Should we assume the heavy turnout favors Democrats?

[ALago1]

Given the projections for heavy turnout, and the early reports that confirm such projections, I am happy that this country has been politically awakened to an extent.

However, why does the conventional wisdom assume that this is almost definitely good for Democrats? Can't one argue that passions are inflamed on both sides and the increased turnout just represents an inflamed polarized nation?

I'm hoping for a decisive Kerry victory tonight. I don't want to be surprised and find out that this increased turnout is due to Bush fanatics as well as Kerry supporters.

[KingChicken]

1. Absolutely, the turn out is key and its looking better than I expected.

Days not even half over and we seeing a huge turnout all over!

[dkamin]

2. The reason

Most non-voters are Democrat. In addition, you have the phenomenon of most undecideds breaking away from the incumbent. Finally, the limited polling done among traditional non-voters suggests they will break heavily to Kerry, if they vote, which it appears they are doing.

[faithfulcitizen]

think it's both, but still favors democrats nt

[Mr_Spock]

7. Yep, and let's just pray that history works for us today!!

I am cautiously optimistic - let's turn red to blue!!

[LisaL]

3. Normally, yes, heavy turnout favors democrats.

I think the reason for it is that there are more democrats than republicans, but democrats do not get out and vote as well as republicans do.
Heave turnout here in OH despite the rain.
Go Kerry!

[ExclamationPoint]

11. that makes sense

there are more people who are for the people

[Burma Jones]

4. I think so.............

The usual Republican voters usually vote. Generally, since they do not usually occupy hourly jobs, they have always been able to get out and vote.

Gee, did I hedge enough??????

I don't know what the frightened rabbit vote will be, but it will go primarily to the Chimp.

[freetobegay]

5. Don't assume anything!

Just keep saying go vote!

[sister moon]

6. I believe it's good for Dems

because the majority of young people, who traditionally have a poor turnout, are going to the polls to vote for Kerry. One stat I saw today was 65% Kerry 35% Bush 0%undecided among newly registered young people.Factor in the AfricanAmerican population and I don't see how we can lose. Unless, the Pukes have rigged the election.

[MoJoWorkin]

10. Rigged IS the operative word

I saw Rove's smug face on tv last nite saying they had Ohio and Fl in the bag. THAT MEANS THE FIX IS IN! Boy, do I hope I am wrong.

[Celebrandil]

8. Kerry = Change, HeavyTurnout = Change -> HeavyTurnout = Kerry

If you vote Kerry you want change, if you vote Bush you think everything is fine as it is. A heavy turnout and many new registrations indicate that a large number of people previously didn't care, but now want change. Thus... it ought to favior Kerry.

[aden_nak]

9. Even the Talking Head Whores have said as much.

[AntiCoup2K4]

12. Logically, people who have sat out the last few elections.......

...aren't going to be motivated to finally get off their ass and vote because they like the way things are going. Therefore, Junior isn't likely to get many of the newly registered voters. Not to mention the new young 18-25 voters who aren't buying Dumbass's promise that there won't be a draft.

The rabid right turns out in EVERY election. That's how they stole Congress in 1994. So the increase in turnout is in our favor, definitely.

[mikehiggins]

13. There aren't as many of them as there are of us

Its simple math. The 49% polled for Bush includes Bush-aholics, fundamentalists, and also folks who just honestly beleive we shouldn't change leaders in times like these.

On the other side are the ABB's (yeah, I'm still ABB), the hard-core democrats, the anti-war folks, the anti-draft folks, the pro-Kerry folks (yeah, there's a lot of them out there too), the pro-President Gore folks AND the you-aren't-going-to-stop-us-this-time black voters, and all those people who don't want P.Diddy to kill them (VOTE OR DIE is a weird slogan). Add to them the youngin's who got turned on by Eminem and the olderin's who listen to the Boss, and get out your calculators.

If everyone votes their beleifs, there are a hell of a lot more of us than there are of them.

From now on you can spell toast, B-U-S-H

[rocktivity]

14. The bigger the turnout, the better it is for Democrats

simply because there are more of us. Even Puff "Vote or Die" Diddy has "broken" for the challenger by appearing at Kerry rally. Bi-partisan my :kick: --he knows that having his customers ducking bullets overseas is bad for business!


rocknation

[Rainbowreflect]

15. Yes! Heard somewhere last night that if 120 million

Americans vote Kerry will win, no question.

[October]

16. Read Krugman...he makes mention of heavy turnout

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/02/opinion/02krugman.html?hp

[Getchasome]

17. Passions may be inflamed for both

sides, but if every citizen in this country voted, and I mean 100% registration and turnout, the democrats would win hands down every time. Despite what the repukes tell us, they haven't been able to get the majority of Americans to follow their idiology, that's why they use the "liberal media" mantra as a way of explaining why the majority of America doesn't follow their garbage ideas. They try and make everyone think that the media has duped everyone and they are the ones who know what's right for the country.

[BillZBubb]

18. Usually heavy turnout favors the Democrats or the challenger

This election, though, is not usual. I'll bet the religious element of the Republican campaign will get them a big boost in their turnout. They'll get every fundy nutjob to the polls this year. They weren't as fanatical about Bush* in 2000 as they are now.

I think 2000 convinced a lot of people who otherwise might not vote, that their vote may actually matter. So that will increase turnout on both sides.

All in all, my guess is that a very heavy turnout is a small net plus for the Democrats, but will not be decisive. There is one exception: younger voters. If the Democrats get out younger voters in a major way, that could swing this election their way solidly.

[leftynyc]

24. I'm not sure about that

The fundies can't be happy with * saying he would support civil unions and that the pub platform was wrong on that issue.

[mmonk]

19. Never assume

There are many churches out there working feverously against Kerry because this is a chance they see for overturning Roe v. Wade. We don't know how many they are bringing or motivating to the polls.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

20. exactly. getting gleeful about high turnout is dangerous

lets just focus on getting out Kerry voters.

[Jack Rabbit]

21. It usually does

And Republican goons are trying to make sure it stays low.

[Pump Man]

22. THAT IS WHY THEY TRYING TO STOP PEOPLE FROM VOTING

http://special.msn.com/msn/election2004.armx

[mellowinman]

23. People don't turn out in droves to keep the incumbent.

Motivated voting bloc=Motivated for change.