Where do they have to finish in IA to stay alive?

[AP]

Edwards has the easiest bar to clear. He only needs to finish in the top four, and it looks like he'll do that.

Kerry just has to beat Dean, I think. A Kerry loss to Gep won't be seen as a problem. So, Kerry just needs to finish in 1-3 with Dean behind him.

I think Dean only needs to finish in first or second, and it doesn't really matter who he loses to. I think he might actually benefit from losing because he can use it to give himself a badly needed personality translplant before things get too out of hand.

Gep -- hmmm. He really needs to win it, but if he's within .5% of Dean, nobody will complain, but I can't see him going too farl, regardless. A win keeps him alive for a month. Anything else, and we're talking a maximum life span of two weeks.

Discuss.

[mastein]

1. Edwards needs to set up Super Tuesday

I agree with you on Gep, and think he (and kerry if he doesn't get that close in NH) are toast.

[AP]

5. The thing with Kerry, I think, is that, because Dean went after him so

long on IWR, people pair them up in their minds. So Kerry is really running against Dean. If he beats Dean it's a sign that all of the criticisms of him lost even if Kerry doesn't win.

Also, Kerry is coming back from the dead too. The media wrote him off so agressively.

That's the thing about the media. If they hate you and you win, they've created a monster. They've given you the comeback kid label.

[southpaw72]

2. i think it's healthy

I think the fact that it's a close race is a good sign. It means that people are actually thinking about the race, that they're fired up and really want to find the best candidate to beat the Chimp.

Personally, I am supporting both Dean and Edwards, and haven't decided who I'm going to vote for. So I like the fact that it doesn't feel like a foregone conclusion.

[Supormom]

11. I agree...

I believe that all of the candidates are good representatives of the Democratic Party. I don't see a close race as a sign of a weak playing field. Just wish they would keep to promoting their own platforms and criticizing Bush* and his administration. It's frustrating when they start beating up on each other.

[ignatiusr]

3. Pretty much accurate,

Except I think that Edwards will need a third to get enough boost to keep competing. It's a four-way race, so finishing fourth is the last thing you want to do. And he doesn't have enough momentum elsewhere (5% in NH) to survive without a boost.

Kerry may need a first to pass Clark in NH, although a second would definitely keep him in the running. A third, in front of Dean, would also probably keep him viable.

[AP]

7. People will think of Edwards as going from 5% to 20% and want to

look into him, which is all he wants them to do. He doesn't need to win to do that.

He's not like Kerry. Kerry was once the favorite. Edwards was talked about for a couple weeks a year ago. But people have incessantly treated him like he was the invisible man. He's been on the the media's pay no mind list. Fourth place is a big victory, especially since Super Tuesday is his moment of truth.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

8. Except for Edwards IA and NH are just gravy.

I think he is counting on the later contests to win him delegates. He just needs to make a respectable showing in NH and IA so he won't be counted out. Finishing a close fourth in IA is more than a respectable showing and a lot more than anyone was predicting a few weeks ago. If he were to take second it would be a four way race for real, nationally, (Clark, Dean, Edwards, Kerry).

[LuminousX]

4. Depends on money

If the campaign is well-financed, it only needs to place above single digit candidates. If the campaign is low on money and doesn't have strong fundraising opportunities, it needs to place in the top 4.

[Sir_Shrek]

6. Agreed

If Dean finds himself in fourth, that's going to be a huge shock to the system. With the notoriety he's built up, I don't think he can tolerate any less than 2nd place....maybe 3rd. The only person that can finish ahead and not injure him is Edwards.

Geppy needs 1st place...anything less shakes an already delicate foundation.

Kerry could take 1-3 and be OK I think. If he finishes close to Dean, I think he's still in good shape. Ifhe finishes behind Gep and Dean, a little tougher to deal with, especially considering the tough running in NH.

Edwards has the most to gain, but he rolls in fourth I think that's just treading water. He really needs a top 3 finish.

[AP]

9. Again, my argument for Edwards:

his argument has been, 'if they listen to me, they will like what I'm saying."

He has SHOT up since people have paid attention to him.

If he got 18% of the vote, people are going to want to know what the fairy dust was they were spreading around at his campaign stops that made him fly.

[AP]

10. Incidentally, I think Edwards is the only one with the "if they listen to

me, they'll like me" argument that needs to be made.

The public knows Gep, Kerry and Dean well enough now that they're not trying to make that point.

Edwards is in the process of proving succinctly the first promise he made in this campaign.

[tigereye]

13. I really like Gephardt

I agree with many of his policies. I wish that Iowa and New Hampshire carried less weight in the process; it often seems that the emphasis on these states ( no offense intended to those who live there) doesn't allow enough time for candidates to really get going, with so many other states left to vote.

[salin]

12. Off topic... was wondering what would be the buzz with a surprising

result - such as someone like Kucinich... ending up above someone like... Gephardt. Not likely - but strange things have been known to happen in early primaries.

The idea popped into my head a couple of days ago. It is so speculative (not based on anything beyond a "what the heck would happen if..." random thought), that it didn't seem worthy of a whole thread. But - this looked like a good place to throw the question and see if anyone might chose to speculate on how that might (or might not) shake up the race a bit.

[AP]

17. Leno and Letterman woudl crack a few jokes, it'd be treated as

an anomally, and it'd end up in the X-Files, sadly. There is such a huge effort to be totally dismissive of the most unreptant liberal in the race. You can be a left wing radical in politics, just so long as you don't look and act like one.

That's why, I believe, Wellstone was so dangerous. He was the one who could have run for president and could have won.

[bigwillq]

14. I think a top 3 finish is a must for Gep.

Kerry and Dean can finish anywhere in the top 3 and I think will be o.k. Edwards--it's a toss up. I think it'll be hard for him to finish in the top 2, even if he does I don't think he'll get too much of a boost in N.H. not with Clark in the mix. He should be happy with the progress he made in the last week and be happy with a 3rd or 4th finish. Plus I think he'll do better in other states.

[poskonig]

15. Gep needs #1.

Dean can stammer around with a #2, but it will kill his campaign in the longrun. With Kerry, it is do or die with a #1 spot; otherwise it becomes a Dean v Clark race. Edwards can get away with a second place finish, but a 3rd place finish makes him irrevelant, given he is not doing so hot in SC.

[bigwillq]

16. I should make a correction about Gep.

I think he needs to win Iowa too b/c I don't think he looks strong in NH. I haven't seen the latest polls. I don't follow the polls too much any more.

[AP]

18. I'll repeat my disagreements.

Kerry has been written off and Kerry is paired with Dean in people's minds. Kerry mostly needs to beat Dean.

Edwards has been ignored. Edwards has only promissed that if people listen they will like him. Have yous seen his approval/disapproval/not familiar ratings? they're amazing, considering he's within striking distance of a win (72:8:20). He only needs to show people that if you get to know him, you'll like him. People will forgive him if he doesn't come in first. A victory for him has been what he's ALREADY achieved -- a trippling of his poll numbers.

There's no reason to believe that he can't repeat the same sort of trajectory he's had in IA in every state -- you get to know him, and his poll numbers go up. In SC he's starting from much higher, so he's got to be the favorite still. He probably only needs a third as much appeal in SC as he's had in IA to win SC.

[isbister]

19. If the polls are even close to being right

Kerry and Edwards already won. They were so far behind as late as a wek ago.

Dean already lost because he blew such a large lead. A one or two point win won't look too great.

Gephardt says he "must" win... wonder if he drops out if he loses by a point or two