Donkey Rising: Democracy Corps: Kerry 48-47, Undecideds Lean Kerry 2:1

[StlMo]

Edited to add link

Donkey Rising: Democracy Corps: Kerry 48-47;
Kerry Is Winning Key Battleground States;
Undecided Voters Lean Kerry 2:1


In fact, the public polls in 2004 show a remarkably stable and dead-locked race, with Bush stuck somewhere between 47 and 48 percent, short of what an incumbent should have to secure re- election.

The Democracy Corps has a new poll, conducted Friday night and Saturday morning. While the full survey will be completed on Sunday, the half-sample of 500 interviews conducted after the release of the Bin Laden tape, show the race unchanged compared to a survey completed Thursday night. The partial survey shows Kerry at 48 percent and Bush at 47 percent. Like the survey conducted before, it shows the two parties with equal numbers of party identifiers.

The Saturday respondents (250 interviews) were asked the following question: "I'm going to read you a pair of statements about the release of Bin Laden's videotape. Please tell me which one comes closer to your view.

-- It makes me think that George Bush took his eye off the ball in Afghanistan and diverted resources to Iraq.

-- It underscores the importance of George Bush's approach to the war on terrorism.

By 10 points (46 to 36 percent), voters were more likely to think that Bush took his eye off the ball. (These results will be updated when the full survey is completed on Sunday.)

...

The Democracy Corps combined polls as of Friday showed that the undecided (prior to being pushed to a preference) leaned toward the Democrats by two-to-one and favored a significant change in direction over continuing Bush’s direction by 58 to 29 percent, also two-to-one.

The tracking for the Kerry campaign, conducted for the whole battleground and in key battleground states at the end of the week, including Friday night, show Kerry with a clear and stable lead.

Bottom line, amidst the intensity of campaign’s final days, it is important to keep one’s eye on the stability and structure of this race, with Bush still short of what he needs to win.

...

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising

[batchdem04]

1. kick for the morning crew

damn Daylight Savings Time has me up too early :(

[tedoll78]

2. I'm so excited..

too excited to sleep. I can taste victory.. just barely.. it tastes so sweet.. like honey chicken wings.. yummy..

[StlMo]

3. Me too!

:kick:

[shawmut]

4. kick

:kick:

[Tansy_Gold]

5. Help me on this one --

I've often heard of "push" and "pull" polls but I don't know what they are.

However, it seems to me that the way the first question is worded leads the respondent into a specific, desired answer:

<snip>
The Saturday respondents (250 interviews) were asked the following question: "I'm going to read you a pair of statements about the release of Bin Laden's videotape. Please tell me which one comes closer to your view.

-- It makes me think that George Bush took his eye off the ball in Afghanistan and diverted resources to Iraq.

-- It underscores the importance of George Bush's approach to the war on terrorism.
<end snip, with my emphasis added>

I wonder how different the responses would have been if that statement had read: "It reminds me that Bin Laden is still out there and determined to attack the United States again." Or, if the two statements had been reversed in order.


Tansy Gold, playing devil's advocate because she hopes to learn something about "push" and "pull" polling