Just had a conference call about polling. Kerry looks strong. (UPDATED)

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Fri Oct-29-04 02:51 PM
Original message

Just had a conference call about polling. Kerry looks strong. (UPDATED)

Edited on Sat Oct-30-04 06:55 AM by Skinner

I just got off a great conference call with Tad Devine, Stan Greenberg, Joe Lockhart and Doug Sosnik about the latest Democracy Corps poll. Our guys sounded very confident...

NOTES:

Stan Greenberg

Latest Democracy Corps Poll shows 49 Kerry - 47 Bush

They see 47 as a ceiling for Bush.

Other polls all show the same ceiling for Bush: 47 47 47 47 47 ...

All other polls are the same except for Battleground Poll. Battleground is the outlier, but they were the most wrong in 2000, and had but Bush +5 over Gore.

Key states are stable for Kerry. Looks like we are in a position to win FL, PA, OH, WI.

Consolidation is taking place on both sides. Before, the Bush supporters looked more consolidated. But now Dems are finally as enthusiastic as Republicans. Our side is consolidating.

Independents are breaking strongly for Kerry. This is also true in Kerry polling, and carries across all polls. All of the bad news from the last week is pushing Independents to Kerry.

This could be a "change election." 52% want a change, and 44 want to continue in Bush direction. Among independents the numbers are even better: 58 to 35, they want a new direction from the one Bush is taking.

The Democracy Corps Poll shows fewer undecideds than other polls: Only 2%. But they share the same Bush 47% ceiling number with other polls.

Issues that are most important: Fighting for Middle class, Lower health care costs, (one other I didn't catch), etc. Kerry is strong on all of these.

Tad Devine

I agree with Stan. I feel good about where we are.

Kerry enters final weekend in much stronger shape than Gore in 2000. I feel good on the state-by-state.

MI, PA, and other big battleground states are strong for Kerry. FL and OH situation is much stronger this time than in 2000.

We are substantially outspending Bush across the country and in battleground states. Even if you take the aggregate spending with all the independent expenditures, we still have the advantage.

Whoever wins two out of three from these two groups 1) OH, FL, PA and 2) MN, WI, IA, will win the presidency. We could actually win all of them.

If momentum stays up where it is, there will be a clear, decisive victory for Kerry.

Doug Sosnik

Bush made no effort to go beyond his base in governing. It is going to be hard for him to get above 50%.

Early voting shows high turnout. On high turnout, it's hard to win on an appeal-to-the-base strategy.

QUESTIONS

NY Post: Al-Jazeera going to show bin Laden tape. What do you think?

A: Silly to try to assess something they haven't seen.

CBS News: How much of a difference does it make that Bush was on defensive this week?

A: We can't believe that the President wanted to play defense on the last week of the campaign: Explosives story. Cleaning up for Guiliani blaming troops. President has been wholly and relentlessly negative. President is on the defensive on an issue that has hurt him very badly -- going to war recklessly. He has not been heard on his positive closing message or on his critique on Kerry. A "Pefect storm" hit the Bush campaign this week. And with their responses they are doing damage to themselves and their credibility.

News Hour: Question for Stan and Ted: Compare the Favorable/Unfavorable in this poll to your poll from October 24/25. Kerry unfavorables have actually gone up. His deficit on issue of Foreign Policy/Iraq has actually gotten worse. Have things actually gotten worse for Kerry?

A: There has been no significant change in overall favorability. Polling done by the campaign in battleground states, especially in FL, OH, WI, have shown improvements in favorability.

Q: Bush pulling away in MN?

A: Disagree. Kerry has lead in MN. Not huge, but a lead. Pres approval is in mid-40s. Consolidated support among supporters in MN. We feel good about what's going on. We feel we're in a strong position to win MN. In 2000, we went into last week behind in MN, WI, IA, NM, and we won all of them.

Kos: Curious about the disparity in funding in OH. How is it that you are able to outspend Bush now?

A: This is due to strategic planning from way back. We made a judgment that we would save money until the end. The Republicans decided to come out of the gate very hard, very early and spend a lot right after the convention. The Bush post-convention bounce was partially due to their dominant spending. You are seeing consequences now. We are up with more gross ratings points and more dollars spent. Early on it was tough. But today we're able to take it to the GOP and beat them in resources. This resource advantage will help us win a number of close races in a number of states.

Q: Any plans for exit polling?

A: No. But we do have ambitious boiler-room operation for election day to provide real-time info. We think exit polling will be very complicated due to the large amount of early voting. There have been unprecedented numbers of early voters, and Kerry is doing well with early voters. We are warning people to take this into account in their exit polling. It's a big issue especially in FL. Want to make sure the actual result reported by the media is how people voted.

Copley News Service: How come Kerry hasn't busted this race open earlier? Why is it close?

A: The President has done such a good job at polarizing the nation. He has locked himself into the mid 40s, maybe even 47. They were trying to limit the vote so their 47 would be the winning number. Bush tactics gave him a floor on his vote. But it also gave him a ceiling. And that's why he's not going to win the election. National polls highlight the national number. But national number doesn't matter; campaign is being waged in 10 to 15 states. Also, there are varying definitions of likely voters. If you look at what we think is real: registered voters in battleground states, we are in very strong position. I reject the premise of the question.

END