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Clark supporters: A Kerry win may be bad for the General

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jeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-17-04 12:41 AM
Original message
Clark supporters: A Kerry win may be bad for the General
Because Kerry will get a boost from a victory and that will hurt Clark in New Hampshire.

Clark has to win or come in a close second in New Hampshire to compete further on. A victory for Kerry in Iowa and a victory in NH (or a close second) will make Kerry the anti-Dean candidate.

My prediction - if Kerry wins Iowa and New Hampshire, Dean is done like dinner. And Lieberman will begin attacking Kerry without mercy on FOX news.
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Jerseycoa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-17-04 12:45 AM
Response to Original message
1. Kerry complicates things
I'd much rather be facing Dean in NH. But we fight hard and we win.

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Clark Can WIN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-17-04 12:47 AM
Response to Original message
2. May the best man win
I am a strong Clark supproter, but I would be proud to call either my President.
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jeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-17-04 12:50 AM
Response to Reply #2
4. I just think that many Clark supporters are pushing for Kerry
because they want to defeat Dean. But you may win the battle and lose the war - so to speak.

The smart money would be on Gephardt. Because Gephardt HAS to win. And winning won't do much for him.

But Kerry WILL get a bounce in New Hampshire if he wins in Iowa. And that means third place for Clark in that primary.

A bad Kerry loss means that Kerry will wither in New Hampshire and Clark will get a surge (of anti-Dean Kerry supporters).

You catch my drift?
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MoonRiver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-17-04 12:53 AM
Response to Reply #4
8. I'm not obsessed with Clark over Kerry. I like Kerry, more and more
actually. Clark is my absolute favorite, but Kerry would be an awesome candidate, especially if Wes joined the team as VP.
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LoneStarDem Donating Member (93 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-17-04 12:50 AM
Response to Original message
3. Yea
No doubt a hard-charging Kerry, coming off of an Iowa win, would be a serious threat to the General in NH, but it's hard to say what it would take to qualify as a "win" in Iowa, and what the long-term effect would be on the Clark campaign. I mean, just a few weeks ago, a third place finish in NH for Clark was the stuff dreams are made of, and second place was pie-in-the-sky. Caucuses are also strange animals, and history says that union support (as in boots on the frozen ground come caucus time) tend to help alot. And if it comes down to a three or four way split, which is looking very possible, it will all come down to media spin as to how much real effect it has on the voters in NH.
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isbister Donating Member (902 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-17-04 01:38 AM
Response to Reply #3
16. But
If Gephardt loses and drops out soon after... no telling where that support would go... they might be a little hostile towards Dean.
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necso Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-17-04 12:51 AM
Response to Original message
5. A Kerry win will be bad for the General.
Edited on Sat Jan-17-04 12:52 AM by necso
Clark can compete later on if he finishes 3rd in NH, but it hurts. Dean can take some big hits and still have a chance, but this would change the race no doubt.

I really believe that there is an "Anybody But Dean Or Clark" thing going on, and Kerry is riding it.

Clark and Dean people, we need to stop Kerry. NOW!

If we don't stop hacking on each other, we will all be sitting on the sidelines wondering what happened. We might as well start chanting: "Four more years".

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jeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-17-04 12:53 AM
Response to Reply #5
7. Best case scenerio for Clark:
Gephardt wins unconvincingly - say with 25%
Dean comes in second with 17%
Kerry comes in a close third with 16%
Edwards right behind with 15%
Clark gets a respectable 7 to 10% (without campaigning)
others the difference
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necso Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-17-04 01:10 AM
Response to Reply #7
10. I disagree.
The sooner it is a two man race (with Dean), the better for Clark. I want and expect Dean to win in Iowa. I want and expect him to win in NH with Clark (a very close) 2nd. (Oops flames coming.) Otherwise, Dean will be written off too early and too easily. His support is a lot stronger than that.

Only then, when the party is confronted with a clear choice between the two real fighters in the campaign, can we make the best choice (which I believe is Clark).

Dean supporters are due a straight up fight, and this back-Kerry-to-hurt-Dean stuff (which may or may not be going on) will backfire.

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jeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-17-04 01:14 AM
Response to Reply #10
11. "backing Kerry" hurts Clark - not Dean
Because regardless of how Kerry does in Iowa, Dean will still beat him in New Hampshire.

The point is that Kerry will almost certainly finish second to Dean - and Clark will languish in third.

Also, the victory may allow Kerry to survive the embarrassment of losing New Hampshire, thereby keeping his candidacy alive.

If Kerry was out of the picture it would benefit Clark more than Dean.
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necso Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-17-04 01:38 AM
Response to Reply #11
15. Again I disagree.
There are a great number of people in the Party who are opposed to Dean. There are also many people suspicious of Clark's recent conversion. There is a very real chance that Kerry could arise as the anti-Dean (an anti-Dean who does not have the same suspicions attached to him as Clark). In this position Kerry would erode Clark's support (sorry, General) but could very well emerge with majority numbers. I think that achieving this level of support will be very hard for Clark (particularly with Edwards in the background).

A Clark-Dean fight I think is much more balanced than a Dean-ABDOC fight.

In short, Kerry falling out helps Clark more than Dean, but Clark getting marginalized helps Kerry a whole lot more than Dean.

I say again to those Clark supporters who wish Dean crushed early (and vice versa) --- careful what you wish for --- you will end up getting Kerry.

Look I have nothing against Kerry, but with him I expect just a sadder repeat of 2000. At least with Dean we would get fireworks.

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isbister Donating Member (902 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-17-04 01:47 AM
Response to Reply #5
17. Re: Clark and Dean people, we need to stop Kerry. NOW!
Hello. We need to stop bush NOW!

As for this filtering out process we're going through... it is possible that an intelligent, well-rounded, experienced Democratic candidate could do very well against the cue card reading misleader in the general election.

I'm not saying to abandon your candidate but I am saying that maybe it is time to consider that.

Anybody but bush.
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necso Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-17-04 02:23 AM
Response to Reply #17
22. Actually,
It is about stopping * in the fall. How is it possible do this sooner?

How to best structure the primary struggle so as to select the best candidate is a legitimate question for any candidate's supporters.

My point is that Dean and Clark supporters have a common, immediate interest, regardless of whether or not they see it. Moreover, I think that Clark and Dean supporters are closer philosophically than they realize. I got to be a Clark supporter long before Dean was looking like a lock. More and more I grow to respect Dean's supporters and see a kindred spirit in them. And I hope that Dean supporters would grow the same way.

I am not making Kerry out to be some evil. If he was the only candidate who could beat *, I would support him now.

I think that if the nomination falls to some party regular, that we will lose and if either Dean or Clark falters then the natural place for their supporters to go is to the other candidate (a recent realization).

Not just any decent, intelligent, heroic and dedicated person (like Kerry) can win in the fall, so excuse me if I suggest stopping one candidate or another. I mean no disrespect, at least not to any Democrat (well, Zell Miller I don't know).

Last and not least, I am sick to the death of attacks on Dean and I sympathize with Dean supporters. If I have crossed the line myself in the past, I apologize. Let's drop all the indirection and foulness and just fight straight up. Anything else is not helping our candidates. Don't wait too long to recognize this.
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mikehiggins Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-17-04 12:53 AM
Response to Original message
6. Don't fall for the expectations game
Edited on Sat Jan-17-04 12:55 AM by mikehiggins
Clark has been in this race for four months. If he comes in fourth it will be an accomplishment. Third will be a sterling achievement. Second will be a miracle.

Win? Are you kidding? Next week about ten zillion Dean supporters are going to flood the state of New Hampshire. Every primary voter will have two or three Dean campaign workers of their very own to shovel their walks, walk their dogs, run errands, whatever they can do to get a vote.

Add the Kerry folks and the Gephardt folks and the Edwards folks (he's the real danger, by the way) and both Lieberman supporters and what are we going to do?

Can't you just see it? It'll be like the Alamo with Mike Moore in a raccoon cap playing Dan'l Boone and Madonna playing Travis. It'll be great!

If we win, I fully expect the earth to split open and the anti-Christ to rise up from the fiery pits of hell to eat Bill O'Rielly!

It's enough to make a radio guy mainline Oxycontin!

And its way past my bedtime.

Goodnight, Mrs. Calabash, and all those ships at sea!


Edit to insert Dean (told you it was past my bedtime)
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Momof1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-17-04 12:56 AM
Response to Original message
9. My opinion doesn't matter much because my primary isn't till May
but between Dean/Clark I am really leaning towards Clark. I think he is our only hope. They can spin someones political record anyway they want. They convinced S.C. that McCain was for Breast Cancer. Clark doesn't have a record of voting on things. They will strangle anyone with a voting record. What could they strangle Clark with? For being a republican and stealing 1/2 their base. I don't know. That is just my .02 cents
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saltpoint Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-17-04 01:25 AM
Response to Original message
12. I don't think a Kerry win will be bad --
-- for the General. I think a Democratic nominee with the brains of either one of them will be VERY bad for George Bush.

If I were George Bush -- god forbid -- I would drop out now. The Democratic candidates are going to defeat him on issues and on compassion.

If anyone here runs a moving van company, it's not too early to send a brochure to the White House. And if anybody sees George and Laura at the grocery store, remind them to pick up their address-change cards at the post office.
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Tatiana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-17-04 01:30 AM
Response to Original message
13. A Kerry win will be bad for Dean.
If Clark comes in a solid and clear second, Clark still gains positive momentum. He's not expected to win. Dean, as the frontrunner, is. Kerry isn't a threat to win any of the southern primaries. Those will come down to Dean-Clark-Edwards.
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jeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-17-04 01:33 AM
Response to Reply #13
14. Tatiana that is my point
Clark is currently in second. Kerry in third. If Kerry wins Iowa and gets a bump - he will move into second and Clark into third.

Or if he wins NH, Dean will finish second.

You see? Either way, Clark finishes third.
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isbister Donating Member (902 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-17-04 01:52 AM
Response to Reply #14
18. Polls are polls and I'm not a big fan but
Dean's been dropping in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Dean could finish third in NH. Depending on the bounce, and what ever little tidbit the corporate media comes out with any of the candidates...they could be 1, 2, 3 in New Hampshire in any combination.

It'll be interesting to see what happens to Clark's numbers when he rejoins the election.

Oh, yeah, Edwards could possibly sneak in somewhere, too.
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Tatiana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-17-04 02:05 AM
Response to Reply #14
19. I don't believe a win in Iowa guarantees Kerry second.
I think Clark is solidly in second in NH, and I think the real story there is whether or not Clark has the power to actually win the thing.

I think a Kerry win in Iowa only hurts Dean. But even then, the victory will probably be short-lived. Look at what's up next. The Feb. 3rd primaries. Let's see:

Arizona - Clark the likely winner
Delaware - Dean, maybe Kerry gets second
Missouri - Dean
North Dakota - Dean, maybe Clark gets second
Oklahoma - Clark (he's polling extremely well here)
South Carolina - Dean/Clark/Edwards (tossup)

Not a lot of potential for momentum for Kerry. Loads of potential for Dean, some potential for Clark.
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Kathleen04 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-17-04 02:06 AM
Response to Original message
20. If Kerry wins Iowa and NH...
or if Dean wins Iowa and NH..I still think that General Clark enters the equation on February 3rd.
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tameszu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-17-04 02:17 AM
Response to Original message
21. A Kerry win in IA is VERY, VERY bad for Clark
Even a Kerry 2nd is quite bad for us. Think about where the supporters who led to the General's push into 2nd place came from--they came mostly from Kerry. And they will return if Kerry shows signs of a competent campaign.

In either case, unless Kerry's win over Dean in NH is really crushing, Clark will be wounded by a 3rd in NH and Dean will then likely proceed to crush Kerry in the SW and outspend Kerry March 2 and mostly win.

This is why if you are a Clark supporter in IA, please, please, please, realign to GEPHARDT if your caucus preference group doesn't hit 15%. I cannot underemphasize the importance of ensuring that Kerry doesn't place well in IA.

Kerry is a good man, but he has weakened himself so much with his poor campaigning that he is unlikely to win the primary and even less likely to beat Bush--he was polling below CMB in some Southern states (certainly SC) before she dropped out.
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