Both ARG and Survey USA have Kerry winning OH,PA and Florida

[59millionmorons]

Our national nightmare is almost over.

Kerry Bush
FL 50 48
OH 50 47
PA 53 45
http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

Kerry Bush
FL 49 46
OH 49 47
PA 50 47


http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

[Kal Belgarion]

1. We have yet to vote

But that's an encouraging sign, nonetheless. :)

[usregimechange]

9. I already voted for Kerry. :-)~ nt

[NewJeffCT]

2. what are the stats inside the polls?

How do they balance Dems vs Repubs?

[deadparrot]

3. That's all well and good, but are they reliable?

There's no doubt I'd rather have Kerry 2-3 points up in polls rather than down, but if the polling organization has a history of crappy results (and which ones don't?), it seems pointless.

[59millionmorons]

5. Not sure

But I do know CBS will have a poll tomorrow from Florida showing kerry ahead.

[whalerider55]

8. regarding the polls...

something to keep in mind is one of the rules of polling: the number the incumbent shows is usually his or her CEILING- they very rarely bring turn out more than that, and much more often show lower on election day.

the challenger's numbers tend to be their floor... they often show stronger numbers than that.

whether that trend will apply this year, who knows. but it has been a pretty fair constant for a long time. Maybe as far back as truman.

whalerider55

[MsConduct]

12. I didn't know that, thanks for the info. n/t

[Inland]

4. Please, please, please God, let it be true!

[Nicholas_J]

6. Looks good

It where the polls stand on the weekend and next monday that are usually most likley pojnting at the final results of the elections.

Usually when polls start moving in tho\is direction, Zogby Follows in a day or two. Lets see what happens.

[NewJeffCT]

7. their senate numbers look ugly, though

good guys way down in CO, NC, SC, OK

[Daisey Mae]

10. These numbers are great.... I feel....

KERRY BY A LANDSLIDE........

[Perky]

11. That is the trifecta!!!

If Bush loses all three there is no way he wins overall.

If you go to electoral-vote.com you can see all the polling in these three states.

Kerry has almost always led in PA it flips back and forth in FL and OH has favored Bush...But in no state does anyone have clear momentum.

The great thing is that the pols are random samples of 600 hundred across the state.

Keys to remember

Challengers are typically underrepresented in polling data even at the last minute.

the poling typically undercounts the young because they have less landlines

Late undecideds typically go 6 to 4 for the challenger not the incumbent


With Bush is not topping 50% in any of these states he apparently has hit his max and likely will lose all three.