Fellow Clark supporters: Should we root for Kerry or Gephardt in Iowa?

[bluestateguy]

Obviously we want Dean to lose in Iowa to stall his NH momentum, where our guy is surging. But now Kerry is picking up some traction in Iowa. I'm worried that if Kerry pulls a surprise win in Iowa he willl surge in New Hampshire, where he used to be the front-runner. It's perfectly logical that many of those ex-Kerry voters could come back to Kerry if he revitalizes his campaign in Iowa. Gephardt, on the other hand, has nowhere to go in NH, and would likely get clobbered on Feb. 3rd, save for Missouri.

[Maddy McCall]

1. Analytically, I would say Gep, but emotionally, I want Kerry.

Kerry vs. Clark would be a tight race elsewhere in the northeast.

[Kahuna]

17. Pretty much, ditto. What you said.

:yourock:

[MoonRiver]

19. Me too.

I simply believe that Kerry would be a better candidate against *, AND, a better president. So Kerry is still my second choice and if he wins the nomination I hope he pairs up with Clark.

I want Clark to pull off a win in NH, and think he might even be able to do so against Kerry. There is still the issue of Kerry's IWR vote.

[Trajan]

2. THIS Clark supporter ...

is rooting for the DEMOCRAT in Iowa ....

Be it Kerry, Edwards, Gephardt, OR Dean ....

Dont let the ugliness in DU translate into real world ignorance ...

[DoveTurnedHawk]

3. Gephardt Winning Is the Best for Us, IMO

Followed by Kerry, Dean and Edwards.

That's because Gephardt has nowhere to go, really, since he's almost out of money, and he's polling poorly in NH and all of the February 3 states except his home state of Missouri.

The battle for second place is slightly iffy, IMO. I think it's slightly more important that Dean lose badly, than it is for Kerry not to receive a bounce. A Kerry second place finish would help him in NH, but Clark should hopefully still be able to finish ahead of him in light of the lead and momentum he's built up. Additionally, Kerry, too, is polling poorly in the February 3 states.

I rate a Dean third-place finish as more favorable than an Edwards third place finish, only because regardless of whether Dean takes third or fourth, it will still be spun as a huge loss. Meanwhile, Edwards is a potentially large threat to Clark in South Carolina and the rest of the South. To be utterly pragmatic, it would help Clark if Edwards dropped out as soon as possible, since that would leave Clark as the sole Southerner in the race.

Of course, I think the chances of Dean placing anywhere but the top two is remote. And it's looking like Gephardt will have a tough time winning, based on the recent polls (although I think his seasoned organization will help him a lot).

Kerry is the real wild card, IMO. If Kerry wins Iowa...holy crap, look out. NH will then become REALLY interesting.

DTH

[OHdem10]

4. It probably does not matter--

This dogfight has been set up--knock off Dean then go after Clark after all as they so aptly state he (Clark) is not ready for prime time. The fix is in. If I were abettig person I would put money om this.

[nightperson]

10. Well, thanks.

I have no idea if you're right, but it's nice to hear support from any quarter. :shrug:

[IndianaGreen]

15. I agree, the fix is in

Once Dean is disposed of, Clark will be put through the same meat grinder as evidenced by Lieberman's accusations that Clark was not a real Democrat, and the NY Times calling into question Clark's position on the Iraq War.

The fix is in! The Washington Democratic establishment is not going to let any of the insurgent candidates get the nomination.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

41. I don't see all the veterans and firefighters as "establishment"

nor a lot of the other everyday folks supporting John.
The man's got a record I can rally around- and I'm obviously not alone.

[Crunchy Frog]

5. I'm rooting

for Gephardt.

[The Magistrate]

6. It Hardly Matters, Sir

A poorer than expected showing by Gov. Dean will be the story, should that occur, no matter who does better than expected.

Rep. Gephardt, as others have observed, has nowhere to go beyond Iowa. But Sen. Kerry, as a New Englander himself, will find a good, or even great showing, in New Hampshire somewhat devalued, on gtounds he is a local boy, and so of course did better than an outsider.

Any slowing of Gov. Dean, anywhere, works to the benefit of Gen. Clark.

"An election differs from a civil war only as the bloodless surrender of a force outnumbered in the field differs from Waterloo."

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

[JI7]

7. anyone but john edwards ?

not a clark supporter, but if i was i think it would hurt clark the most if edwards did well.

[mikehiggins]

47. I have almost exactly the opposite view

I think an Edwards surge would really mess things up for all three of the other candidates, but leave him no better off in New Hampshire than he is now.

Remember, we're talking about proportional allocation of delegates. If all four men end up within a percentage point of one another, who actually comes out of this a winner? The guy with 3/7s more of a delegate?

All four roll into New Hampshire in the same mess that they were in during Iowa (hopefully rolling over Joe2004 as they do) and the battle continues, only now they have to contend with Clark for the first time.

Yeah, Edwards is my guy.

And if he doesn't get the nod I think whoever does would be a turkey not to ask Edwards on board as VP, or at least Attorney General. This is a guy who WILL be president sooner or later. He's someone Hillary should keep close watch on.

[windansea]

8. I don't care who wins Iowa

as long as Gep and Kerry are 1st or 2nd

[necso]

9. Dean

Kerry is starting to look like he might have legs. Like Krugman's analysis today points out, Dean and Clark are close philosophically in important ways.

I would rather battle it out with a narrowly victorious Dean and even lose to him rather than give life to an ABDOC phenomenon (which I am starting to take very, very seriously). I believe that only Clark can win in the fall, but if we are to lose, let us loose with a pugnacious in-your-face candidate. Might cost us a few seats, but without Clark as our candidate we are going down anyway.

Now to say nice things about Dean. Of all the candidates (my apologies, General), I think that Dean is the least likely to let the election be stolen from him without a real fight. I believe that he will give blow for blow and never sound retreat or surrender. Maybe the General is just a little too nice (again, my apologies, General). Of course, I could be wrong.

[NV1962]

11. not to detract

from the nice words about Howard Dean (with which I can agree to a fair extent - he doesn't strike me as a roll-over pussycat either) but...

http://clark04.com/speeches/024/

Quote:

"<...> I want to put the Republican Party on notice: We're going to appoint a legal team to monitor the 2004 election carefully, and if anyone is intimidated, or turned away from the polls illegally, we will push to prosecute the perpetrators to the full extent of the law.

This is a very personal issue for me. I spent thirty-four years in the United States military defending this right - starting back in 1963, when I was a student at West Point. Back then, we were fighting to protect America from threats to our democracy abroad. And equally patriotic young people were fighting here on American soil to make sure we lived up to the ideals of that democracy."

It's not wise to confound the poise and elegance of an officer and a gentleman with the relentless determination that drives this formidable strategist with extraordinary tactical reflexes - and last but not least: a fenomenal ability to build an overpowering coalition.

It is this especially that last part which makes him a formidable and most "dangerous" adversary for Bush.

Y'aint seen nothing yet!


Edited to add: in response to the question of this topic: head says Gephardt (with Edwards as close second) heart says Kerry (with Dean as close second)

[flpoljunkie]

29. None of the Dem candidates will go down without a fight, like in 2000.

Democrats have learned their lesson from 2000. Never again!

[mouse7]

12. Clark supporters should root for scud missile attacks on Iowa...

...since they are so good at launching attacks from outside a caucus they aren't even supposed to be participating in.

[IndianaGreen]

13. Why would any of you support or root for a pro-IWR candidate?

This may come back to haunt you at a later time.

[jonnyblitz]

14. they fear Dean. that takes priority. nt

[IndianaGreen]

16. There will be serious repercussions if the Democrats nominate...

a prowar candidate in Boston. I am not the only DUer that is raising the warning flag about this!

On edit:

The generational split is quite evident, with those over 40 favoring the establishment candidates. This is the same demographics we had back in 1968.

[molly]

18. There is no candidate that is pro-war

and what "serious repercussions"?

[Forkboy]

38. what "serious repercussions"?

losing.

[flpoljunkie]

33. Indiana Green, Only Bush and Lieberman were "Pro War".

Bush went to war not having exhausted diplomatic means as the resolution required. He pulled out the inspectors when they asked for only 30 more days--all the while insisting that "war was a last resort."

Bush lied. He betrayed the American people, Congress, and the United Nations. He deserves no less than impeachment.

It is Bush who deserves your anger.

[Killarney]

20. I'm rooting for Kerry

It would probably be better for Clark is Gephardt won, but I still like Kerry a lot so I'm just going to have to root for him in Iowa, even though it may make my main man's (Clark) job harder in NH. I just really respect Kerry.

[mmonk]

21. Not pulling for anyone

Just sitting back watching things. The only thing I'll consider is the final numbers of the caucus (I'm a skeptical person who will believe only the final reality). Then I can speculate more accurately.

[KittyWampus]

22. Vote For The Best Man

who in your heart, YOU believe is the best of the two.

[Ivote]

23. NEITHER

If you are a true Clark supporter
"You can write his name in"!
If not, good luck to all the candidates
and we will see you in NH
Remember were all in this together.

[Name removed]

24. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Bread and Circus]

25. We need either Clark or Kerry in the White House, preferable Clark

[markus]

26. Frankly, why note Edwards

I'm a Dean man myself. However, with the glaring exception of having voted for the Patriot Act after being one of the few Democrats allowed to read it first, he seems like he would be attractive to Clark supporters.

Hey, if you're guy doesn't make it, why not root for the next closest to your own?

Or are we all just too Machiavellian?

[HFishbine]

27. Yes

You should.

[tameszu]

28. Gephardt!!!!!!

We will have a much, much, much, much harder time in NH if Kerry places better than 3rd in IA--although now that he's shot to 1st in a few polls, 2nd won't be quite as great--but still pretty darned good, as it means he beat either Gep or Dean, both candidates with high expectations.

And do you know where most of our support over the past 2 weeks in NH came from? It wasn't from Gep!

Gep is also running out of cash and has next to nothing to work with in NH.

[robbedvoter]

30. Rooting for a squeaker - and I'll probably get it.

Who cares who comes on top if they are close? It only means Iowa means bubkus. On to actual primaries.

[floridaguy]

31. I like Kerry, and he will probably end up endorsing Clark (n/t)

[xultar]

32. Go Gep! n/t

[Renew Deal]

34. I have a few thoughts on this.

I used to think Gephardt to hurt Dean.

Then I thought Dean so Gep drops out. Dean would be expected to win.

I am somewhere between there now. There are 2 best case scenarios. 1 is Dean, Gep, Kerry. Gep would probably drop out and there is nothing big there for Kerry. Dean would be expected to win.

The other is Gep, Kerry, Dean or Gep, Dean, Kerry. This pushes Dean way down and Gep isn't going to get anything anyway. The problem is that he will hang on until Feb. 3.

[TexasSissy]

35. Hmmm. Difficult. But I'm rooting for Kerry.

Yes, I guess it'd be better for us if Gephardt would win IA. But if Gep loses, he's out of the race, essentially. That helps.

And I just can't help but be glad for Kerry that his hard work and the mtge of his home are finally paying off some. I can't help it. He's worked hard in Wash. for 20 years and has an excellent voting record.

I'm definitely for Clark. But I'd be happy to vote for Kerry, should he win the nomination. I'm also glad that Edwards' campaign is finally taking off some, too.

I can't help it. They're almost all good guys.

[John_H]

36. A verrrrrrrry tough call

Since Kerry would get a huge bounce in NH as a result of an IA win, making him the anti-Dean, I guess we should hope for Gephardt. But, on the other hand, a kerry win in IA knowcks Gphardt out of the race. I think that Clark would get more of Gephardt's organization and votes than Kerry or Dean.

The most positive sign out of all the recent polling is that the rightwing media's attempt to convince Democrats that Dean is inevitable has been thwarted by rank and file Dems as they begin to tune into the race. I don't think we're going to see too many FOX scrolls or Hardball promos asking, "Can Dean be stopped?" any more.

The bottom line: I would gladly have to chose between Clark and Kerry by the time the VA primary rolls around. simply because it would mean we're going to nomiate someone who can beat Chimp either way. That's what's best for America.

[mzmolly]

37. Rooting for Kerry would be a grave mistake for Clark voters.

Go ahead and root for Gep.

I wonder if Clark supporters are backing Kerry in the Iowa Caucaus and this explains his leap foward?

[necso]

39. Got that right.

Kerry is starting to pose a much greater threat to Clark than most people realize, I think.

Outside of the fact that Kerry needs stopped (if you are a Clark supporter --- although I like and admire Kerry myself), I think that keeping Dean in front runner status builds Clark's stance as the Dean alternative.

So I still say back Dean. Do it out of conviction (as I would argue) or do it out of craft, but back Dean. I realize that this bucks conventional wisdom, but I honestly believe that the sooner that it is clearly a two man race (Dean and Clark), the better it is for the General.

Gep (a good man) is probably going nowhere, an Iowa win or no. Still a win keeps him in the race longer. Lieberman (he means well, I really do believe) is definitely going nowhere. Edwards (I know little of him, but he seems like a good man) may constitute a problem later on, so backing him would also be a mistake. The other candidates have no chance, but getting them out early is a good idea.

[ShaneGR]

40. Gephardt or Dean, NOT Kerry or Edwards

Clark is running to run against Dean.... anything that helps Kerry or Edwards hurt a Clark race.

[edzontar]

42. If I were you, I'd root for Gephardt..cause if Kerry wins...

He will bury you in NH.

[Maddy McCall]

43. kick

[lurk_no_more]

44. I say Kerry

either Clark and Kerry have my vote in the GE, so while I prefer Clark, I have no qualms with Kerry winning and for me to want Kerry to lose just to make Clark win would be dishonest.

Just as long as it's not that other guy!



And then there were none!
” JAFO”

[jpgpenn]

45. I say , let the people vote

Then we can do for our candidate, what is needed. I have a prob rooting for someones loss. It should always be what the voters want not what supporters of X candidate want.

But I do get the jest of your post. Thanks

[gulliver]

46. If Dean loses, Clark benefits. Regardless.

If Kerry wins Iowa, it hurts Dean a lot more than it helps Kerry. It means that Dean will likely lose NH and probably the primary.

After Iowa, we have the WMUR/Union Leader debate in NH on Jan. 22. I expect fireworks. If Dean loses Iowa, NH will be watching the debates to decide between Clark and Kerry. I believe it will go Clark, based on previous debate performances.

Even if it doesn't, however, and Kerry wins NH, Clark will still benefit mightily. He will have finished second, and the national front-runner will be gone. States outside Kerry's backyard will be much more likely to go Clark in the remainder of the primary.

I'm very optimistic at this point about Clark's chances. I notice he is about to pass $1M at www.americansforclark.com. I'm in.

[BobbyJay]

55. EXACTLY

[bain_sidhe]

48. Don't hate me, but I'm rooting for Dean in IA

Why? Because I really WANT the race to boil down to these two. I fully realize that Dean is the greatest threat to my candidate, and in my ever so humble opinion, that's as it should be. just as the fact that Clark is seen as the greatest threat to Dean is as it should be. We can't keep chasing the same minority of voters, we've GOT to grow the party to reclaim voters that have either 1) been tilting to the Republicans for years, or 2) bringing back in the people who haven't even been voting for years. Two strategies, both worth looking at, IMHO.

These two men are the best representatives we have of those two different ideas about how grow the Democratic party into a majority in this country. And I am perfectly willing to abide by the judgement of the majority of Democrats who care enough about the party to get off their butts and vote in the primaries. I want those Democrats to be presented with a clear choice. But more importantly than which one is chosen, is the fact that the choice is one between two different ways of CHANGE, instead of a choice between change and status quo.

(I hope I'm not going to be kicked out of the Clark clubhouse for this. I choose Clark's way of growing the party, for a number of reasons. But I am convinced of the sincerity of those who choose Dean's way. I just disagree that it's the right way, but... as I say, I'm willing to abide by the judgement of the primary voters.)

**edited for clarity**

[Jerseycoa]

50. I'm rooting for a Dean squeaker in Iowa

I want it to be between Clark and Dean in NH, and not Clark and Kerry. I think Kerry would do better against Clark than Dean would, and there's not enough contrast between Clark and Kerry to hurt Dean sufficiently. If Kerry wins the nom, I'm behind him 100% next day and Edwards, too. Anybody else I'd vote ABB in the GE.

[bain_sidhe]

51. "not enough contrast between Clark and Kerry"

I disagree, in part. As far as the actual content of their appeal, I agree - both are strong on foreign policy, veterans, and have proposed liberal domestic policies. And I'd rather have a Kerry presidency than a Dean one, because I think repairing our alliances and reputation is one of the most important issues facing the nation right now, and I think Kerry could do that better than Dean.

But there's a world of difference between them in terms of what they represent in the primary. Both Clark and Dean represent change. Kerry represents status quo, in terms of the party. Yes, a little more liberal, a little more internationally focused, but given his decades of service in the Congress, he represents the party as it is now. I think the party has to change. It's my opinion that we have to change by bringing back those people who don't really belong with the Republicans philosophically, but have been voting for them because of either national defense issues or because they don't believe that Democrats share their views on the importance of family, faith, and individual responsibility - yes, that's due to years of propaganda, but it's still a real perception. I think they belong with US, the Democrats. I think Clark can convince them of that.

A Kerry vs. Dean race confuses the choice that Democrats are facing by adding a "change vs. status quo" element to the already important "foreign policy" vs. "domestic policy" question. I want the choice to be a clearer and simpler one - "this change" (bringing back those voters who've been voting against their interests due to propaganda) or "that change" (bringing back voters who've thrown up their hands at the whole mess and haven't voted at all).

Any choice that introduces extra elements into the mix will simply make it unclear what the majority of Democrats are saying they want with their primary vote... If Dean's the nominee, how will we determine *what* people were voting for when they voted for him... did they vote for change? Or did they vote for Dean because of his populism/domestic focus? If Kerry's the nominee, did they vote for him because they want a greater focus on foreign policy? Or because they want the Democratic party to change a bit in its emphasis, but essentially remain the same sort of party it's been for the last 20 years?

Of course, I'm not a political science expert, nor do I play one on tv. I could be all wrong. But I don't think so, or I wouldn't have posted this. :D

[Tatiana]

52. You've got some very interesting ideas, there!

I especially like the part about bringing back those "Reagan Democrats," the people who only vote Republican over defense issues or religion or whatever. Facts are that those people's interests are best represented by Democrats and there is no candidate I have greater confidence in than Wesley Clark to convey this message.

Not to mention, think about the coattails Clark will bring to Democratic candidates running for Congress.

[Mattforclark]

49. Strategically, the Gepper, though

I personally like Kerry more than Gephardt...

[Kathleen04]

53. I keep..

mulling this over..

On one hand, I think I strategically want Dean to win. If Dean wins..he may bounce up in NH, but I think it gives Clark the opportunity for a solid 2nd place.

If Gephardt were to win IA, it would hurt Dean a bit..but it could possibly propell Gep to 2nd in NH, which could complicate things..but I don't think Gephardt is going to win much after NH.

If Kerry were to sweep both Iowa and NH, I don't think that this hurts Clark, because I really think Clark enters the picture on February 3rd where Kerry is weak.

Although it would be the worst prospect for Clark strategically, Edwards is my #2 choice and I think him doing well in IA would be a great thing. He'd be a great nominee.

I'm glad I'm not in Iowa so I don't have to make any decisions. :) I think if I were there that I'd go with my heart and caucus for Edwards.


Dean isn't leaving this race easily--we don't have to try to hurt him in IA or NH, he could win both..he could lose both..but he's still going to put up a fight for this nomination. I'd rather have Gephardt and Kerry dropping out, so that we can have Clark vs. Dean. Narrowing the field will be good for Clark. Before I wanted Gep to win just to prove that Dean is not invincible, but Dean has proved that Dean is not invincible. ;)


But, I really think Clark is going to have strength in the Feb. 3rd's and that's where he enters the race..even if we come in 3rd in NH..which is what we were expecting not that long ago. 2nd exceeds expectations, 3rd is good news for us.

[BobbyJay]

54. It doesn't matter IMO. A Dean loss is a Clark win.