How I think turnout is the key to winning. (actual theory)

[LoZoccolo]

Over the past few months we've heard this idea that undecideds in polls break X% for the challenger, X being some number between 50% and 85%.

But I don't think it's really undecideds much at all who decide to vote for the challenger that way on election day. By necessity, the election results only measure voters, and these pre-election polls measure everyone. Now if 5-10% of everyone can't decide who to vote for, and 40-50% of people don't even vote, wouldn't you think that some if not almost all of the 5-10% of undecided voters in the polls get absorbed into the 40-50% of people not voting?

Instead, I don't think that in a close election it's really necessarily undecideds suddenly breaking for the challenger on election day that makes up this illusion that they did when you compare polls to election results; I think it's that people turn out more for the challenger, perhaps because they're more motivated.

And we're real motivated.

But as others have advocated, we should pretend as if we're 10% behind, and do that work over the next couple days to get that turnout we need.

[eaprez]

1. Its an old proven fact that the higher the turnout the more Dems win....

....which is why so much effort is being undertaken to supress the vote. The working class isn't the ones who vote --- the rich do --- this is why the Repubs tried for many years to prevent 'motor voter' registration.

[roseBudd]

3. The youth/minority/hip hop demo turnout is going to determine this

I am burning 50 CDs of the new Eminem song which is not yet released. I am giving copies to young Kerry supportes like VoteMob, Young Voter Alliance and anyone sporting lots of Kerry stickers on their car asking them to play the song in high foot traffic/hang out type areas. Also asking inner city CD stores to play it. Mosh is our anthem!

50 CDS and cases only costs $21.

I found the mp3 at http://www.stimulate-ltd.com /

Used cdex to convert the mp3 to a wav file and I'm handing out copies.

To the people up top, on the side and the middle,
Come together, let's all bomb and swamp just a little
Just let it gradually build, from the front to the back
All you can see is a sea of people, some white and some black
Don't matter what color, all that matters is we gathered together
To celebrate for the same cause, no matter the weather
If it rains let it rain, yea the wetter the better
They ain't gonna stop us, they can't, we're stronger now more then ever,
They tell us no we say yea, they tell us stop we say go,
Rebel with a rebel yell, raise hell we gonna let em know
Stomp, push up, mush, fuck Bush, until they bring our troops home come on just . . .

Come along, follow me as I lead through the darkness
As I provide just enough spark, that we need to proceed
Carry on, give me hope, give me strength,
Come with me, and I won't stear you wrong
Put your faith and your trust as I guide us through the fog
Till the light, at the end, of the tunnel, we gonna fight,
We gonna charge, we gonna stomp, we gonna march through the swamp
We gonna mosh through the marsh, take us right through the doors, come on

Imagine it pouring, it's raining down on us,
Mosh pits outside the oval office
Someone's trying to tell us something, maybe this is God just saying
we're responsible for this monster, this coward, that we have empowered
This is Bin Laden, look at his head nodding,
How could we allow something like this, Without pumping our fist
Now this is our, final hour
Let me be the voice, and your strength, and your choice
Let me simplify the rhyme, just to amplify the noise
Try to amplify the times it, and multiply it by six
Teen million people are equal of this high pitch
Maybe we can reach Al Quaida through my speech
Let the President answer on high anarchy
Strap him with AK-47, let him go
Fight his own war, let him impress daddy that way
No more blood for oil, we got our own battles to fight on our soil
No more psychological warfare to trick us to think that we ain't loyal
If we don't serve our own country we're patronizing a hero
Look in his eyes, it's all lies, the stars and stripes
They've been swiped, washed out and wiped,
And Replaced with his own face, mosh now or die
If I get sniped tonight you'll know why, because I told you to fight

So come along, follow me as I lead through the darkness
As I provide just enough spark, that we need to proceed
Carry on, give me hope, give me strength,
Come with me, and I won't stear you wrong
Put your faith and your trust as I guide us through the fog
Till the light, at the end, of the tunnel, we gonna fight,
We gonna charge, we gonna stomp, we gonna march through the swamp
We gonna mosh through the marsh, take us right through the doors


And as we proceed, to mosh through this desert storm, in these closing statements, if they should argue, let us beg to differ, as we set aside our differences, and assemble our own army, to disarm this weapon of mass destruction that we call our president, for the present, and mosh for the future of our next generation, to speak and be heard, Mr. President, Mr. Senator

[formernaderite]

5. My fear....

...is they don't show up. They certainly didn't show up for Dean, and he had the youth vote locked up. I live in a blue safe state...but even my youngest who's in high school, said they're so psyched about having the day off that most of the voting age kids will probably blow it off. My middle kid in college voted absentee...and is also not convinced they'll get off their apathetic butts to vote. Oh well.

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

2. Most polls only include "likely" voters

defined as someone who is registered to vote and who voted in the previous election.

The reason the polls are off this time around is all of the newly registered voters. Many, if not most of them registered specifically so they could vote against Bush (or that is the theory, anyway). They are almost certain to vote, yet they are not counted in the polls.

[On the Road]

4. Yes, It's Entirely Possible That the Two Effects are Being Confused

Rather than the undecideds breaking for the challenger, it's entirely possible that the undecideds stay home and the winning party has higher turnout at the polls. It would be impossible to tell the difference in the results without doing a followup on individual voters.

[LoZoccolo]

6. Also, this means that...

...we could actually overtake more than the undecided margin in the actual results!