 AM
Response to Reply #44
46. A kick for SoCalDemocrat's work
Maybe you should change the title of the thread to ask for help fro Ohioans??
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OhioDem2004 Donating Member (11 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 03:54 AM
Response to Reply #43
106. Bush Got It
I never felt good about this state to being with. The exit polling was probably off because after all polling is an inexact science. I got a lot of heat for saying this but to me Ohio isn't much a swing state. All the major statewide elected officals, Senators, and most House members are GOP. This state isn't nearly as liberal as the rest of the midwestern battleground states.
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RememberTheCoup Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:44 PM
Response to Reply #43
175. I voted in Franklin County.
Electronic machines. No receipts. And I was told my neighborhood (I just moved here) uses punchcards. If I knew they were electronic, I would have voted absentee. :(
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Joe Turner Donating Member (374 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:36 AM
Response to Original message
49. Those F'n machines had better be stripped down and
turned inside out and tested for fraud. I find it incredible that in the 2 states with e-machines that produce no hard copy records the vote tallies vary wildly from exit polling.

Mr. Kerry, don't concede.
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lanparty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:41 AM
Response to Reply #49
52. You won't find anything ...

Computers are NOT machines with built in integrity systems. A program can change all the results and then delete itself. It's that simple.

There is no cryptography on the machines that can assure that votes aren't changed. There is ZERO way to tell whether the vote was recorded correctly!!!!


KERRY CHALLENGE THE COMPUTER VOTING MACHINES. IF YOU NEED TO LOBBY TO KNOCK OUT ALL RESULTS ON EVOTING MACHINES .... DO IT. THE END OF AMERICAN DEMOCRACY IS AT STAKE!!!!!

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0007 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 07:53 AM
Response to Reply #49
126. I'd like to know the truth about Texas and their e-machines.
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lanparty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:37 AM
Response to Original message
51. They stole it in 2000 with eVoting ...

Hey they stole it in 2000 with eVoting and they got away with it. The 16,000 votes in Volusia county is NOTHING compared to what the Republicans have stole this time.

I don't care HOW silly the Kerry campaign looks. If we don't challenge these vote stealing machines NOW, it will be the end of democracy in America. They'll quadruple in 2006.

The shit-head pundits are all calling the states for Kerry. To them it's completely improbable and unthinkable to accuse the Republicans of full scale voting fraud.


Seriously, in 2 or 4 more years, we'll only have more shill conservative judges that will approve any and all results from these vote stealing machines.

Democracy in America is on the line. And dammit if the Democrats have to team with the military to fight Bush, THEY SHOULD!!! Because this is the LAST GASP OF DEMOCRACY.

OUR COUNTRY IS DYING AND BUSH IS BECOMING OUR FUHRER!!!!!!



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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:46 AM
Response to Original message
53. PENNSYLVANIA - looks skewed

Kerry exit polls show an 8.8% lead.

Bush actual polls show him 4% behind.

Difference is about 5% unexplained.

In every swing state with EVoting where I cannot confirm there are paper audit trials, or I know there are not audit trials, there is an unexplained advantage for Bush.

Two swing states with EVoting paper trails have exit polls dead on with actual polling results.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:50 AM
Response to Original message
54. ILLINOIS - matches up

Kerry exit polling puts him ahead 10.7%
Actual reported results have him ahead 11%

This state is not considered contested, but was at one time so I thought to check.

Do they have paper audit trails for their EVoting?
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:52 AM
Response to Reply #54
55. It appears they also have audit trials - 3 for 3
Edited on Wed Nov-03-04 12:52 AM by SoCalDemocrat
Sounds like they may have them. This makes it 3 for 3. States with audit trails on their EVoting match up with exit polling. All other states that don't have the audit trials have an unexplained discrepancy of about +5% for Bush.

------------

"New Hampshire passed a law in 1994 barring the certification of any voting machine in the state that does not provide a voter-verified audit trail. Illinois has a similar law"

------------------------

Because of such mishaps, Illinois will require a paper record of every ballot in 2006. Although most of Illinois' 110 election jurisdictions use optical scan equipment, two of the largest -- Chicago and the remainder of Cook County -- are considering touchscreens.

Dianne Felts, director of voting systems and standards for Illinois's elections board, said Nevada's primary impressed her.

"It heartened everybody here because we were all so worried that the printers would jam," Felts said. "It seemed to work very well there. Obviously it can be done elsewhere."

But DeForest B. Soaries Jr., chairman of the U.S. Election Assistance Commission, questioned whether more populous, diverse counties in other states can pull off as smooth an election.

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phish420 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:55 AM
Response to Original message
56. KICK
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:56 AM
Response to Original message
57. NEW HAMPSHIRE - another confirm for audit trails 4 for 4
Edited on Wed Nov-03-04 12:57 AM by SoCalDemocrat
Kerry with a 3% lead in actual results and 2.9% exit poll lead.

NH legislated to mandate paper audit trials for EVoting for the 2004 election.

That is four out of four states which have audit trails that are dead on matches with exit polling vs. actual results.

All other EVoting states are showing an unexplained Bush bias of about +5%.

The evidence is piling up. I think it's time we tightened this up into a concise case and began flooding the media outlets to get them to do their research and reporting.
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TexasSissy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:58 AM
Response to Original message
58. Ohio is paper (except for a few counties, maybe).
Florida is e-voting.
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LisaL Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:18 AM
Response to Reply #58
69. That's not true.
I voted in Franklin county on electronic voting machines.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:31 AM
Response to Reply #69
73. did you get a paper audit trail receipt?

It's important. Did you get a receit from your EVote?
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LisaL Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 06:47 PM
Response to Reply #73
192. No, I didn't get a receipt.
I got nothing, absolutely nothing. Machines here in OH do not give any paper verifible trail. It's so easy to steal the elections now days.
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Shadoobie Donating Member (904 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:00 AM
Response to Original message
59. Hey Socadem, your numbers are not the same
I potsed this on Requiem99 thread with no response but when I looked up the information from your links I do not see the same percentages:

"I looked at the exit poll results for Florida and women were shown as voting 50-49 for *. Did the numbers change?

Greg

Editted to add that the numbers for Ohio looks like Men (47% of vote) 52-48 for Bush and Women (53% of vote) 50-50."

Greg
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:04 AM
Response to Reply #59
62. The data is changing

Yes it's changing. I'm using CNN's site. For states that have reported 100% it's not going to change. Otherwise they will fluctuate. Feel free to re-crunch with the latest data. I would appreciate someone helping to double check the math.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 02:57 AM
Response to Reply #62
94. CONFIRMED - CNN is fudging the results

CNN has been caught manipulating the exit poll data. We have screen shots.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:08 AM
Response to Reply #59
64. Just rechecked it's still consistenet
Edited on Wed Nov-03-04 01:09 AM by SoCalDemocrat
Bush shows a lead of 2.3% based on CNN's exit polling data, and he has a 2% lead in the state.

Ohio is also using paper audit trails with their EVoting machines. Results cannot be fixed without being exposed by an audit.

I haven't confirmed this, it's based on older news traffic. We need to hear from Ohio voters who used the EVoting to see if they got a receipt.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:03 AM
Response to Original message
60. MAINE - this is looking really bad for EVoting

Kerry exit polls up 7.5%

Kerry leads actual results by 8%

Exit poll results match actual!

If you guessed that Maine has no EVoting systems you are CORRECT!

They legislated that any EVoting machines purchased and used must have paper audit trails.

-------------
http://www.maine.gov/tools/whatsnew/index.php?topic=Hou...

April 15, 2004

AUGUSTA-Working to ensure accurate voting as a basic and guaranteed right, the Maine Legislature Tuesday passed a bill requiring electronic voting machines to provide a paper receipt of a voters ballot that can be verified by the voter. The bill has been sent to Governor Baldacci for his approval, which is expected.

Currently, no voting precincts in Maine use electronic voting machines. This bill would require municipalities that upgrade to electronic systems in the future to buy systems that produce a voter-verifiable paper trail.
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IdaBriggs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:03 AM
Response to Original message
61. Kicking for Kerry! nt
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loudsue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:06 AM
Response to Original message
63. PLEASE forward this thread to Kerry headquarters!!!
It's the paperless voting machines that are stealing our elections, and there's more proof that it is so, than there is that it is NOT so!!

I don't have the link to Kerry's campaign! come on DUers!! Kick some butt!! NOW!!!!

Get the lawyers all over this!!!

THANKS, SoCalDem!!!

:kick: :kick: :kick: :kick:
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wabeewoman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:09 AM
Response to Original message
65. I heard them trying to explain this on MSNBC
Edited on Wed Nov-03-04 01:16 AM by wabeewoman
Scarbough was saying that people were embarrassed to say they voted for bush and tweetie was agreeing that voting was private. Don't believe it. This is what caused the sudden change in attitude in the WH from downtrodden (commented on by several people on tv) to suddenly uplifted. They got the word that the hacking worked or something. They are cheating. I would bet on it. I'm ready to fight. What can we do???

PS DOn't trust CNN's site for the exit polling. Someone else posted that they are changing their exit polling and that it doesn't agree. I got a screen shot of Ohio earlier tonight before anything was called but don't know how to post it.
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socalover Donating Member (359 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:10 AM
Response to Original message
66. CNN CHANGED THEIR OHIO EXIT POLLS, LYING FUCKERS!!!!!!
They did the same with Florida!

Lying fuckers, I've had fucking enough already!!!!

Look at the latest exit polls for CNN!
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:25 AM
Response to Reply #66
72. SON OF A BITCH - start saving the cached images
Edited on Wed Nov-03-04 01:26 AM by SoCalDemocrat
I should of expected as much. Please help recover and screen shot cached images.

We will need to find other sources of exit polling data. What other agencies compiled comprehensive exit poll statistics? We need that data now before it can be scrubbed.
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socalover Donating Member (359 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:46 AM
Response to Reply #72
79. Check it out! CNN ARE A BUNCH OF FUCKING CROOKS!
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ThoughtCriminal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:18 AM
Response to Original message
68. We need to look at every exit poll
Are they only off in certain states? precincts? This is going to require lots of data.
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Blue_Roses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:24 AM
Response to Original message
71. Also something to consider is the high DEM turnout for Senate and House
such as Arkansas, but Bush winning. Both Senate and house candidates won with 20% margins but have Kerry losing by 5...something not right.
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Seabiscuit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:31 AM
Response to Original message
74. I AM SO BUMMED OUT TONIGHT!!!
1. It looks like massive fraud by the Repukes. And only two months to litigate it all.

2. Even correcting the numbers by cleaning out the fraud factor, I am just flabbergasted that there are that many dufusses with their heads up their arses voting for that criminal Shrub cartel.

3. If Shrub wins by hook or by crook again, it won't be safe for Americans to travel anywhere outside the U.S. The rest of the world will not forgive us as a people for re-electing this asshole after having four years to wake the fuck up.

4. If Osama Bin Laden/any al queada group wants to punish Americans, they should attack only in the "red" states. I hate to wish this on anyone, but if America is going to be attacked, they should at least, as a matter of fairness, attack the people in the states who were jackass enough to hand their electoral votes to Shrub.

5. Where the hell is the youth vote? This should have been a landslide for Kerry. Any young person stupid enough not to vote for Kerry tonight deserves to inherit the massive debt Dubya's created for them to inherit.

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BootinUp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:32 AM
Response to Original message
75. IF there ain't an audit trail what the F can be done?
:shrug:
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Robert Oak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:35 AM
Response to Original message
76. That's what I think and why they are not conceding
If you look at the popular vote and the rest...I think they would
have been more toward conceding...

but it's too bizarre, the national results versus all of the polls...
I'll bank they are going digging for fraud and using this as way to buy time.

Good for them. I don't believe these numbers unless the entire
country is retarded and also an evangelical Christian.
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loudsue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:40 AM
Response to Original message
77. USE THIS FRAUD TO EXPOSE THE REPUKES FOR WHO THEY ARE
It's time, folks. We're going to take our country back

NOW!!!!!! GO GET 'EM!



:kick: :kick: :kick:
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Straight Shooter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:51 AM
Response to Original message
81. WHEN did the tide turn in vote "results" compared to bush's little speech?
He gave some face time to the press, said he felt confident. Is there ANY correlation to that, timewise, or close to timewise, as to when the results began to turn in his direction?

I'm just sayin'
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vetwife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 02:17 AM
Response to Reply #81
84. I knew we would get bushwhacked. The whole election was a theft !
I am so angry and glad Kerry and Edwards caught their hijinks.
My God these people have never told the truth about anything ! They are on a mission from God don't you know !
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 02:27 AM
Response to Reply #84
88. I don't know that Kerry/Edwards are aware of this

I'm afraid our side will do something colossally stupid, like be honorable and concede defeat before challenging this fraud.

The evidence I analyzed appears quite damning and supports the premise that Evoting fraud was widespread and applied consistently wherever it could be done without audit trails that could prove the case.

I heard on the radio that the Bush camp made a statement today condemning the exit polling. They said that it was innacurate, but that is all I cought of it. It was early in the day and immediately threw up a red flag for me. When I got home, I started analyzing the exit polling data to see what they were trying to hide.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 02:23 AM
Response to Reply #81
86. I don't think so

I began compiling all my data after the Bush "speech".

It was all consistent and in order.

The Exit Polling showed the Kerry leads, but the actual results all skewed +5% to Bush for all states with EVoting and a lack of paper audit systems.

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vetwife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 02:26 AM
Response to Original message
87. Its not just Ohio ! No way. 2000, 2002, 2004...
I say they have been taking over since 2000 and they are busted now !
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 02:33 AM
Response to Original message
89. Early exit polling showed Kerry ahead in swing states
We're being screwed. There is no doubt.

--------------------------------------

Early Exit Polls Show Lead for Kerry in Swing States



Gwyneth Doland < Tuesday 2004-11-02 4:39 PM >

From Salon.com ():

As of 2pm Eastern, exit polls show Kerry winning in Florida (51-48), Pennsylvania (60-40), Ohio (52-48), Michigan (51-47), New Mexico (50-48), Minnesota (58-40), Wisconsin (52-43), and New Hampshire (57-41).

The president leads in Arizona (55-45), Colorado (51-48), and Louisiana (57-42). Iowa is a tie (49-49).

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onecitizen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 02:45 AM
Response to Original message
92. yep.......
in 2000 I knew immediately something was wrong when the exit poling and the official count were way off. Looks like it's happening again.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 02:46 AM
Response to Original message
93. Diebold promises to deliver Ohio to Bush in 2003
Published on Thursday, August 28, 2003 by the Cleveland Plain Dealer

Voting Machine Controversy

by Julie Carr Smyth


COLUMBUS - The head of a company vying to sell voting machines in Ohio told Republicans in a recent fund-raising letter that he is "committed to helping Ohio deliver its electoral votes to the president next year."
The Aug. 14 letter from Walden O'Dell, chief executive of Diebold Inc. - who has become active in the re-election effort of President Bush - prompted Democrats this week to question the propriety of allowing O'Dell's company to calculate votes in the 2004 presidential election.
O'Dell attended a strategy pow-wow with wealthy Bush benefactors - known as Rangers and Pioneers - at the president's Crawford, Texas, ranch earlier this month. The next week, he penned invitations to a $1,000-a-plate fund-raiser to benefit the Ohio Republican Party's federal campaign fund - partially benefiting Bush - at his mansion in the Columbus suburb of Upper Arlington.
The letter went out the day before Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, also a Republican, was set to qualify Diebold as one of three firms eligible to sell upgraded electronic voting machines to Ohio counties in time for the 2004 election.
Blackwell's announcement is still in limbo because of a court challenge over the fairness of the selection process by a disqualified bidder, Sequoia Voting Systems.
In his invitation letter, O'Dell asked guests to consider donating or raising up to $10,000 each for the federal account that the state GOP will use to help Bush and other federal candidates - money that legislative Democratic leaders charged could come back to benefit Blackwell.
They urged Blackwell to remove Diebold from the field of voting-machine companies eligible to sell to Ohio counties.
This is the second such request in as many months. State Sen. Jeff Jacobson, a Dayton-area Republican, asked Blackwell in July to disqualify Diebold after security concerns arose over its equipment.
"Ordinary Ohioans may infer that Blackwell's office is looking past Diebold's security issues because its CEO is seeking $10,000 donations for Blackwell's party - donations that could be made with statewide elected officials right there in the same room," said Senate Democratic Leader Greg DiDonato.
Diebold spokeswoman Michelle Griggy said O'Dell - who was unavailable to comment personally - has held fund-raisers in his home for many causes, including the Columbus Zoo, Op era Columbus, Catholic Social Services and Ohio State University.
Ohio GOP spokesman Jason Mauk said the party approached O'Dell about hosting the event at his home, the historic Cotswold Manor, and not the other way around. Mauk said that under federal campaign finance rules, the party cannot use any money from its federal account for state- level candidates.
"To think that Diebold is somehow tainted because they have a couple folks on their board who support the president is just unfair," Mauk said.
Griggy said in an e-mail statement that Diebold could not comment on the political contributions of individual company employees.
Blackwell said Diebold is not the only company with political connections - noting that lobbyists for voting-machine makers read like a who's who of Columbus' powerful and politically connected.
"Let me put it to you this way: If there was one person uniquely involved in the political process, that might be troubling," he said. "But there's no one that hasn't used every legitimate avenue and bit of leverage that they could legally use to get their product looked at. Believe me, if there is a political lever to be pulled, all of them have pulled it."
Blackwell said he stands by the process used for selecting voting machine vendors as fair, thorough and impartial.
As of yesterday, however, that determination lay with Ohio Court of Claims Judge Fred Shoemaker.
He heard closing arguments yesterday over whether Sequoia was unfairly eliminated by Blackwell midway through the final phase of negotiations.
Shoemaker extended a temporary restraining order in the case for 14 days, but said he hopes to issue his opinion sooner than that.
2003 The Plain Dealer

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Divine Discontent Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 03:00 AM
Response to Reply #93
95. yeah isn't that nice?
Diebold promised that shit. I'm sick and angry.

Finally I ask, how can any homosexual (24% according to national exit polls) look at themselves in the mirror tomorrow knowing they gave the shrub a SOLID 1% of the national vote by voting for him????

Talk about hating yourself and being so anti-gay!!!!!!!

they are sick twisted people (none on this board I'm sure) and helped get el fuhrer a national vote lead...

they need to fight this til they try and physically stop us, I was down about it earlier, but after reading these posts, why the f not? why not push these lies to be brought to light now? if not, they'll do this forever!!!!!!
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 03:18 AM
Response to Original message
97. Post info on Republican opposition to Exit Polling here

DU members please post all sources of info on Republican opposition to Exit Polling here.

I've already posted one CNN story where Republicans banned Exit Polling in Ohio around polling places.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 03:30 AM
Response to Original message
98. White House claims OH, FL exit polls skewed

We now know how they got unskewed. They had CNN and possibly others forge the exit poll results.

--------------

By John Byrne | RAW STORY EDITOR

A source connected to the White House told the National Review this afternoon that President Bush is confident of winning both Ohio and Florida, which early exit polls put in the Bush column, RAW STORY can reveal.
Advertisement

In a telephone coversation, the reporter said, "political operations" was "very confident and completely dismissive of the early day numbers."

Believing an unverified claim on the conservative Drudge Report, that the early exit polls were skewed in favor of women voters (who prefer Kerry by-and-large), the White House source told the Review they believe there was "skewing" of early exit polls.

Confident that Bush would take both Ohio and Florida, the source went on to say that Mel Martinez, the Republican Senate candidate in Florida, will beat Democrat Betty Castor, who is leading in early exit polling. The source also apparently asserted that Bush would crush Kerry in West Virginia.

The source, they said, was "not someone who is given to bluster."

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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 03:30 AM
Response to Original message
99. White House claims OH, FL exit polls skewed

We now know how they got unskewed. They had CNN and possibly others forge the exit poll results.

--------------

By John Byrne | RAW STORY EDITOR

A source connected to the White House told the National Review this afternoon that President Bush is confident of winning both Ohio and Florida, which early exit polls put in the Bush column, RAW STORY can reveal.
Advertisement

In a telephone coversation, the reporter said, "political operations" was "very confident and completely dismissive of the early day numbers."

Believing an unverified claim on the conservative Drudge Report, that the early exit polls were skewed in favor of women voters (who prefer Kerry by-and-large), the White House source told the Review they believe there was "skewing" of early exit polls.

Confident that Bush would take both Ohio and Florida, the source went on to say that Mel Martinez, the Republican Senate candidate in Florida, will beat Democrat Betty Castor, who is leading in early exit polling. The source also apparently asserted that Bush would crush Kerry in West Virginia.

The source, they said, was "not someone who is given to bluster."

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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 03:36 AM
Response to Original message
100. Ohio Paper refused access to do exit polling
A federal judge on Monday refused to allow the Akron Beacon Journal access to polling locations -- a practice the paper has enjoyed for years in its news-gathering role.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 03:36 AM
Response to Original message
101. 6 news agencies sue Ohio over exit poll barring
Six news groups sue Ohio elections chief

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) - Six national news organizations filed a federal lawsuit Monday seeking additional access at the polls on Election Day.
ABC, CNN, CBS, Fox News, NBC and The Associated Press sued Ohio Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell over a policy that would prevent exit polling within 100 feet of a voting place.

The organizations have formed a consortium to collect exit-polling data.

The news organizations said the prohibition hinders their ability to gather information about the political process and violates constitutional guarantees of free speech. They contend exit-poll reporters were allowed access within 100 feet of polls in the March primary.

Blackwell's spokesman Carlo LoParo cited increased media interest in the November election.

Anticipating a crush of voters and media Tuesday, Blackwell told county boards of election to enforce a state law barring anyone except voters, election officials, challengers and witnesses from inside the 100-foot limit, LoParo said.
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crickets Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 03:55 AM
Response to Reply #101
108. I'm shaking my head
The organizations have formed a consortium to collect exit-polling data.

Oh. And VNS was chopped liver? :shrug:
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 03:39 AM
Response to Original message
102. AP only source of vote counting since VNS disbanded

This makes CNN's fradulent changes to the exit poll results all the more important and damning. The AP is all we have to insure the election integrity. We've proven CNN modified the results. What are we left with now?

--------------------------------------------------

AP becomes sole source for vote-counting on election day



The Associated Press (AP) of the United States becomes the sole provider of vote-counting on the election night, the first time in four decades, the wireless news service said Monday.

The Americans will go to polling stations Tuesday to make their choices for the next president, the new House of representatives, one-third of Senate and some governors.

The move was seen as a step to avoid the repeat of failures in the last presidential election, in which controversy erupted in the state of Florida over the vote-counting and a recount was then called.

In the past, the AP and the Voter News Service (VNS), a companythat was formed in 1964 to count votes and conduct exit polls, were the sources of vote-counting data for the media organizations.

However, VNS was blamed for faulty data that led to the wrong calls in the 2000 election and its failure in the mid-term election of Congress in 2002, and was then disbanded.

Six major US media organizations such as ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox News Channel and the AP have formed the National Election Poll(NEP) to replace VNS.

This time, the media organizations signed contracts with two veteran polling companies -- Mitofsky International and Edison Media Research that will conduct exit surveys for the Nov. 2 presidential election.

The two polling companies agreed that the AP, which has been counting the vote since its founding in 1848, would be their sole source for vote counts. Each of the news organizations will use data provided by NEP to make its own projections on the election night.

Also, the TV networks have promised that they would be careful projecting winners and would not call states that span two time zones until all of the polling places have closed, the AP said.

The AP hired about 5,500 people to work in 4,600 counties across the United States for vote counting on the election night.

The computer system that gather the data was used successfully during the presidential primaries early this year and full dress rehearsals were conducted on Oct. 23 and 30, the AP said.


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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 03:41 AM
Response to Original message
103. EVoting fraud detected several weeks ago
EVoting fraud problems started weeks ago.

http://tomflocco.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article...

-----------

In documents which may ultimately impact post election legal challenges, the two found three hours missing--between 9:52 pm and 1:31 am--from the audit log, but they also acquired modem "trouble slips" which indicated that the remote phone modem connections were not operating properly.

The trouble slips accidentally revealed King Countys modem access number which would have allowed anyone to surreptitiously take control of the countys central server on election night from any isolated location.

In an October 29 email we received from founder Beverly Harris, and in phone conversations with both Harris and her associate Andy Stephenson, the two said "we now have what everyone keeps saying no one can come up with. We now have evidence that certainly looks like altering a computerized voting system during a real election; and it happened just six weeks ago." (September 14, 2004)
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yowzayowzayowza Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 03:45 AM
Response to Original message
104. Possibly related issue analysis:
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cerulean_ink Donating Member (41 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 03:50 AM
Response to Original message
105. Link to list of states using e-voting
It also shows which states have paper-trails..

http://www.itworld.com/Tech/2987/041020evotestates/
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 04:11 AM
Response to Reply #105
109. Thanks

I think I've gotten further in some respects. That list for example doesn't mention New Hampshire, which also has a paper trail.

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symbolman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 04:12 AM
Response to Original message
110. ALL the BLOGS need to Trumpet the Exit poll/actual count
ALL the BLOGS need to Trumpet the Exit poll/actual count

We must get all the blogs, from Atrios to Kos to Buzzflash to Takebackthemedia, etc.. ALL ON THE SAME PAGE with the Exit poll/actual count scenario here in SoCalDem's post ...

We must MARCH IN LOCKSTEP and SHAME or FORCE the Media to deal with this.. even if we have insider links to the folks in charge and they get to see it, it must STILL be on every page and every blog so that there is NO DOUBT in the American public's mind that THIS IS VALID..

You've seen what they can do. We've forced CNN to put 750 words back into a Hans Blix report in the SAME AFTERNOON at our site. We've cost Limbaugh many high profile advertisers.

We MUST work together on this. Once this information is in a form that we can all digest and understand we must ALL make it the top priority on our sites, reach out to other blogs and pass this story to them, make it the TOP STORY all over the web.

THIS Is how we can beat them, we take it to the people.. in the end WE ARE THE MEDIA.

DO IT. Our futures may depend on us pounding this information into everyone's heads like a drum, and making it part of the public perception.

THe best part is, THIS IS NOT SPIN.

WHO here can contact Bartcop, Atrios, Kos, Air America Radio (website), etc, etc..?

We'll place it front and center on Takebackthemedia.com and NOT BUDGE until we get ANSWERS.

Let's get these THIEVES out of OUR WHITE HOUSE. Start thinking of Boycotts as well. Maybe if everyone who voted for Kerry decided to NOT purchase GAS FOR A WEEK?

Ideas?



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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 04:26 AM
Response to Original message
111. OHIO

There are three states with EVoting that also have paper audit trails. Nevada, Illinois, New Hampshire. All these states showed exit polls matching precinct reporting.

All other EVote states without paper trails showed at least a +5% bias to Bush between exit polls and precinct reported results.

Ohio has the capability for audits but I don't think used them. This is the Ohio data from CNN before they started altering it.

Male: 51/49 Kerry 47%
Female: 53/47 Kerry 53%

Dem: 91/8 Kerry 38%
Rep: 94/6 Bush 37%
Ind: 60/39 Kerry 24%

Based on M vs. F. Kerry lead exit polls by 1.9% However they had Bush ahead by I believe 3%. Currently they have Bush at 2% from the precinct reports. That is +4% biased in favor of Bush from the Exit Polls CNN did.

My conclusion is that the EVoting systems have been tampered with to give Bush a 5% edge.
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Birthmark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 04:37 AM
Response to Reply #111
113. Your conclusion is a valid hypothesis.
I am accepting it as true until a better, more plausible explanation to fit the facts is found. I doubt that that will happen, though.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 04:46 AM
Response to Reply #113
115. I read a report on Diebold

Where a woman cast a vote for Kerry but it registered for Bush. Then she had to re-cast it a second time to get it to register correctly, with the help of a poll worker. It was reported on one of the voting problems/abuse sites.

It's going to take getting ahold of the machines and decompiling all the code and firmware to sort this out. Also checking if they could of been hacked. I read another report which I posted here where a system was hacked several weeks ago.
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snacker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 11:18 AM
Response to Reply #115
147. I saw a woman on the national news last night
and that is exactly what happened to her. She said she was certain she voted for Kerry, but it registered as a vote for Bush.
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parkening Donating Member (449 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 04:45 AM
Response to Original message
114. Exit polls are just polls
They didn't mean much during the campaign --- they don't mean much during the election.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 04:54 AM
Response to Reply #114
116. Wrong

An exit poll is asking someone after they walk out of the election booth who they voted for. It's not speculating with likely voters vs. registered voters. This is a poll of exactly who someone just voted for. It's accurate and an excellent mechanism for insuring voting accuracy and to alert us to potential voting fraud.

Given a statistically significant sample size you can accurately predict the voting pattern for the state within a margin of error.

In this case the sample size was large enough to be representative of the nation as a whole. It is also notable that the exit polling accurately predicted the results in most states with very little error. Where there were discrepancies, they are as noted, and they were significant in the +5% range and always in favor of Bush.

There is no plausable explanation for the variance in the EVoting states that have no paper audit trails other than fraud.
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fenderplayer96 Donating Member (8 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 09:35 AM
Response to Reply #116
138. It's just so bloody blatant, how can they hope to get away with it?
Thanks for your work, starting to pull this together.

I hope many people are chasing up the US media and Kerry HQ with this. For what it may be worth, I've sent a couple of emails to BBC News here in the UK, to try and get them interested in this.

Normally, for me, a nation's democratically decided elections and such are a matter for them, not me or anyone else.

But it looks like the Repubs have already fucked with this election, and the rest of the world needs to know what sort of US Government we may be dealing with.
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usurper4 Donating Member (63 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 09:44 AM
Response to Reply #116
139. The only somewhat plausible explanation
would be that, for some reason, people who vote for Bush refuse to take exit polls more often than Kerry voters. Which would be just weird. Kerry voters tend to be the younger voter, thus, more rushed (my opinion).
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:48 PM
Response to Reply #139
156. I tested that hypothesis as well

I figured that might explain the exit polling problems, that some people are just intentionally deciding to screw with the pollsters and lie. It's far fetched to begin with, becuase this is a very partisan election and most voters feel strongly about their choice and I think would be unlikely to lie about it coming out of the voting booth.

I looked at the states where exit polls accurately were predicting the results and then looked to find what those states had in common. The answer we now know is they all had paper trails on their EVoting systems, or they didn't have any EVoting systems in use in their states.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:52 PM
Response to Reply #156
157. CALIFORNIA - on Nov 3rd

Using CNN's data still, I just ran CA for the heck of it.

Exit polls match the observed results at 11%.

I don't have any faith in the CNN exit polling data at this point, given how we saw it modified late last night.

Does anyone else have other AP exit polling data seperate from what CNN has posted?

I supect they're using a single source and we're going to be out of luck in verifying it.
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rawstory Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:37 PM
Response to Reply #157
172. NEWSWEEK IS INTERESTED.
SoCalDemocrat, please contact me ASAP -- we've passed this on to some big media and they're doing checks. The problem is that they've changed all their exit polling, which I think really hurts the cause. Email me @ rawstory(AT)yahoo.com, and maybe we can get in touch.

thanks.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:56 PM
Response to Reply #172
177. emailed info

I prefer to remain anonymous but I'll help you get the story out.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 05:00 AM
Response to Original message
117. Putting Florida back in play


Observed variance between exit polls and reported precinct results was around 5% for states using Evoting sytems without audit trails.

5% of the voting population of Florida swung from Kerry to Bush is about doubles the margin between the candidates.

Conclusion. Rigging the EVotes gave more than enough votes to Bush for him to win Florida.

Another statistic we need to run is where did all the new voters go? Votes are missing. Lots of votes. Others I believe may of incorrectly have been recast for Bush based upon variance between exit polls and posted results.

The election is in the process of being stolen.
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Karenina Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 05:38 AM
Response to Reply #117
118. BUST the FUCKERS!!!
PUT THEM IN JAIL.
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laylah Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 05:52 AM
Response to Original message
119. Kickin' it! n/t
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Paxdora Donating Member (223 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 05:56 AM
Response to Original message
120. KICK!
Kick! Kick! Kick!

This has to be forced into prominence in the news - don't let the media whores keep this covered up!

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dbt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 06:17 AM
Response to Original message
121. Kick!
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Native Donating Member (885 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 06:30 AM
Response to Original message
122. Big Kick
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Amaya Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 06:57 AM
Response to Original message
124. Kick
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kerry2win Donating Member (321 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 07:04 AM
Response to Original message
125. how do we prove this
There has to be a way. We have lists of people along with addresses etc. There's alot of very smart people here,there has to be a way to double check with them. The fraud is so obvious here.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-05-04 05:01 PM
Response to Reply #125
231. Collect exit polling data by precinct

We also look at precinct data and compare how the state and national averages voted by race, sex, and age, and contrast it against the actual reported results and note any wild inconsistencies.
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Shopaholic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 07:56 AM
Response to Original message
127. We can't. . .
and they know it. They've stolen it.
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0007 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 07:57 AM
Response to Original message
128. I agree with you 100% but how does one fight this type of battle
Edited on Wed Nov-03-04 07:59 AM by 0007
with no paper trail in many states? Four years is too long to wait while junior finishes off this country.

I'm desvastated.
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Ladybast Donating Member (96 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 08:02 AM
Response to Original message
129. This site on "Swing States and Electronic Voting Machines"
shows a map of which states used them:

http://www.corpwatch.org/article.php?id=11517

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progressivebydesign Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 08:05 AM
Response to Original message
130. Considering the head of Diebold is an OHIO Bush captain..
.. why are we even wondering what happened? The guy has photos of himself and Bush plastered all over his house! Most people would be shocked to know that the head of Diebold told gathered Bush supporters last year, that they would DO EVERYTHING IN THEIR POWER to deliver OHIO to BUSH!
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Gman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 08:17 AM
Response to Original message
131. How could Zogby be SO wrong?
Zogby was not wrong.
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NCArtist33 Donating Member (5 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 08:35 AM
Response to Reply #131
135. Fight or
say hello to the United Fascist States of Amerika
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Mantooth Donating Member (125 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 08:24 AM
Response to Original message
133. Fuzzy Math
Ok, I'm looking only at the Exit Poll numbers here and they don't make sense. At 12:21am, they looked like this:



Converting the percentages to actual voters, I get:

Total Respondants: 1,963
Male (47%): 923
Female (53%): 1,040

Break it down further, I get:

Male/Kerry (51%): 471
Male/Bush (49%): 452

Female/Kerry (53%): 551
Female/Bush (47%): 489

Final Results:

Kerry: 1,022 (52%)
Bush: 941 (48%)


An hour and a half later, the exit polls look like this:



I am assuming, at least for the purposes of this post, that the additional respondants are due to more exit poll results coming in (which would mean that most of those people standing in line after the polls closed were repubs?!) Anyway, again converting the percentages to actual voters, I get:

Total Respondants: 2,020
Male (47%): 949
Female (53%): 1,071

Break it down further, I get:

Male/Kerry (47%): 446
Male/Bush (52%): 494

Female/Kerry (50%): 535
Female/Bush (50%): 535

Final Results:

Kerry: 982 (49%)
Bush: 1,029 (51%)


So now let's look at the actual net change in number of votes between the two:

Male/Kerry: -24
Male/Bush: 42

Female/Kerry: -16
Female/Bush: 46

Total Kerry: -40
Total Bush: 88

So, they're saying that, in an hour and a half, after adding 57 votes to the second set of results, that Kerry actually lost a total of 40 votes?! How do you lose votes? Were not talking about an estimate, or percentages. These are actual exit poll vote results. It's like saying at 10pm, Kerry has 1 million votes, and at 11pm, he has 900,000 votes!

If someone can explain it to me, I'd appreciate it.

BTW, due to rounding, these numbers may not be 100% on the nose (for example, there were 57 votes added to the second poll result, but there is only a net change of 48 votes between Kerry and Bush due to the male vote being approx. 99% for Kerry/Bush, 1% for other). But I've tried looking at the numbers even if I round Kerry down and Bush up, and I still get the same kinds of results.
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donkeyotay Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 11:13 AM
Response to Reply #133
144. Yes, folks. Look at these numbers closely.
According to this CNN screen capture, at 12:21 am, Kerry led by these statistics. Just looking at the male vote:

Of 1,963 respondents, 40% of them were white men and they voted 51% for Kerry. That gives 400 votes for Kerry. Six percent were black men who voted 75% for Kerry, so that gives another 88 votes for Kerry, bringing the total male vote to 488 for Kerry.

A little more than an hour later, at 1:41 am, we have this result for men: Total respondents are 2020. The white male vote was still 40%, but with only 43% of them voting for Kerry. Thats 347 white, male votes for Kerry. Seven percent was black male voting 73% for Kerry. That give Kerry an additional 103 for a male total of 450.

So, even though the vote had increased from 1963 to 2020, an increase of 57 votes, Kerry actually LOST 38 votes during this time.

HOW DO YOU LOSE VOTES DURING A TALLY?



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Nederland Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 03:03 PM
Response to Reply #133
187. Its simple
They fucked up and then fixed it. Your first screen shot shows Kerry winning the male vote which is very very improbable.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 08:32 AM
Response to Original message
134. Kick this to the top until we win.
tia
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bpcmxr Donating Member (577 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 08:54 AM
Response to Original message
136. Kick.
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Paradise Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 09:00 AM
Response to Original message
137. KICK! nt
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Bernardo de La Paz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 10:08 AM
Response to Original message
140. Is there similar discrepancy tween reported votes and pre-election polls?
Is there a similar discrepancy between the reported votes and pre-election polls, on a state by state basis that shows up as anomolies for Ohio and Florida?
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drb Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 10:24 AM
Response to Original message
141. kick
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dbt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 10:40 AM
Response to Original message
142. Kick because
This topic needs a new thread!

Well done, SoCalDemocrat!

:toast:
dbt
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LiberalEsto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 10:57 AM
Response to Original message
143. SoCal - CNN wants to interview you about this analysis
I sent you an e-mail - please contact my husband ASAP?
thanks, LiberalEsto
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rawstory Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 11:54 AM
Response to Reply #143
148. kick
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mzmolly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:17 PM
Response to Reply #143
149. Really?
:wow:
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:33 PM
Response to Reply #143
153. No email in my inbox

They probably want to yell at me for trashing their exit polling.

I checked my in-box and there was no email.
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spooky3 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:19 PM
Response to Original message
150. More evidence of possible BBV fraud... VA Dems please help!
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rawstory Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:20 PM
Response to Original message
151. well, we're running it on RAW STORY. for what it's worth.
but i emailed it to all the big bloggers, and only the more left-left- whatreallyhappened.com seems to care. not atrios, and kos' contact thing is useless...

http://rawstory.com
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:22 PM
Response to Original message
152. What can we learn from the 2002 election data?

How many states in 2002 used electronic voting with verifiable paper trails?

In those states, what was the exit polling showing vs. the actual returns?

In 2008, expect a push from the right trying to do away with exit polling. I still believe the exit polling is valid. I cannot understand why it would fail given a statistically meaningful sample. Our hope for 2008 is that all EVoting systems legislate a requirement for paper audit trails. If we do this, I'll go on record and predict the exit polls once again accurately start predicting election results on Nov 2nd.
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gcomeau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:37 PM
Response to Reply #152
154. Do you have the exit polling from other states?
The original I mean, not the CNN "Adjusted" polls?

-Grant
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:11 PM
Response to Reply #154
165. I was too tired to crunch more states

I did CA this morning which matches exit polls with observed results. However that is based on what we now know are fudged exit poll results.

A seperate story from CNN indicates they decided late last night that they had "oversampled" the black vote, so they redid their poll results somehow. Now matter how you slice it, it looks crooked.

We have to operate on the assumption that the AP exit polls taken all during the day yesterday were reporting accurately, vs. the modified data the AP sources recooked last night in order make the polling fit the expected results of a Bush victory.
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SeanQ Donating Member (515 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 02:27 PM
Response to Reply #165
182. I write code to crunch numbers and organize data for a living,
if you send me raw data and instructions (I have a fair understanding of statistics) on what you want done, I'd be happy to automate the work.
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Val Donating Member (60 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:54 PM
Response to Original message
158. Where Is William Rivers Pitt ???
I must read his words.
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Straight Shooter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:55 PM
Response to Original message
159. A big KICK for SoCalDemocrat
:kick:
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Kerry in 04 Donating Member (232 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 12:59 PM
Response to Reply #159
161. kick
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Nederland Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:10 PM
Response to Original message
164. Your math is Wrong
By taking rounded off numbers and multiplying them multiple times you are increasing rounding error significantly. If you look at the exit poll numbers from your link this is what we see:

Men 46%
Women 54%

Bush among Men 53%
Bush among Women 50%
Kerry among Men 46%
Kerry among Women 49%

So, in order to minimize the rounding error, we do this:

Bush vote percentage: (0.46 * 53) + (0.54 * 50) = 51.38%
Kerry vote percentage: (0.46 * 46) + (0.54 * 49) = 47.62%

Exit Poll vote versus Recorded Result:

Bush: 51.38% vs. 52.15%
Kerry: 47.62% vs. 47.02%


I'd say that's a very close match, well within the margin of error.


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donhakman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:17 PM
Response to Reply #164
166. Now you know why official exit polls were abolished
IMMEDIATELY after Nov. 2000.

All the networks used to share one exit poll to precict the outcome.











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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:19 PM
Response to Reply #164
167. FLORIDA and OHIO - a 2nd time
Edited on Wed Nov-03-04 01:32 PM by SoCalDemocrat
FLORIDA

Male: 52/47 Kerry 46%
Female: 52/48 Kerry 54%

(0.46 * 52) + (0.54 * 47) = 49.3% Kerry
(0.46 * 52) + (0.54 * 48) = 49.8% Bush

Exit polls using the breakdown you provided shows a dead heat.

The actual reported results have Bush winning Florida by 5%.

OHIO

Male: 51/49 Kerry 47%
Female: 53/47 Kerry 53%

(0.47 * 51) + (0.53 * 49) = 49.94% Kerry
(0.47 * 53) + (0.53 * 47) = 49.82% Bush

Exit polls show a dead heat.

The actual reported results have Bush winning Ohio by 3% and 1% to Nader.


NEVADA (from MSNBC this morning)

Kerry 44 54 with 48% Men
Bush 52 47 with 52% Women

(0.48 * 54) + (0.52 * 44) = 48.8% Kerry
(0.48 * 52) + (0.52 * 47) = 49.4% Bush

Exit polls, Bush ahead by 0.6%. Actual results Bush won by 3%

Note that's not using last nights raw data. I didn't post the raw data for other states so we can't re-run them (AP reworked their exit polling data late last night).



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rawstory Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:32 PM
Response to Reply #167
169. have they now changed FLORIDA too?
doesn't agree with your percentages.

Male (46%)
53%B
n/a
46%K 1%

Female (54%)
50%B
+5
49%K
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:36 PM
Response to Reply #169
171. Yes

Whomever is providing the exit polling data reworked/fudged the data late last night. We cannot rely on what the AP is showing us this morning.

We need snap shots from last night before they reworked their results.

If you've recorded news broadcasts, you might catch the data in those. Also cached browser images are a source. If you find them, screen shot them.
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RememberTheCoup Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:41 PM
Response to Reply #171
174. Maybe you should make this request a new thread...
...with a strong headline:

"*** Calling all DUers - Need your help proving fraud! ***

If anyone has cached browser images of exit polls in OH and FL, please send us the screen caps."



... or something like that
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Nederland Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 02:56 PM
Response to Reply #167
186. Confused
When you display this:

Male: 52/47 Kerry 46%
Female: 52/48 Kerry 54%

What does that mean? Is the 46% / 54% the male female ratio? Is the 52/47 the Bush/Kerry number among men? Is the 52/48 the Bush/Kerry number among women? If so, that's simply wrong because it would mean Bush was winning among men AND women, which we know is wrong.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 08:07 PM
Response to Reply #186
195. Explanation
FLORIDA

Male: 52/47 Bush/Kerry 46%
Female: 52/48 Bush/Kerry 54%

(0.46 * 52) + (0.54 * 47) = 49.3% Kerry
(0.46 * 52) + (0.54 * 48) = 49.8% Bush

52/47 means that 52% of men voted for Bush, and 47% voted for Kerry and a total of 46% of voters were men.

Women turned out for Kerry far more than for Bush. This appears to be a factor as to why he was ahead in the exit polls.

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Nederland Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 09:52 PM
Response to Reply #195
198. Still wrong
52/47 means that 52% of men voted for Bush, and 47% voted for Kerry and a total of 46% of voters were men.

Then by correlation, the second line (Female: 52/48 Bush/Kerry 54%):

52/48 means that 52% of women voted for Bush, and 48% voted for Kerry and a total of 54% of voters were women.

I really don't think that's correct, because that means that Kerry got 47% of men and only 48% of women. Are you suggesting that Kerry got less than of the women's vote than than Bush? You really need to get these number right because nothing you've said so far makes sense.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 12:06 PM
Response to Reply #198
207. Clarifying

Men: 52/47 46%

52% of men voted for Bush, 47% of men voted for Kerry. 46% of the total voters were men.

Women: 52/48 54%

52% of women voted for Kerry, 48% of women voted for Bush. A total of 54% of the voters were women.

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Nederland Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 02:26 PM
Response to Reply #207
211. Ok
So then we should have this:

(0.46 * 47) + (0.54 * 52) = 49.70% Kerry
(0.46 * 52) + (0.54 * 48) = 49.84% Bush

Exit Poll vote versus Recorded Result:

Bush: 49.84% vs. 52.15% +2.31%
Kerry: 49.70% vs. 47.02% -2.68%

Which is within the margin of error for the poll. There simply nothing odd going on here, even if you ignore the fact that the exit poll sample you are using is universally accepted as being flawed.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-05-04 12:05 AM
Response to Reply #211
220. Look at all the data, not just one state

You're cherry picking taking the state with a small margin and then dismissing the entire problem out of hand.

Ohio was the least anomalous when I took the sample. As you have now triple checked, it was less than 4%. However, the other states were much further off. Illinois and possibly Ohio are within the margin of error, the other states are not. Such a discrepancy also should of triggered automated systems and an investigation by the press pool that was recording the exit polling results. Rather than fulfill their oblugation to report the problem, they apparently modified their exit polling results instead so they matched the actual results!

---
Here is a summary of the results I recorded Tuesday evening.

I've rounded off to the nearest percent. The time listed is when I crunched the raw CNN Exit Poll data and produced the second value, which is a +/- value difference between what exit polls showed for Kerry vs. what was actually being reported by the precincts. For example, in Ohio Bush was +3% higher in actual precinct reporting than the exit poll data indicated.

In every case listed below, there is a discrepancy in favor of Bush between the exit polls and actual results. WIth the exception of Illinios, I'd call them outside of expected values.

Time Bush Bias State

08:34PM +3 Ohio
08:34PM +5 Florida
09:29PM +5 Michigan
09:30PM +2 Illinois
09:32PM +6 New Mexico
10:01PM +7 Wisconsin
10:07PM +5 Minnesota

The next three states had exit poll results that were virtually identical to the precinct reported results. This would indicate the exit polls were predicting results very accurately for these three states.

09:39PM +0.1 Nevada
10:36PM +0.1 New Hampshire
11:03PM +0.5 Maine

Nevada and New Hampshire have paper audit trials mandated by state law. Maine does not use any electronic voting machines. It's possible this is a coincidence, or perhaps the EVoting sytems have something to do with the problem. There is no way to be certain because the software running in those machines has not been inspected. The DNC attempted to do so in Florida, but were blocked by Republicans who said the software was "proprietary" and the DNC had no legal right to inspect it.

According to the compact signed by the six news agencies who performed the exit polling, automated systems should of been triggered on election night when these variances began between exit polls and actual results. They were then obligated to investigate the variances for potential problems.

It appears that rather than investigate and notify the public of a potential problem, they instead chose to modify their exit polling data in the wee hours of the morning so they would conform to the expected election results, which showed a Bush victory.

It is essential that we have faith in our voting process. I for one cannot accept these election results until an investigation has been performed,a full disclosure has been made of what went wrong and why, and it can be proven that our votes were properly registered and counted.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-05-04 12:06 AM
Response to Reply #167
222. *** FLORIDA EVoting Results by precint ***

I have not had time to analyze it yet. I would appreciate help from other DU members in doing so.

http://ustogether.org/Florida_Election.htm
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-05-04 12:08 AM
Response to Reply #167
223. *** ATTENTION: FLORIDA E-Voting Results by Precinct ***

I have not had time to analyze it yet. I would appreciate help from other DU members in doing so.

http://ustogether.org/Florida_Election.htm
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j_carters_neighbor Donating Member (34 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:46 PM
Response to Reply #164
176. Where is exit polling done
You don't think the discrepancies come fro the fact that exit polls are done in large cities, and do not take into account the vote in rural areas and small cities, that often have significantly different results in elections?
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 07:29 PM
Response to Reply #164
194. Your mistake here is due to your using the corrected results...
If you use the original uncorrected exit polls you will find that the case is made out clearly.
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RememberTheCoup Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:22 PM
Response to Original message
168. SoCalDem - important question
If the exit polling was tampered with, how can we use it to show vote tampering?
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RememberTheCoup Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:34 PM
Response to Reply #168
170. also is there any way to retrieve the earlier exit data?
Is it cached somewhere?
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:38 PM
Response to Reply #170
173. I'm sure some of it is cached

Anyone who viewed those sites during the election last night will have cached copies on their machines. We should round those up and make screen shots.

It's also possible we might obtain the raw data collected during the elction by AP under the FOIA. That's probably a job for MoveOn or the ACLU.
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Chi Donating Member (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 03:10 PM
Response to Reply #173
188. Posible sources for data
KOS, Atrios, and Kevin Drum (Washington monthly) would probably all have the numbers you seek.
Here are the 6PM ones from KOS (swing states only)

Kerry Bush

PA 53 46
FL 51 49
NC 48 52
OH 51 49
MO 46 54
AR 47 53
MI 51 47
NM 50 49
LA 43 56
CO 48 51
AZ 45 55
MN 54 44
WI 52 47
IA 49 49

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/2/183635/821

Sorry if ya already knew all that.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 12:12 PM
Response to Reply #188
208. Great data, thanks!

Shows Kerry leading in FL and OH after the polls closed, 2% lead in each state.
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RaulGroom Donating Member (331 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 02:01 PM
Response to Reply #168
178. Whoah There!
If the trends you're seeing are really there, this is an important story. Don't blow it with this CNN tampering business. Here's why you're seeing what you're seeing.

Exit polls are adjusted according to actual vote tallies as those tallies come in. That's why CNN changed their numbers. You just need to make sure you're comparing the unadjusted numbers.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 02:05 PM
Response to Reply #178
179. Take another look

The total change was +57 new voters that came in.

The net change to Kerry was a loss of votes. It's impossible to go negative as you add more voting results.

The AP reworked their data to have it better fit the expected results. Whether they completely fudged it, or re-sampled the data and threw out some results at this point is unclear. CNN has stated that they "oversampled" the black vote and redid their data.

We cannot trust the current exit polls in light of this information. We need to obtain the original data.
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SeanQ Donating Member (515 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 02:29 PM
Response to Reply #179
183. Thanks SoCalDemocrat!
Let me know if I can help automate analysis in some way.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 02:40 PM
Response to Reply #183
184. We need to find exit polling data

We need to find exit polling datafrom last night as the exit polling results are now suspect.

Also we need to compile voter turnout records by precinct and voting systems used in each precinct.
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Chi Donating Member (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 05:33 PM
Response to Reply #184
190. A few more exit numbers 4:30
http://slate.msn.com/id/2109053 /
Updated Late Afternoon Numbers
Mucho flattering to Kerry; plus Nader makes an appearance.
By Jack Shafer
Updated Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2004, at 4:28 PM PT

Florida
Kerry 51
Bush 49

Ohio
Kerry 51
Bush 49

Michigan
Kerry 52
Bush 46
Nader 1

Pennsylvania
Kerry 53
Bush 46

Iowa
Kerry 50
Bush 49

Wisconsin
Kerry 51
Bush 48
Nader 1

Minnesota
Kerry 52
Bush 46
Nader 2

New Hampshire
Kerry 54
Bush 44
Nader 1

New Mexico
Kerry 50
Bush 48
Nader 1

Colorado
Kerry 49
Bush 50
Nader 1

Arkansas
Kerry 45
Bush 54
Nader 1

Missouri
Kerry 47
Bush 52

New York
Kerry 62
Bush 36
Nader 2

Nevada
Kerry 49
Bush 48
Nader 1

New Jersey
Kerry 54
Bush 44
Nader 1

West Virginia
Kerry 45
Bush 54
Nader 1
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 06:45 PM
Response to Reply #190
191. Thanks for those numbers

Just doesn't look like the media will pick up the story. Maybe after a few lawsuits hammer on it?
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 02:50 PM
Response to Original message
185. Monitos - US voting systems worse than third world nations

http://iht.com/bin/print_ipub.php?file=/articles/2004/1...
MIAMI The global implications of the U.S. election are undeniable, but international monitors at a polling station in southern Florida said Tuesday that voting procedures being used in the extremely close contest fell short in many ways of the best global practices.

The observers said they had less access to polls than in Kazakhstan, that the electronic voting had fewer fail-safes than in Venezuela, that the ballots were not so simple as in the Republic of Georgia and that no other country had such a complex national election system.

"To be honest, monitoring elections in Serbia a few months ago was much simpler," said Konrad Olszewski, an election observer stationed in Miami by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.

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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 03:54 PM
Response to Original message
189. What happened to the fail safe system on the exit polls!
I found this in chache. Original story was deleted. It says the new polling consortium had automated checks in place to spit out warnings if the exit polls didn't match the results! So what happened? Instead of warning the public of possible fraud, the Bush Administration condemned the exit polls and the news consortium modified its exit poll data to conform to the then received actual results!

"Precautions are being taken to guard against human error as well. Using past elections as a guide, the AP's computer system is designed to spit out a warning if figures are entered that are significantly at odds with expected patterns - just to make sure the numbers are rechecked."

-----------------

Networks to test new exit polling system

By DAVID BAUDER
AP TELEVISION WRITER

NEW YORK -- Determined to avoid a repeat of high-profile failures in 2000 and 2002, television networks will rely on new systems on Nov. 2 to help project election winners and analyze why voters made their choices. And they have turned to The Associated Press to count the vote for them.

The six news organizations that have formed the National Election Pool - ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox News Channel and the AP - say they're confident things will go better this time, based on test runs and the experience of people involved.

Still, the TV networks said they would be careful projecting winners after prematurely declaring Florida, and the 2000 election, for George W. Bush. (The AP did not declare Bush the winner on election night). The election wasn't ultimately determined for weeks after vote recounts and court fights.

"We're just going to really, really be cautious," said Marty Ryan, Fox News Channel's executive producer for political coverage. "When we think we have it, we'll wait a few minutes and look again. Then we'll wait a few minutes and look again."

The networks blamed Voter News Service, the company they had formed to count votes and conduct exit polls, for faulty data that led to the wrong calls in 2000. VNS tried to rebuild its system, but it broke down on election night 2002 and failed to provide usable exit polling information. VNS was then disbanded.



This time, the news organizations contracted with two veteran polling companies - Mitofsky International and Edison Media Research - to conduct exit polls. They agreed that the AP - which has been tallying votes in elections since 1848 - would be their sole source for vote counts, and the news cooperative has significantly beefed up its system in response.

Each of the organizations will use data provided by NEP to make its own projections election night. The organizations also have promised, for the first time in a presidential election, not to call states that span two time zones until all of the polling places have closed.

One flaw exposed in 2000 - the failure of VNS to account for the increased use of absentee ballots - has been corrected, said Linda Mason of CBS News, an NEP spokeswoman. Telephone surveys of people voting by absentee ballots will be conducted in 13 states this year, instead of just three.

Mason said two other technical adjustments were made to increase reliability: NEP will conduct exit polling in more voter precincts and have access to a greater number of past vote counts to use on a comparison basis.

"The things that clearly went wrong four years ago, it's hard to imagine them going wrong again with what they've done with this system," said David Bohrman, CNN's Washington bureau chief.

Both the exit polls and vote counts worked with no serious problems during the 2004 primaries and in stress tests, network officials said. Full dress rehearsals will be conducted on Oct. 23 and 30.

Several networks promised to do a better job explaining to viewers how they make projections and even to assign correspondents to their decision desks. ABC has increased training given to its election night team, and CNN is hiring its own statistical analysts to pore over data.

"Every election is different," said Bill Wheatley, NBC News vice president. "In this one, we're cognizant of the fact that additional absentee ballots are being cast, registration levels are up and there may be additional disputes over the reliability of voting machines. We'll factor all of these into our deliberations."

Four years ago, the networks relied on VNS for its count of the actual votes and used the AP's vote-counting as a backup. Now, the AP will go it alone.

The AP will have stringers calling in results from each of the nation's 4,600 counties. Hundreds of people will be assigned to input the information into computers, and others will monitor the systems to guard against problems. In all, a total of about 5,500 people will be working on AP's vote count on election night.

"We have real confidence in the reliability of the AP's vote count," said Kathleen Carroll, AP senior vice president and executive editor. "We also have enormous confidence in the journalists in the field and the bureau chiefs who will be using the data and their experience when they call winners in the race."

The AP relied on that experience on election night 2000 to resist calling the election for Bush, despite enormous pressure after the networks had made their projections.

Most of the AP election night staff has done the job before, said Tom Jory, the cooperative's director of elections tabulations. The AP also has built in new system redundancies to protect against computer or telephone system failures, he said.

Precautions are being taken to guard against human error as well. Using past elections as a guide, the AP's computer system is designed to spit out a warning if figures are entered that are significantly at odds with expected patterns - just to make sure the numbers are rechecked.

"The AP has a long history of doing these things in general," said Dan Merkle, ABC News decision desk director. "With these other improvements, we feel very confident in the AP."

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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 09:28 PM
Response to Original message
196. MSNBC/Slate sourced this piece with some error and omission
Their article is here http://slate.msn.com/id/2109141#ContinueArticle

This is my response:

Editors,

Your article, "Rage Against the Machines", cited my post on DU, and I felt compelled to point out a couple errors and omissions in the piece.

The Exit Poll data you used was modified late last night, and the article failed to mention the apparent controversy surrounding the changes to the exit polls. Perhaps that is to be expected since your news agency is one of the organizations that provided this data?

NH and NV were marching along lock step between exit polls and reported results last night for hours after the polls closed, with most or all of precincts reported by the APs exit polling.

Do us "conspiracy-minded folk" a favor and explain a couple of points for me. First, what happened to the "fail safe systems" that should of triggered automatically to report variances between exit polls and actual results?

"Precautions are being taken to guard against human error as well. Using past elections as a guide, the AP's computer system is designed to spit out a warning if figures are entered that are significantly at odds with expected patterns - just to make sure the numbers are rechecked."

Second, please explain what happened to the exit polling data around 1:30am CST last night when we observed the following modification to the election results we had been closely monitoring. Note that +57 new votes were added but Kerry actually had votes subtracted from his totals after this update.







--------------
-----------------

Networks to test new exit polling system

By DAVID BAUDER
AP TELEVISION WRITER

NEW YORK -- Determined to avoid a repeat of high-profile failures in 2000 and 2002, television networks will rely on new systems on Nov. 2 to help project election winners and analyze why voters made their choices. And they have turned to The Associated Press to count the vote for them.

The six news organizations that have formed the National Election Pool - ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox News Channel and the AP - say they're confident things will go better this time, based on test runs and the experience of people involved.

Still, the TV networks said they would be careful projecting winners after prematurely declaring Florida, and the 2000 election, for George W. Bush. (The AP did not declare Bush the winner on election night). The election wasn't ultimately determined for weeks after vote recounts and court fights.

"We're just going to really, really be cautious," said Marty Ryan, Fox News Channel's executive producer for political coverage. "When we think we have it, we'll wait a few minutes and look again. Then we'll wait a few minutes and look again."

The networks blamed Voter News Service, the company they had formed to count votes and conduct exit polls, for faulty data that led to the wrong calls in 2000. VNS tried to rebuild its system, but it broke down on election night 2002 and failed to provide usable exit polling information. VNS was then disbanded.



This time, the news organizations contracted with two veteran polling companies - Mitofsky International and Edison Media Research - to conduct exit polls. They agreed that the AP - which has been tallying votes in elections since 1848 - would be their sole source for vote counts, and the news cooperative has significantly beefed up its system in response.

Each of the organizations will use data provided by NEP to make its own projections election night. The organizations also have promised, for the first time in a presidential election, not to call states that span two time zones until all of the polling places have closed.

One flaw exposed in 2000 - the failure of VNS to account for the increased use of absentee ballots - has been corrected, said Linda Mason of CBS News, an NEP spokeswoman. Telephone surveys of people voting by absentee ballots will be conducted in 13 states this year, instead of just three.

Mason said two other technical adjustments were made to increase reliability: NEP will conduct exit polling in more voter precincts and have access to a greater number of past vote counts to use on a comparison basis.

"The things that clearly went wrong four years ago, it's hard to imagine them going wrong again with what they've done with this system," said David Bohrman, CNN's Washington bureau chief.

Both the exit polls and vote counts worked with no serious problems during the 2004 primaries and in stress tests, network officials said. Full dress rehearsals will be conducted on Oct. 23 and 30.

Several networks promised to do a better job explaining to viewers how they make projections and even to assign correspondents to their decision desks. ABC has increased training given to its election night team, and CNN is hiring its own statistical analysts to pore over data.

"Every election is different," said Bill Wheatley, NBC News vice president. "In this one, we're cognizant of the fact that additional absentee ballots are being cast, registration levels are up and there may be additional disputes over the reliability of voting machines. We'll factor all of these into our deliberations."

Four years ago, the networks relied on VNS for its count of the actual votes and used the AP's vote-counting as a backup. Now, the AP will go it alone.

The AP will have stringers calling in results from each of the nation's 4,600 counties. Hundreds of people will be assigned to input the information into computers, and others will monitor the systems to guard against problems. In all, a total of about 5,500 people will be working on AP's vote count on election night.

"We have real confidence in the reliability of the AP's vote count," said Kathleen Carroll, AP senior vice president and executive editor. "We also have enormous confidence in the journalists in the field and the bureau chiefs who will be using the data and their experience when they call winners in the race."

The AP relied on that experience on election night 2000 to resist calling the election for Bush, despite enormous pressure after the networks had made their projections.

Most of the AP election night staff has done the job before, said Tom Jory, the cooperative's director of elections tabulations. The AP also has built in new system redundancies to protect against computer or telephone system failures, he said.

Precautions are being taken to guard against human error as well. Using past elections as a guide, the AP's computer system is designed to spit out a warning if figures are entered that are significantly at odds with expected patterns - just to make sure the numbers are rechecked.

"The AP has a long history of doing these things in general," said Dan Merkle, ABC News decision desk director. "With these other improvements, we feel very confident in the AP."

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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 09:43 PM
Response to Original message
197. What happened to the black vote?

National results indicate 17% went to Bush, which is very hard to believe in spite of the right wing spin.

Independent polling however indicates 9 out of 10 black votes was cast for Kerry/Edwards, and that the turnout was of record proportions.

Why the discrepancy?

--------

Surveys by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International showed that nationally, blacks made up about 10 percent of voters at the polls. About 9 in 10 voted for Senator John Kerry, an overwhelming number that roughly mirrored the black turnout for Al Gore in 2000.

The numbers for blacks appeared similar in Florida, where Election Day get-out-the-vote efforts in black neighborhoods sometimes found few people who needed getting out.

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BreakForNews Donating Member (241 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 11:01 PM
Response to Original message
200. Copulation Control 2004 - How America Got Screwed.
Copulation Control 2004
--How America Got Screwed.

by Fintan Dunne
http://www.BreakForNews.com
3rd November, 2004

Copulation Control is they means by which the U.S. political elite copulates with the electorate. As with any copulation, this is usually preceeded by some sort of seduction. Which is where John Kerry comes in. Rattles Bones. And goes out again. With hardly a murmur....

When the electorate, particularly the valliant defenders of the Democratic Tradition, woke up on Wednesday, 3rd Nov., it was to realize that they were missing their underwear.

They have groggy recollections of a late night out on the town, on Tuesday night. And their missing political underwear surely gives a clue to what happened last night.

(Clues picked up already by some on the popular Democratic Underground forum.)

Last night, despite only dim recollections, they must have been screwed. Well and truly. It must have been exciting... at the time.

A sudden slew of critical late, late night results --for a sleepy electorate. And it's all over. The long queues a phantasm of memory. The turnout... didn't turn out as expected.

Every vote counts. But, hey! Who's counting? Not Dean, so smoothly to Kerry. So soft the wash of dissent, guided to fall silently on the rocky shores of electronic hardware. So virtual, Democracy. So long.

"Follow me," said the piper. To an election with No Exit.

That's Copulation Control.
2004.
(Like 2000 -only Ohio)

Fintan Dunne 11/03/'04
http://www.breakfornews.com/Copulation-Control-2004.htm

Listen to the Full Audio Report (mp3)
http://www.kathymcmahon.utvinternet.com/mrn/audio/Insid...

Download the Full Audio Report (zip/mp3)
http://www.kathymcmahon.utvinternet.com/mrn/audio/Insid...

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MissRegina Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 11:35 PM
Response to Original message
201. Check this out! Great stuff.
Turns out--exit polls don't mean shit. It's the actual votes by real Americans that matter! Imagine that.

http://www.slate.com/id/2109134 /
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crickets Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 05:57 AM
Response to Original message
202. Kick
This shouldn't go in the archives yet. Thank you SoCalDemocrat, and thanks to all who have worked to add data.

:dem:
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Tom Rinaldo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 07:17 AM
Response to Original message
203. Is there a national map of which voting methodology was used where?
I would Love to see a visual presentation, broken down by counties if possible since that varied within some states, showing how the vote was collected/recorded for this election. Which areas used Diebold without paper trails, which used evoting with paper trails, which used optical scanners, punch cards etc.? It would be valuable to compare a number of things including obviously which methods came closest to matching the exit polls, but also which methods recorded higher and lower voter turn outs relative to trends in "comparable" counties (either in that same state or in a state with a similar voter profile) using alternate technology.

Also am I mistaken that during the day poll watchers kept records of the number of voters who had already voted in individual polling districts (which were used for voter turn out efforts) that we can compare to the final recorded figures for those polling precincts to see if there is any pattern of under reporting of votes?
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 10:41 AM
Response to Reply #203
204. Just state by state that I've seen

We really need one by precinct for the swing states.

During election day the press was not allowed to give out the exit polling data. Now that it's passed, we should be able to obtain and analyze it. I'm looking forward to piecing together what happened on Nov 2nd.

Kerry was exit polling well until 10-11pm PST, hours after the actual polls had closed. Then we had an adjustment to the exit polls and the snapped into line with the Bush projected wins.
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Chi Donating Member (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 02:09 PM
Response to Reply #204
209. Got a voting method map
Doesnt appear to go below county level though.

http://verifiedvoting.org/verifier/index.php?state=&top...

Sorry if it doesnt help.
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Chi Donating Member (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 02:11 PM
Response to Reply #204
210. Whoops
Just read down and saw you have it already.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 10:53 AM
Response to Original message
205. New Hampshire unexpected results
REPOST
--------------

Okay folks, I have been doing some analysis of the voting trends for the New Hampshire stuff because of the excellent work by Faun Otter in this thread: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph ...

To sum up my understanding, the exit polls CONSISTENTLY BEING WRONG IN BUSH'S FAVOR IS MATHEMATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE.

I picked New Hampshire because of two things -- we "won it", and the exit polls were wrong by 15%.

Out of the 300 counties, ONLY SIX did NOT show an increase in voter turnout: the increased turnout is NOT a myth.

ONLY FIVE had more votes for THIRD PARTY CANDIDATES in 2004 than they they did in 2000 DESPITE this increased turnout. Totals for these FIVE wards were 2004 Other = 24 vs 2000 Other = 10; All other 295 showed LOWER VOTES (and minuscule percentages) for Third Party Candidates. This is NOT a Nader issue.

71 of the 300 are the ones I'm most concerned with because Kerry LOST to Bush by a GREATER PERCENTAGE than Gore did in 2000. In all 229 other wards -- even where Kerry LOSES the district -- his numbers INCREASE percentage wise.

There are obviously some variables that we need to figure out, which is why I'm asking for some "boots on the ground" help in New Hampshire. Please go look at the DATA on http://www.invisibleida.com/New_Hampshire.htm and let me know if this makes sense --

A= Under 200 Votes (3 of 19 or 16%)
B= 201 - 500 Votes (1 of 30 or 3%)
C= 501 - 1000 Votes (6 of 43 or 14%)
D= 1001 - 2000 Votes (11 of 77 or 14%)
E= 2001 - 5000 Votes (39 of 109 or 36%)
F= 5001 - 10000 Votes (6 of 15 or 40%)
G= Over 10001 Votes (5 of 7 or 71%)

which I translate to BIG CITIES IN NEW HAMPSHIRE GOT MORE CONSERVATIVE? I don't think so.

I think starting with Benton in Grafton is probably the best way: its small, and there were only 178 voters this year (compared to 117 in 2000). They did NOT follow trend, and in fact, the town went CRAZY with a 10% increase in Bush voters. Does this make any sense to anyone familiar with the area?

I need some people to make some phone calls to the voters in those precincts, which means getting the voter call sheets from the Democrats in New Hampshire. Help me out here, people -- I think we can PROVE some fraud! (Benton would be the easiest -- if more than 60 people say they voted for Kerry, it should be OVER....)

Mods, I'll be posting this in several forums, since I'm not sure where people are hanging out these days....
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 10:57 AM
Response to Original message
206. EVoting by State and Precinct
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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 02:40 PM
Response to Reply #206
212. Damn! This pisses me off!!!
014840 10/25/04, 12:26 PM PST Absentee-ballot related problem Jefferson County, Kentucky She is at school in MA, but is registered in Jefferson County in Kentucky. She asked for an absentee ballot, twice, but has not yet received it. The same thing happened in 2000. She is concerned that because she is registered as a Democrat, she is not being catered to, while her Republican registered friends are receiving their absentee ballots in good time. She also had real problems getting through to the election offices to ask about her absentee ballot. She was told they did not have the facility to put people on hold - instead she would just get a busy signal and eventually the connection would be cut.

043764 11/02/04, 2:29 PM PST Voter Intimidation; Criminal status-related problem 1126 South 6th Street, Louisv ille, Jefferson County, Kentucky Name was not in book at polling place; pollers called the board of elections; this man had a felony but has finished probation. He asked to vote provisionally and they told him if he did he'd be locked up.

046307 11/02/04, 3:57 PM PST Criminal status-related problem St. Louis Bernard Church, Louisville, Jefferson County, Kentucky Voter witnessed 2 men in front of him in line at polling place who were ex-fellons; both were turned away; voter heard one of them say that had served all his time and had his rights restored and had registered; asked for provisional ballot and told that could not get one.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 10:34 PM
Response to Original message
215. Rebuttal to Salon comments
"The most obvious example here is Nevada, the only state in the nation to use what many computer scientists consider to be the safest touch screen machines -- machines that print a paper ballot that is reviewed by the voter as each vote is cast, a so-called voter-verified paper trail. In Nevada, the last exit polls showed Kerry leading Bush by 49 to 48 percent, with 1 percent for Ralph Nader. The actual result was a win for Bush by 51 to 48 percent. "

That's correct, as of November 3rd, the exit polling in Nevada shows a discrepancy. I checked those results myself on the 3rd. What you've failed to realize, and point out, is that the exit polling data was changed sometime shortly after 1:30AM CST. Prior to that, the exit polls for Nevada were tracking accurately with the precinct reporting results. I've posted the screen shots of one of the changes that we had a before and after for, but none of the news agencies commenting on this story are bothering to mention that fact.

I suggest those who have access go back to before 10PM PST on Nov 2nd, before they were changed, and use the exit polling data at that time to do the comparison. What I heard was that CNN claimed they had "oversampled black voters" so they re-did their calculations.

The Edison company began conforming the exit polls to match the actual results after 1:30AM CST.





"And even in states that do use paperless touch-screen machines, it's not clear that Bush made his gains in touch-screen areas of the states, rather than regions that use other machines. For instance, in Florida, it's the state's large South Florida counties that use paperless touch screens. But Bush did worse in these regions in 2004 than in 2000. In the 2000 race in Miami-Dade, Bush got about 47 percent of the two-party share of the vote, while Al Gore received 53 percent; this year, Bush only got 46 percent of the two-party vote there, while Kerry got 54 percent. What this means is that in the move from punch-card machines (which, as everyone remembers, Miami-Dade used in 2000) to paperless touch screens, Bush actually did worse, not better. At the same time, the president gained in Orange County, Florida. In 2000, Gore beat Bush in Orange County, whose largest city is Orlando; this year, Kerry lost to Bush there. And Bush didn't need rigged machines to do it -- Orlando uses paper-based optical scan voting machines, which computer scientists consider more reliable than the touch screen systems. "

It's irrelevant whether Kerry won Orange County or not. A state's electoral votes are decided by the total number of votes for each candidate. Bush losing 1% vs. 2000 is readily explained by a much higher turnout in 2004 vs. 2000. Anyone who stood in line for hours in Florida to vote will attest to the turnout.

If we want to speculate, and at this point it is speculation, as to the cause, it could of been machine results in a Republican county that were in error or changed.

What needs to happen is an investigation into the exit polls and why they were off in a number of states vs. the actual results that were announced.


Here are the results for FLORIDA and OHIO using the exit poll data before it was modified to match the actual voting results:

FLORIDA

Male: 52/47 Kerry 46%
Female: 52/48 Kerry 54%

(0.46 * 52) + (0.54 * 47) = 49.3% Kerry
(0.46 * 52) + (0.54 * 48) = 49.8% Bush

Exit polls using the breakdown you provided shows a dead heat.

The actual reported results have Bush winning Florida by 5%.

OHIO

Male: 51/49 Kerry 47%
Female: 53/47 Kerry 53%

(0.47 * 51) + (0.53 * 49) = 49.94% Kerry
(0.47 * 53) + (0.53 * 47) = 49.82% Bush

Exit polls show a dead heat.

The actual reported results have Bush winning Ohio by 3% and 1% to Nader.

Here is Nevada, as the poster said, with a disparity as of Nov 3rd.
This disparity was not present on the evening of the 2nd.

NEVADA (from MSNBC this morning)

Kerry 44 54 with 48% Men
Bush 52 47 with 52% Women

(0.48 * 54) + (0.52 * 44) = 48.8% Kerry
(0.48 * 52) + (0.52 * 47) = 49.4% Bush

Exit polls, Bush ahead by 0.6%. Actual results Bush won by 3%
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RBHam Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 11:08 PM
Response to Original message
216. Kick
Once again
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PROGRESSIVE1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 11:46 PM
Response to Original message
217. kick
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rawstory Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-05-04 12:06 AM
Response to Reply #217
221. kick.
salon is full of shit. let's hope our sources with that national newsweekly hold water.
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oasis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-05-04 12:25 AM
Response to Reply #217
224. kick
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-05-04 01:28 AM
Response to Original message
225. For those who claim people lie to exit polls
In several states they apparently always tell the truth.

at 10:36PM in NewHampshire, everyone was telling the truth because the exit polls matched the results within 0.1%

at 9:39PM in Nevada, everyone was still telling the truth. The exit polls matched the results within 0.1%

at 11:03pm in Maine, people were still telling the truth and exit polls matched the results within 0.5%


In Ohio, a Diebold machine subtracted 25,000 votes from John Kerry. The same thing happened in a Florida precinct in 2000.

At 1:36am CST the organization that publishes the exit polling data modified the data to coincide with the results of the election in a number of states. Here is a screen shot from just one of those states, showing what they did. The resulting data was aligned with the Bush victory.

BEFORE


AFTER


Some of you are good at math. Run the numbers. You'll see Kerry actually lost votes and all of the 57 new votes added apparently went to Bush. Look at the increase in both Men and Women voting for Bush after they adulterated the data.

I'm not suggesting it was a conspiracy. The AP took massive heat in 2000 over exit polling. They may well of modified it just to cover their ass and get the results back in line with what was being reported. I spoke with a reporter, who had spoken to CNN. According to the reporter, CNN said they had "oversampled blacks" and that was why they made the adjustment. The adjustment as it were, was made across numerous states, all at the same time in the late hours of the night.

I findi it improbable, especially in states like Maine where there are virtually no black voters to begin with.
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Only Me Donating Member (631 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 01:10 AM
Response to Reply #225
235. kick. n/t
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txindy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 12:44 AM
Response to Reply #225
237. Curiouser and curiouser
Somehow, it always wends its way back to Florida and Jeb, doesn't it?

After all of the presidential votes are investigated, I really hope someone takes a good long look at the DeLay re-election here in Texas. I can well imagine that there was some fiddling there. In Texas, of all places. Not beyond the realm of possibility. Particularly since I'm sure Rove wants DeLay back in Congress.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-10-04 03:12 PM
Response to Reply #237
238. WE need to do some cross checking

I wish we could start calling Democrats in a few of the really bad precincts to verify their votes.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-05-04 08:21 AM
Response to Original message
226. kick
.
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KWBS Donating Member (96 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-05-04 09:16 AM
Response to Original message
227. From a Republican that backed Kerry - Edwards
In 1980 the South had 26 Democratic Senators, today it has 4. If you look at the national "red versus blue" map at both State and County level it is not hard to see that the DNC has become very isolated from the mainstream of this nation.

2 to 1 Americans classify themselves as conservatives and many moderates vote to the right, not the left on many issues.

Bush has one Achilles Heel that will bring him down, take the wind out of his Imperial Sails and that is 9-11.

I was part of the 9-11 Confronting the Evidence in NYC this year. I was part of the criminal complaint that was delivered to Eliot Spitzer on October 28, 2004.

Over 55 million voted against and many of those voters were ecumenical Christians you people are blindly bashing. They were Conservative Republicans and Libertarians that crossed over to try to stop the Bush Junta and the fascism that is represents.

Right here in Arkansas - two key counties that NEVER vote REP did vote Republican this year. Jefferson and Nevada counties and there were others.

The problem with DNC is DNC and that it represents the fringe left and that is NOT America folks. 2 to 1 says this nation is a conservative nation and one that puts certain values front and center every time.

www.karlschwarz.com

http://www.reopen911.org/petition.php

http://www.justicefor911.org /

All of this talk about running Hillary Clinton in 2008. The RNC has been ready to destroy her since 1994. The strategy that took the House and Senate away from Clinton was designed and largely financed by me. Again, run Hillary, rash into the side of the mountain. They are just waiting for another stupid DNC move.

I took a stand for America, freedom, a turning away from Imperialism and fascism. I have received hundreds of emails from Dems asking what to do now. Frankly, DNC is not "resuscitate-able" in its current form. Lest no one noticed, Bush now controls a stronger US Senate and that is more frightening than him being there for 4 more years.

Every person that voted against Bush should be on those petitions linked above.

It is the only hope you have to stopping Bush, and I am the only Republican of the 100 original names on the petition.

If you have not done so, go to my website under Articles and read the DEMAND LETTER that I sent to Bush September 30, 2004 about 7 hours before the first debate and THEN - get this CLEARLY INTO YOUR HEADS -

that DEMAND LETTER was sent to DNC and Kerry too and they did not use it in the debates to evicerate Bush. CONSIDER THAT!

Both sides of the aisle are covering up 9-11 folks, who did it, who is profiting from it and they are AMERICANS.

Ashcroft was forced to resign due to that letter and I was advised from DC yesterday to NOT accept that as the sacrificial offering and let the rest of the DOERS OF 9-11 OFF THE HOOK!

Wake up Dems.

Karl
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-05-04 04:48 PM
Response to Reply #227
228. Linking Bush to 9-11?

I think you're going to have difficulty tying the President to 9-11 closely enough to get him impeached. Clearly they administration failed in their responsibilities to protect Americans, but I don't know if you can prove negligence, or willfull misconduct.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-05-04 04:48 PM
Response to Reply #227
229. Linking Bush to 9-11?

I think you're going to have difficulty tying the President to 9-11 closely enough to get him impeached. Clearly they administration failed in their responsibilities to protect Americans, but I don't know if you can prove negligence, or willfull misconduct.
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skip fox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-05-04 04:54 PM
Response to Original message
230. If Soros did not offer a $10 million reward for proof of fraud
of this nature, then perhaps he shoud consider doing so.

This is the way to really find proof. $10 million should "jog" some programmer (even a wing-nut) to spill the beans. and tell how it was done.

Then things might get cracking.

Great work SoCalDemocrat!!!
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-05-04 11:15 PM
Response to Reply #230
233. Good idea
He might even put up the money!
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Spazito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-05-04 05:30 PM
Response to Original message
232. Kick
:kick:
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Kerry in 04 Donating Member (232 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 12:44 AM
Response to Reply #232
234. kick
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