I want to urge people here not to overreact to leaked exit polls on Tues.

[bluestateguy]

No doubt the first exit polls are going to leak to the internet mid-day on Tuesday, first to Drudge and the blogs and here, and then perhaps even to the talk radio shows. I disapprove of this, but I don't think it can be prevented. So I'd like to urge people here at DU not to overreact to the leaked exit polls. For starters, you can't even be certain that the leaks are even true, or that they contain complete data. Much of these leaks from those manly "annonymous sources", who don't have the balls to go on the record. In any event, whatever the leaks say, I hope there are not a bunch of either deafeatist or overconfident posts here on Tuesday.

[The_Casual_Observer]

1. So far the exit polls look pretty nice.

And they seem to be fairly reliable. I will go with them if it looks like a Kerry landslide.

[Sufi Marmot]

2. Exit poll bias?

Good point about not overreacting to exit polls. Which direction, if any, might the exit polls be biased towards? Will there be more people pleased to assert that they voted against Bush - that is, will angry Dems/liberals be more likely to answer who they voted for than GOPers (skewing the poll in the Democrats favor) ? Or will there be more people who secretly vote for Kerry but report that they voted Bush (skewing the poll towards the GOP) ?

-SM

[MI Cherie]

3. I thought exit polls were over with

Since only 49 out of 50 were accurate in 2000.

:shrug:

[blackcat77]

5. ALL of them were accurate

But in Bush's Banana Republic, the person counting the votes matters more than the ones casting the votes.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

4. DU OVERREACT???!!!

No way.

[genius]

6. Thank you. Exit polls cost us the election of 1980.

THe polling is now being done to frighten us away. Don't let it work.

[eriffle]

7. Ponder this

Democratic turnout in early voting has been high. Higher than Republican turnouts in most states. Republicans will have a decent turnout, they always do, and if we've already voted, only the republicans will be at the polls on nov. 2. Exit polls are actually someone standing outside the polling place with a clipboard, and our early votes don't go into that. So, if exit polls are leaked (which after 2000 the mainstream media I believe has vowed against it until all polls have closed in that state) they won't reflect the votes.