Pendulum swings to Kerry landslide

[sushi]

"Forget all the 'too close to call' analysis, says Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras, the US election will be a Kerry landslide."

He predicted before that it will be 327EV for Kerry and 211EV for Bush.

"Subject to a quite minor revision, that remains my forecast."

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,11247939%5E2703,00.html

Edit: typing error

[R3dD0g]

1. WTF is a 'psephologist'? n/t

[Caution]

3. psephologist

psephologist

n : a sociologist who studies election trends

[sushi]

12. Yes

and he (Malcolm Mackerras) teaches US politics at the Australian Defence Force Academy.

[mcg]

14. From Greek psephos + logy

Greek psephos, pebble, ballot (from the ancient Greeks' use of pebbles for voting) + -logy

[TruthIsAll]

2. Sounds just about right to me...

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

4. I think he's right

folks who have never voted before or haven't voted in a long time have registered, and they aren't voting Bush. Even here in Arkansas, I have heard more pro-Kerry voices than pro-Bush ones. In fact, there's only one person I know who is pro-Bush, and she's so hate filled that there's no getting through to her.

[sushi]

5. I think you're right

Voting is the key. If only the world could vote!

[harpo]

6. I think he's being a bit conservative...chimp won't break 200

[sushi]

9. Whatever!

As long as Kerry wins. I'm excited for you and for us outside the US. :)

[Randi_Listener]

7. Fuck the Chimp

He won't break 210. He'll be eating shit in about 50 hours.

[nadinbrzezinski]

8. I will add one more thing

this feels like 1800 all over again,

Anybody knows what happend in 1800? It was so dramatic, in fact, that it was called the Second American Revoution, and yes Jefferson WON in a landslide.

Welcome to the Revolution folks

[mindwalker_i]

10. Buying stock

Maybe it's time to buy stock in shredders - they've only got until January to destroy Cheney's energy task force docs, maps of Iraqi oild fields, etc.

-mwalker

[pacalo]

16. LOL!

Only thing about the energy documents is that the Supreme Court ruled they can't be made public, anyway. :(

[PROGRESSIVE1]

11. I hope he's right.

:kick:

[sushi]

15. So do I!

Let's hope some voters don't stay home because of bad weather, etc.

[Nicholas_J]

13. There are a lot of factor being left out of these polls

What there were something like 20 million new voters registered this time. All indictions are that Democrats by far made up the majority og those voters. If onlt half these turn out, thats an additional ten million votes, These voters are not being polled. If only half vote, and only ten percent more democrats were registered than Republicans, this gives Kerry and advantege of 1 million new voters. Other factors, Kerry has reversed the Muslim Support for Bush in 2000. Bush got 80 percent of the Muslim vote in 2000, while right now 80 percent of Muslims have switced over to support Kerry. The Muslim popullation in the United States is now at the point that it either equal or exceeds the Jewish population in the country. Again, if only one in 7 Muslims votes, this kickds an additional million votesto Kerry, that went to Bush in 2000.Bush has lost some of the Cuban vote to Kerry. Acccoring to a Miami Herald poll, only 5 percent, but accoring to a Hispanic Poll taken in late September, 16 percent.
However Bush's support among Hispanics is only around 22 percent nationally, in Miami Dade County, due to heavy Cuban population, 33 percent. Overall, Bush's losses in voter support among groups who supported him in 2000 rather greatly exceeds Kerry's five percent loss among Jewish voters as compared to Gore's support among Jews in 2000. There are a large number of factors that havenot been considered in polls that have this election too close to tell.

[cliss]

17. I agree.

I just posted a thread where I believe the election will be settled on late Tuesday night. There won't be any lingering questions as to who won. We'll know. It'll be Kerry in a landslide.

I'm willing to bet $100.00 on it.

[donheld]

18. Sweet dreams are made of this

who am i to disagree:bounce::bounce: