I'm going out on a limb--the OBL tape will make NO difference

[spooky3]

Most people have already made up their minds and many have voted.

The undecideds have been given tons of information and if they haven't made their minds up yet, this tape isn't going to do it, because there is no substance in it that would contradict radically what we already knew.

People who support Bush will interpret the tape in a way that is favorable to him, and those who support Kerry will probably do the same for him.

Other events may matter between now and Tuesday, but this one won't.

[yardwork]

1. I agree with you

If anything, the OBL tape will hurt chimpy, because he's already on a down slide.

[darkism]

2. Yep.

Too little too late for this super-lame October "surprise."

[The Chronicler]

3. I don't see how this tape would help Bush with Independents/undecs

[democratreformed]

4. This is how many times the tape was mentioned during my phone

calls to voters tonight: NONE ZERO ZILCH. Not one single mention of OBL or the tape.

[knowbody0]

5. IMHO TMI

for us to wrap brains around
can this really be our nation?
100,000 dead iraqis, unguarded explosives, OBL invite to dialog
sleep deep friends-often dreams speak when stuff's too much

[drh]

6. OBL

If the OBL tape makes any difference at all, it will not be in the way the spin doctors are predicting. I predict that it could provide an adverse effect for Bush. If one can attempt to interpret OBL's objective, it may be a "Brer Rabbit in the Briar Patch" phenomena. OBL, in criticizing Bush, may want Americans to vote for Bush. What OBL forgets is that most of us are more intelligent that those who currently run this administration. Most Americans will see through OBL's ruse.

[goodwalt]

12. Welcome to DU!

Don't know that I agree with your analysis of Americans being smarter than that- after all, we DID almost elect W in 2000, but I seriously see it having no effect. Minds are already made up, and we are down to the turnout. Of that very small sliver of undecided voters that will both vote AND be influenced by this last message- the reminder that Osama Bin Forgotten is alive and well is just as likely to persuade them as the reverse psychology of attacking Bush.

[newyawker99]

24. Hi drhaupenthal!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[RummyTheDummy]

7. It comes down to what we've all been saying for four years

Turnout.

[gardenista]

8. It's an iron clad big-ass limb, because a bunch of us are out here with ya

This will change no votes, and may even scare a few of the more paranoid freeps into staying home for a few weeks.

[txindy]

9. If it helps, Ron Reagan agrees with us.

Tonight, on Buchanan's show on MSNBC, Reagan said (paraphrasing), "This won't change the election at all. Anyone who changes his vote based on this tape should be taken out back and hit in the head with a shovel." ROFL!! He said it and the "taken out back, etc." is nearly an exact quote. I was too busy spurting tea all over the rug trying to choke back my laughter when he said it to hear the words precisely. ;)

[spooky3]

18. Good one, Ron!

[Demi_Babe]

10. agreed

[Tamyrlin79]

11. You are probably right...generally

but it WILL affect somebody out there, who with al Qaqaa was questioning Bush again, even if just a little bit, and then has to face healthy nagging Osama, whom Bush has FAILED to catch. He's got Saddam, but Osama was the 2004 Re-election Ticket. Saddam behind bars is great and all, but Osama is the price. He was the test. The People wanted Osama's head. That's what they sent Bush out to find. In this quest he has failed. He has not delivered. He has had three years, a good majority of his term to catch him. Indeed, so little of Bush's term had passed when the people's mandate for Osama's head was given, that Bush argued that he should not be blamed for the security failure of 9/11. So, by his own standard, he's had plenty of time. Three years into our involvement in World War II, we were clearly winning the conflict. Now, three years into this one, we seem to be bogged down and losing. This is simply not acceptable, especially since the reason is the misadventure in Iraq that got him Saddam Hussein. But, while saddam's scalp is great and all, it is not what we, Bush's masters as the sovereigns of this country, asked him for after 9/11. This is a serious time, and it is time for focus, not foolishness. Bush has not accomplished the job. Rather, he spent his time and our money and lives on something else, not to mention lighting a Middle Eastern powder keg in the process. It is as if he comes back from the store with a lawnmower when what we sent him for was a gas grill. And he blew up the store while he was there. This is a violation of Bush's mandate as our public servant. Bush comes back to us now to renew his four-year contract to govern, but has not fulfilled its terms. Therefore, he must be fired and replaced with someone more qualified.

I think that the appearance of the Osama video makes this all the more clear and vivid to the American people.

[spooky3]

23. I should have clarified that it will not change the outcome of the

election in any significant way. Of course some individuals may be affected in one direction, and people can speculate about dozens of potential effects and reasons why. My point is that small individual effects in one direction will be offset by the tape's having the opposite effect on others.

[Bad Thoughts]

13. Might throw votes to Nader

That's my fear: some people on the far left will take the lesson that the nightmare will end if the US just retreats from the Middle East. All of the sudden Nader will look attractive.

Just my fear.

[high density]

14. I agree!

Tim Russert said a smart thing tonight and called it a "jump ball." I agree completely. Those voters who could be swayed by this video could also be swayed by the last yard sign they see on the way to the polls.

[cyr330]

15. I agree also. . .

The media keeps yipping and yapping about this "story", and I think it's just not going to fly. Our "liberal" journalists see a way they can keep their commander-in-thief in the WH, so they just won't leave it alone. Most people are going to see this for what it is--a fucking collosal, stupid waste of our time and intelligence.

[diamond14]

16. osama crapped all over bush*....it's ANOTHER bush* failure

and many many Americans were SHOCKED to see that osama is ALIVE AND WELL after so many LIES and innuendos from bush* and the bush* cabal....it bodes BAD for bush*.....there is absolutely NOTHING good for bush* in the re-appearance of America's most wanted criminal....

it makes a HUGE difference to actually see this murderer AGAIN....bush* worked real hard to eliminate OBL from his speeches, to close down Al Jazerra in Iraq, to imply repetitively that OBL was minimized and no longer a threat to us....and then BOOM, there is OBL THREATENING America !!!!




thanks to plastic_turkeys for the photo

[lady raven]

17. my mom saw it this way...

My mom has already voted via absentee. She's a registered Dem because her parents were, but I suspect that she votes Repub most of the time. she is very secretive about her votes, and that's fine.

When she saw the tape, she said that she was mad as H*** that OBL was alive and free to make that tape. I just nodded.

I suspect her thinking is that it's *'s fault he's free at all. If it has any effect, I suspect it will be an anti- * effect.

[Eurobabe]

19. i agree....sorry karl you're too late

[gollygee]

20. The only way they help bush is by deflecting attention

away from the missing explosives.

That isn't enough to save him.

I can't imagine many if any people changing their vote based upon this, and it might make as many people change their vote toward Kerry as toward Bush.

[exliontamer]

21. People see what they want to see in it

That tape is a mysterious thing... people watch it and their prejudices are refelcted straight back at them.

If you're a Dem, you see affirmation that Bush has failed.

If you're a Bushie, you see affirmation that it's time to add another layer of foil to your hat.

Independents?

I suppose it will just solidify whatever they were already inclined to believe by Tuesday anyway.

[AlinPA]

22. Cable "news" is pushing the tape story always saying it helps *.

They are trying their best to keep it out there.