HardBall: Dean Win Solid. Can Take Voters to Caucus. Kerry People Can’t

[WiseMen]

Panel on HardBall tonight argued that Kerry motivational effort can’t compete with the Dean organizations solid support-base that already have tickers to the Party caucus and have booked their ride. Kerry doesn’t have the names phone numbers and addresses, much less car rides for his supporters. Sounds as if the challenge of Kerry winning Iowa is like Gore trying to win Florida – everything is in the way.

I agree that Dean’s and Gephart’s massive organizations could totally swamp the the grass-roots interest in Kerry. From what I have heard, Kerry's troops are experienced but far fewer in numbers than those fielded by Dean and Gephart.

But the challenge facing Kerry in Iowa is even more formidable. There are 2 additional barriers to a Kerry victory:

1. The Big-Name political and movie-star endorsers of Dean have a great deal at stake in a Dean win. It is reasonable that they should pull out of all the stops to attract more media presence to the Dean "movement" and to re-energize Dean voters. Dean’s folks may not only arrive at caucus in chauffeured convenience but arrive excited.

2. The Corporate Media have much invested in the current "Official Stories" re. Dean and Clark. The script is that Dean sweeps Iowa and NH backed by a swath of endorsements from the Gore-wing and races into withering fire from shadowy forces from the Clinton-wing. There is no accepted script regarding Kerry and if you pay attention you will notice that Kerry is still relatively ignored. A lot of Kerry coverage this weekend could help bring out the vote, but it is not likely to happen.

So much for “we the people.”

[kerry-is-my-prez]

1. Dean is on the cover of People and some other magazine - after 4 other

covers. Ya can't compete with that....

[WiseMen]

44. It is near impossible, so many stake-holders in Dean Story. Kerry is

fighting to the end though.

[KaraokeKarlton]

2. So much for "we the people"?

Who do you think is chauffering all those Iowa caucus goers? Who do you think is out canvassing in the thousands drumming up support for their candidate? The PEOPLE who happen to support Dean. These people bought their own airline tickets to go to Iowa to help get out the vote for Dean. To act like Kerry is being slighted in this is ridiculous. If Kerry had the same level of grassroots support that Dean has he would have volunteers on the ground willing to sacrifice to get out the vote for him.

[KC21304]

3. Did we see the same Hardball ?

Are you saying that your headline was the consensus ? Don't think so. The embed with Dean was only repeating what the Dean campaign was saying. Mind repeating what Zogby said ?

[WiseMen]

7. No. This was the HB analysts panel. Assesment of the Iowa caucus expert

[Exgeneral]

4. I hear about Clinton all the time

but my local Clark group never mentions his name.

Where's all the love I keep hearing about?
Shouldn't Big Dog be into the swing of things by now? Or Hillary?

[Sensitivity]

56. Clinton does not want to endorse before the nomination.

[LuminousX]

5. WE the people

Who in heck do you think those 3,000+ people going to Iowa to help in the organization efforts are? Who in heck are contributing to Dean's campaign?

[mzmolly]

6. Aren't *people* the ones that vote?

If Kerry is ahead in the polls, I imagine *people* were reached via telephone?

It's a 4 way tie, we won't know until Tuesday am.

[WiseMen]

12. Not what the HardBall Expert panel said. Outside influence easily applied

to affect which voters gets to the caucus. Basically you can do what the republicans did in Florida re minority counties many times over -- if you have the organization and resources to do it.

An insurgent candidate like Kerry has to have an overwhelming lead in public opinion in order to win.

[LuminousX]

20. Calling Kerry an insurgent is hilarious

[mitchum]

52. No more hilarious than calling Dean a liberal

[LuminousX]

54. Did I ever call Dean a liberal? No.

Dean isn't a liberal and Kerry is no insurgent.

[Eloriel]

22. Oh, good grief

Outside influence easily applied"
to affect which voters gets to the caucus. Basically you can do what the republicans did in Florida re minority counties many times over -- if you have the organization and resources to do it.

Taking voters to the polls is a time-honored tradition in America. It's been done for many, many, many years. To try to pretend that there will be any arm-twisting going on is ridiculous.

Dean is protecting his interests by trying to make sure his supporters GET there. These are people who have already committed (probably at least to him as 2nd choice).

The volunteers that are in Iowa are by no means well-trained. They're not going to be very effective at bullying their riders into supporting Dean -- and, as already pointed out -- these are already pre-identified Dean supporters.

An insurgent candidate like Kerry has to have an overwhelming lead in public opinion in order to win.

Uh, isn't that the name of the game -- whoever has the most supporters wins?

Dean has worked damned hard for every bit of support and other resources he has -- against the odds, against conventional wisdom, against the DLC, against the Clintonistas, against the RNC, against the pundits, against the media (esp. lately) -- and you BEGRUDGE him what he's garnered for himself, and dare to imply it's somehow UNFAIR?

Shaking my head in utter disbelief.

[stickdog]

38. Dean's campaign is a true grassroots insurgency.

Kerry's campaign is 98% astroturf.

[KaraokeKarlton]

8. Apparently Dean supporters aren't really people now

at least not to those who dislike Dean so much. :shrug:

[Lobo_13]

10. just like

Dean's 15 million quarter wasn't real money. According to John Kerry anyway.

[Cheswick2.0]

48. I guess the only real money is when you mortgage your house

lol

[janx]

11. That's doubly unfortunate because there are DUers who

have been working in Iowa in extreme weather and/or who are on their way to Iowa now.

[WiseMen]

15. Don't do the StrawMan thing, Please. You know that is not the point.

Expert panel was saying that in a caucus system public preference in not determinative if some candidates have more control of the
political organization.

[KaraokeKarlton]

19. If people are passionate enough about Kerry

his supporters will make sure they get to caucus for him.

Frankly, I don't think the polls showing him ahead of Dean are accurate. I think Kerry stands a chance to take second, but I don't believe anyone can touch Dean in either Iowa or NH. Dean supporters are VERY active in the campaign. I think the drop of Dean in the polls is from nothing more than his supporters being out doing volunteer work for the campaign trying to ensure a victory in Iowa instead of home to answer the phone. That's not saying that Kerry hasn't worked hard and made a great comeback in Iowa, because he has. But realistically, I don't think it's anywhere near enough to compete with Dean. Gephardt? Yes, Kerry can most definitely beat Gephardt in Iowa.

[WiseMen]

42. If that is the case, why does Dean have door to door services for supporte

[Cheswick2.0]

47. when did you ever work in a campaign that did not do door to door

transport?

[Eloriel]

26. And they went on to say that it's designed that way -- for

party insiders to determine the winner. At least that's the part I saw. (IOW, Dean was right -- and the guy, Roger Simon I think it was, said precisely that -- when he said in the 90s that the Iowa Caucus was dominated by special interests.)

So your beef is with the Iowa Democratic Party.

[stickdog]

39. That is true. So why has Kerry put all his eggs in the Iowa basket?

I mean, did this inherent disadvantage just occur to both you and he today?

[mitchum]

53. Oh, they're people...

[NewHampster]

13. Well said LuminousX

My never before political wife is upstairs working her butt off for Dean because a third of the local volunteers headed to Iowa. And we live in New Hampshire where Gov. Richards will be this weekend.

Dean has excited us because of his anger, his brutal honesty, his eyes that never waver when he listens to voters and the plain simple fact that he can and will stand up to the Karl Rove lying machine.

by the way, the Dean system is real. I see the endless printouts and the checkmarks in pencil. Deaners know the voters, know who needs a ride. Know who has the 4x4s if it snows and we will get out the vote.

My 2bits George the Second .org

[janx]

25. What a thoughtful post! Live free or die!

And a very warm welcome to DU! Glad to see you here, and the very best to your wife--

:hi:

[NewHampster]

34. thanks

:)

[blm]

16. People who believed he was antiwar.

Some who believe Kerry is a "corrupt Washington insider" and that the others are all "Bushlite" because they were TOLD so.

[LuminousX]

31. I'm not agreeing, but welcome to politics. It is a game of perception.

[Raya]

49. It is this subtle corruption of the Dean attacks on Kerry that turned me

off.

[LuminousX]

50. Ever see sausage or a law get made?

[Eloriel]

21. Apparently, we're not the right people

:shrug:

[Sensitivity]

51. Dean put in the work to have this edge

[Lobo_13]

9. That's a real problem for Kerry

He may have the money for ads, but he doesn't have the organization to drive them out to caucus.

It's like herding cats, the only way to do it is with lots of help.

[aquart]

14. "Official stories"?

I have a real problem with painting Dean and Clark as corporate media choices.

I may not agree with the choice that will be made in Iowa, but I do believe that Iowa Democrats have hearts and brains and good common sense. That they come out in this awful winter and fight for democracy argues that they understand very well what's at stake and will not choose lightly.

Or let others choose for them.

[KaraokeKarlton]

17. Something VERY important for people to consider if they worry Dean can't

beat Bush.

The INCREDIBLE organization of the Dean campaign just during the primary race doesn't even scratch the surface of what this campaign can do when the whole party joins Dean. The massive amount of footsoldiers available under the top notch organizational ability of the Dean campaign will prevent another Florida from happening. Bush will be less likely to be able to cheat because there will be people on the ground in every polling place to watch like hawk and report back the second any problems arise. Look how quick Dean's camp responds to things. Folks, the Democrats NEED that to beat Bush and Dean's camp is the ONLY one who has it. Those are the facts, and whether you like Dean or not, there is no denying that his campaign is stronger and more organized than anything we've ever seen before. The polls don't show this because these are NOT "liberal activists". These are people who never were involved before and many who didn't even care enough to vote. There is NO WAY Bush can compete against this kind of power and organization...NONE.

[LuminousX]

29. Dean's model

also will meld well with varying campaigning styles. There is a central campaign for those who work best with direct orders and there is the grassroots for those who just want to take the ball and run with it.

[ozone_man]

18. Dean is the grass roots candidate not Kerry.

I thought that would be clear by now. His campaign is funded by less than $100 per contribution. Where does Kerry get his money from besides himself? A lot of lawyers and lobbyists I think.

But according to the Center for Responsive Politics (search), nearly all of Edwards’ top 20 donors are prominent law and lobbying firms, from whom he has raised more than $7.4 million so far this election cycle.

During that same time, Kerry raised $3.3 million from this group, Gephardt just over $2 million and Lieberman about $1.5 million.

Bush, whose total contributions are more than triple those of his closest fund-raising rival, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, has raised $6.2 million so far from lobbyists and lawyers. Dean, who has raised more than $25 million to date toward his campaign, took in less than $1 million from lawyers and law firms. Contributions from lobbyists don't register among Dean's top 20 industry donors.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,101499,00.html

[WiseMen]

23. You don't describe grass roots. Grass Roots would not require out-state

armies to effect the result.

[Eloriel]

30. That doesn't even make sense

Of COURSE it's grassroots. What else would you call it?

[WiseMen]

35. Its a type of anti-establishment "insurgency." Grass-roots implies

from the ground. If the Iowa campaign was truly grass-roots then you would have local community folk just going to caucus without big Union or out-of-town organizers influencing the process.

[stickdog]

40. Grassroots is grassroots. Dean has many more Iowa volunteers

than any other campaign AS WELL as highly motivated national troops.

Too bad John Kerry didn't see the train coming until it clobbered him, huh?

[LuminousX]

32. Uhhh... :dumbfounded:

[Cheswick2.0]

46. So, the people who have come from out of state to support Kerry

should go home?

Don't blame Dean because Kerry's out of state grassroots are a tiny patch of turf.

[LuminousX]

55. You do realize Dean's supporters in Iowa have to caucus...

the 3,000+ out of state volunteers are to provide transportation, information, put out fresh donuts, etc. while Dean's Iowan supporters are in the actual caucus doing the caucus thing.

[dajabr]

24. Dean's army of storm chasers launch assault for presidency

Suzanne Goldenberg
Saturday January 17, 2004
The Guardian

Carol Haas's entry into American politics began on the cold dawn of an Ohio morning, with the last of her run of midnight nursing shifts. She got off work and into a waiting car, riding 10 hours across the rolling plains of the midwest before she got a chance to sleep - hungry, on a bunk bed, surrounded by 11 male strangers, in a cabin with no indoor plumbing - at a girl scout camp 20 miles from town.

Ms Haas, a 55-year-old nurse, is beaming. She is kneeling on a floor, stuffing envelopes for Howard Dean in the run-up to the first popular challenge of the eight contenders for the Democratic presidential nomination, which takes place in Iowa on Monday.

She is going to spend three days on envelope duty - or knocking on the doors of strangers asking them to come out to vote Dean - before going straight back to her job in Akron, Ohio.

She can barely contain her admiration for Mr Dean. "He brought the power to the people," she says.

More: http://www.guardian.co.uk/uselections2004/story/0,13918,1125309,00.html

As always, People Powered...

[displacedyankeedem]

27. Kerry does have a GOTV machine

The vets he's brought in are literally his foot soldiers while, the field commander who's running the operation is a guy named Michael Whouley, the same guy who enabled Gore to beat back Bill Bradley's challenge in 2000.

Don't underestimate Kerry, he's got the big MO behind him as does Edwards.

[ACPS65]

28. Hardball is the equivalent of Mad magazine

.

[MIMStigator]

33. we'll know soon enuff

eh?

[stickdog]

36. Dean's organization IS grassroots & bottom up. In contrast,

Kerry's campaign is heavily funded astroturf.

[batesboys]

41. Veterans and firefighters

and ordinary people like me are astroturf?

[stickdog]

43. If Kerry had all the veterans andf firefighters in Iowa working for him,

wouldn't his organization be far superior to both Dean's & Gephardt's.

[mikehiggins]

37. Arrrggghhh! Done in by shadowy Clinton forces!

This has to be the single funniest line I've seen so far regarding the campaign.

The Big Dog is known for hiding in the shadows, lurking like some icon of evil in the darkness...

Nyahahahahahahahahahahahahaahahahah

[Cheswick2.0]

45. Aren't the volunteers who have gone to Iowa for Dean "we the people"

They are the ones giving the Dean efforts and organization legs. Aren't they "we the people"? Dean has more people willing to get out and work for him, from inside and outside of the state. It's called popular support, but I guess if it is popular support for Dean it must be suspect.

[AP]

57. In the same sense that Pat Robertson and Jesse Jackson had 'we the people'

help them win Iowa.

[quaker bill]

58. When "we the people" caucus

"We the people" will win.

Soon the results will be clear.

A campaign is more than lovely speeches. It is more than endorsements. It is getting your supporters out to caucus or vote.

People worked their hearts out for Gore in Fla in 2000. Turnout made a 5 percent polling deficit the day before turn into a 36 day recount challenge. We just ran out of gas a bit short of the goal line.

Just a few thousand more and we would mostly be working to re-elect Al right now.

[John_H]

59. What's new about Bush shill Tweety pushing Dean?

He's been doing it for months.