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unblock Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-31-04 09:49 PM
Original message
SENATE prediction:
democrats will control the senate despite being technically the minority party:

50 republicans
49 democrats
1 independent

with jeffords caucussing with the democrats, it's 50-50.
vice-president edwards will cast the tie-breaker, giving the democrats control.

not pretty, but any landing you can walk away from is a good one.
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FARAFIELD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-31-04 09:52 PM
Response to Original message
1. remember if we win though
Kerry will have to resign his seat in January so until the special election the Repukes would be 50-49. Now we could win all the tossups and upset in KY and we would have the majority
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unblock Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-31-04 09:55 PM
Response to Reply #1
7. i'm giving that seat to the republicans as part of my prediction.
it is an unfortunate consequence of running not one, but TWO senators for the executive ticket, that those seats are lost with any victory.

this is one key reason why shrewd strategists prefer to run governors instead.
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PROGRESSIVE1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-31-04 09:52 PM
Response to Original message
2. 51 Democrats/49 Rethuglicans
That 51 Democratic number includes Jeffords who caucuses with us.
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SensibleCenterist Donating Member (302 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-31-04 09:52 PM
Response to Original message
3. Am I the only one that remembers this?
I remember when Daschle moved from Senate Minority Leader to Majority Leader. It could have been a coincidence, but suddenly California's rolling blackout problem stopped. Somebody realized they couldn't block all congressional investigations anymore.
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GainesT1958 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-31-04 09:53 PM
Response to Original message
4. If it comes down to that, I'll amend your prediction:
Chafee and Snowe will join Jeffords as Independents, and also to caucus with Democrats--thus giving Kerry an outright working majority in the Senate--and a clear shot to appoint Supreme COurt justices worthy of the highest bench in the land! :D

:kick:

B-)
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GOPNotForMe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-31-04 09:53 PM
Response to Original message
5. Edwards will have to bring a sleeping bag to the Senate if that's the case
Edited on Sun Oct-31-04 09:54 PM by GOPNotForMe
Because he's going to be there a long time breaking ties! How dramatic!
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Nite Owl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-31-04 09:54 PM
Response to Original message
6. I'd be very happy with that for now
and in '06 we can add. Hopefully there will be some R's that now cross over and vote with us like Chafee and Snow.
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Carolab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-31-04 09:58 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. They will if
they want a future!
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Daisey Mae Donating Member (654 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-31-04 10:03 PM
Response to Original message
9. SENATE 50 50 + Edwards and President Kerry a winning
situation.... I say KERRY BY A LANDSLIDE........
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iwantmycountryback Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-31-04 10:04 PM
Response to Original message
10. I'd definitely take that
Any majority no matter how small is a good majority. Here's what I think will go down

Alaska-Knowles wins, D+1
Colorado-Salazar wins, D+1
Florida-Castor wins, D+1
Georgia-Majette loses, D-1
Illinois-Obama wins,D+1 (close one too lol)
Kentucky-I HOPE LIKE HELL DR.DAN PULLS IT OUT, but I'll be conservative and give it to Bunning. I think Mongiardo could still win though. D-1
Louisiana-Vitter won't get 50%, we'll have to wait on this one
North Carolina-Bowles wins +1 Really hope he pulls this one out.
Oklahoma-Carson loses D-1 Carson could still win this but it doesn't look that great for him right now.
South Carolina-Unfortunately that pyscho Demint looks like he will win D-1
South Dakota-This is really fucking close. D+1 Come on Tommy win this one for the Dems

Those are the close/open ones. That leaves Dems gaining 3, Rethugs gaining 2. I'm not even counting Louisiana. Man this is too late to be doing math. Of the 23 remaining races that aren't close, Dems will be keeping 13 seats and Repubs will be keeping 10.
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Thrill Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-31-04 10:07 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. Bowles wins by
4-6 points
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Catch22Dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-31-04 10:10 PM
Response to Reply #10
13. Carson wins
I'd bet on it.
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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-31-04 10:08 PM
Response to Original message
12. Well, we won the big senate races in the last presidential year
I think it was +5 in 2000. Of course, those were friendlier states -- Michigan, Wahington, New Jersey, New York, Florida, Missouri. I know I'm forgetting at least a couple.

This year too many deep red road games to expect a sweep. I'm just hoping we break even.
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carpetbagger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-31-04 10:20 PM
Response to Original message
14. I think it's 50-50 as well.
We gain: AK, CO, IL,
We hold: FL, NC, SC, SD
They gain: LA
They hold: PA, KY, OK, GA (yes, it goes here)

That's a two seat shift from 51+Zell/47+Jeffords.

None of the moderates will bolt under a democratic president.
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