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KERRY Leads Undecideds in Iowa, Highest Second-Choice Total

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liberalpragmatist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-17-04 12:30 PM
Original message
KERRY Leads Undecideds in Iowa, Highest Second-Choice Total
Some good trends for John Kerry. I will acknowledge that polls are erratic and Iowa's a tremendously difficult place to poll. It really is true that ANY of the four can win it (okay, maybe not Edwards, but he could come damn close).

John Kerry has some good numbers going into Monday night. He still leads in the Zogby poll and is within a couple pts or Dean in the SUSA poll. Both numbers are within the margin of error.

Here, however, from the Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby tracking poll, are some other results that point to a favorable outcome for John Kerry:

As you can see, Kerry is the leading candidate amongst undecided voters who lean towards a particular candidate. Edwards is right up there with him. Kerry also polls fantastically on second-choices, which could impact votes in some precincts.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3936832 /

...who would be your second choice?

Kerry 25%

Dean 17%

Edwards 18%

Gephardt 14%

Clark 4%

Lieberman 2%

Kucinich 2%

Sharpton .2%

Someone else 1%

Not sure 16%

If you had to choose today, which candidate are you leaning toward? (Asked only of those who responded "Not sure" to the first question.)

Kerry 17%

Edwards 15%

Gephardt 10%

Clark 4%

Dean 3%

Not sure 50%

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bigwillq Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-17-04 12:33 PM
Response to Original message
1. Very interesting, although I think I stopped tracking polls
right now it's a toss up and I agree any of the 4 can win-even Edwards in my opinion.Is there a conspiracy against Dean?
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liberalpragmatist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-17-04 12:41 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Well, not from me, if that's what you were thinking
I'm a Kerry guy, but I like a lot abt Dean, and I'm awfully divided about whether his defeat by Kerry would be a good thing or a bad thing. I do wonder if a Kerry victory would mean a disunited Democratic base and an inability to win over youth and some nonvoters, which Dean has shown an ability to do.

As for Edwards, I think the best he can do is a close 2nd. I just don't think he has the organization to pull of a win, but for him, anything better than a 4th can be construed as a win.

The truth is that if I had to bet money on it, I'd probably still say Dean, if not for Iowa, then, narrowly, for the nomination. He has the resources and the support that he can survive a loss in Iowa, win narrowly in NH, then build a victory through the next phase of states, clinching the nod on super Tuesday.

But that doesn't mean I can't hope for Kerry!
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bigwillq Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-17-04 12:43 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. I wasn't blaming you
I'm still a Dean supporter but still have my doubts. I think the media has a lot to do with people's doubts about Dean
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lancdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-17-04 12:46 PM
Response to Reply #1
4. There's no more a conspiracy against Dean than there is against
Edited on Sat Jan-17-04 12:49 PM by lancdem
Clark, Kerry or Gephardt. None of our candidates is entitled to the nomination. He'll have to earn it. Historically, the front-runner a year before the election often doesn't get the nomination.

Edit: If Dean can survive these surges by Kerry, Edwards and Clark in Iowa/N.H, then he'll be an even stronger candidate in the general election.
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Feanorcurufinwe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-17-04 12:46 PM
Response to Original message
5. This matches the results from the NH ARG poll
where Kerry has gained 17 pts among undeclared voters in the last week.
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threemindmile Donating Member (3 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-17-04 12:49 PM
Response to Original message
6. Very interesting
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blm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-17-04 12:52 PM
Response to Original message
7. The import here is that undecideds are more like the general public.
Kerry would do very well in a general election. Edwards, too, since he also has picked up much of the undecideds.

Kerry/Edwards was my pick for a ticket almost 3 years ago.

Maybe Dems threw them over too soon, just as Rove had hoped.
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sandnsea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-17-04 01:14 PM
Response to Original message
8. Also is the "viewed favorable" choice
Kerry, Favorable 40%, Somewhat favorable 39%

Edwards, 38%, 36%

Gephardt 34%, 41%

Dean 31%, 36%

This is going to be a very interesting finish.
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schultzee Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-17-04 01:17 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. John Kerry's speeches have been making excellent points, and I am
hoping that he is sincere, because what he is saying is resonating to me. If only we can get rid of Bush!
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sandnsea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-17-04 01:45 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. Oh man, count on it
He is sincere. In fact, I think he tones down some of his inner "vision" in order not to "wax poetic". I haven't found anything in what he says that conflicts with past votes or statements. He means exactly what he says. He has a wonderful vision for this country. He and Teresa are uniquely remarkable people and would bring a whole new "Renaissance" to the country and the world. I can't tell you how excited I would be for them to be in the White House.

I am a 46 year old married mom with a wildland firefighter son, nursing school daughter, and high school senior. Small business owner under pressure from the "Bush recovery", some college. Just a normal old American. In case you're interested in demographics.
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Feanorcurufinwe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-17-04 01:52 PM
Response to Reply #9
11. I support Kerry because I have been listening closely to him for 10 years-
ever since he inspired me with a speech on the Senate floor. Those 10 years of scrutiny have turned me into a passionate supporter.

John Kerry is sincere. He's devoted his life to serving this country.
He's a dyed-in the wool Massachussetts liberal who can win Republican votes by inspiring them.
He is a leader who can unite our country.

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