New CBS poll: '04 Election Could Be 2000 Redux

[wyldwolf]

A CBS News/New York Times poll shows that the election year is starting with a White House race that resembles the ultra-close and hotly-contested race of 2000.

If the November presidential election were held today, 45% of voters say they would vote for the Democratic candidate and 43% would vote to re-elect President Bush.

Late last month, the President held a 49% to 40% edge. The standing today is similar to what it was in November 2003, before the capture of Saddam Hussein.

The poll was conducted among a nationwide random sample of 1022 adults, interviewed by telephone between Jan. 12 and Jan. 15.

Much of this sentiment seems already locked in place, suggesting the coming year could see a tight struggle for undecided voters: 63% say their mind is already made up, while 36% say it is too soon to say for sure.

http://cbsnewyork.com/topstories/topstories_story_017195957.html

[BobbyJay]

1. This is why we have to have a candidate that can push us over in swing

states.

[wyldwolf]

3. And that would be...

The decision in November is going to come down to 15 states and just a few percentage points. So, I had to ask myself -- and I want you to honestly ask yourselves -- who has the BEST chance of winning Florida, West Virginia, Arizona, Nevada, Missouri, Ohio? Because THAT is the only thing that is going to matter in the end. You know the answer -- and it ain't you or me or our good internet doctor.

-- Michael Moore

[BobbyJay]

6. Oh it's Clark, I have no doubt.

Kerry and Edwards would be good also.

[mlawson]

2. 36% undecided?? After three years of bush???

I hope that bunch doesn't bother to vote!!! :eyes:

[funky_bug]

7. Amen to THAT

Where have these people BEEN????

[meti57b]

4. at least it's close and we're not way far behind. That's a great start!

Our candidates and the Democratic Party just need to keep hammering away at the bush administration and frontman duhbie! We need to work hard and send them some bucks.

[funky_bug]

9. You might want to re-read those figures!

"45% of voters say they would vote for the Democratic candidate and 43% would vote to re-elect President Bush."

That means, if the election were held to day (barring all the undecided), we would win (barring Harris and another FL fiasco.)

[gulliver]

5. Lousy headline.

They speciously speculate on the 2004 election in November rather than simply headlining the fact: Bush's Job Approval Drops 10 Points.

[On the Road]

8. This is Great, Great News!

Usually an incumbent has a big advantage, but Bush has squandered his goodwill and lost most of that potential. Battle lines have hardened. Flip-flops will be rare. Progress will be difficult.

The electoral math is: Even without FL, Gore + 1 wins. ANY state. AR, NH, AZ, WV. And barring a strange electoral map, a Dem win in FL or OH will almost guarantee a general election victory.

I think most of the Dems' energy in 2004 should be in locking up the blue states in 2000. The rest should be in breaking off a few swing states.

[lovedems]

10. So will they produce the

dead and bloated carcus of Osama, or will they wait unti October? This administration is so short sighted, I expect something of that nature soon. Anytime they get back into the low 50's, something "extraordinary" happens.

[TreasonousBastard]

11. There are a lot more numbers in there...

that are interesting.

27% of Republicans say they haven't made their minds up yet.

and...

"However, it is still quite early. Even with the Democratic primaries and caucuses about to start, voters nationwide are still not tuning in to the race. Only slightly more than one in five is paying a lot of attention.

"Even Democratic primary voters nationwide are not particularly tuned in yet. Just 26% of them are paying a lot of attention, and 43% are paying some – much the same levels found among all voters."

There are a lot of other numbers in there to play with. but, essentially, they are saying that the race has really just begun.

This really looks pretty good. Aside from us political junkies, hardly anybody has really taken a serious look at Shrub vs. name-your-Democrat. When they start looking, our guy, whoever he is, will probably look pretty good.

If we get an attractive candidate, (I shall pass on my opinion of the most attractive candidate-- someone else is sure to chime in with one) I have no doubt we can get out the pissed-off-Democrat vote and bring more than a few pissed Republicans to our side. Perhaps many Republicans who can't bring themselves to vote Democratic will just stay home.

It won't be easy, but we've got a great shot at pulling this off. We even have a shot at a great candidate having enough coattails to bring along a few Senate seats.

[dusty64]

12. Interesting.

:kick: