I Like To Laugh At Republicans-Exhibit A

[DemocratSinceBirth]

November 6, 2000
Final RCP Electoral College Analysis: Bush 446 Gore 92
Bush 51.2 Gore 41.9 Nader 5.8


CNN/USA Today/Gallup, MSNBC/Zogby and Newsweek have done a nice job closing the polls for Vice President Gore. All three polls now have Gore within two points and supposedly gaining. We'll see Tuesday whether the propaganda campaign to keep Democrats from becoming disillusioned and voting for Nader was successful in diluting the size of the Bush victory.

As we have said all along, Gore needed to close to within 2% in our RCP Composites to have a realistic chance to win. He has not done so. (RCP Tracking Composite Bush 47.3 Gore 41.2, RCP National Poll Composite Bush 47.0 Gore 42.8) George W. Bush will be elected President of the United States tomorrow by the American people. But the last minute Gore push in some polls has perhaps given enough liberal Democrats hope to not waste their vote on Nader.

The real debate is not who is going to win the election, but whether Bush will win 308 electoral votes or 474 electoral votes. The media's fantasy of Bush winning the popular vote and losing the electoral college is not going happen. The worst case scenario for a Bush victory will be a 2-3 point win in the popular vote and 10-20% more than the necessary 270 EC votes.

For those who still maintain Mr. Gore has a chance of winning, consider the scenarios under which this is possible. If Gore does not win Florida (the evidence indicates he will not), he must run the table, taking IL, CA, PA, MI, MN, WI, WA, OR, TN, AR, WV and DE along with his base 92 votes for a 273-265 EC win. It won't happen. Even with a victory in Florida, Gore must win at least 70% of the remaining battleground states to eke out a victory. The truth is that George W. Bush has a better chance of carrying New Jersey and Vermont than Al Gore does of becoming the next President of the United States.

When you sift through the haze of polls and media disinformation, the anecdotal facts are clear. Bush and Gore are fighting it out in Democratic Iowa, West Virginia, Minnesota and even Gore's home state of Tennessee. Bush is reaching out to moderate Democrats and independents while Gore is frantically trying to energize his base. The media openly acknowledges Bush's base is more energized and that Gore faces a significant threat from Nader on his left. Yet the pundits still talk as if the election is too close to call and could go either way.

On Tuesday night the talking heads will all be abuzz with their exit poll analyses showing how Bush destroyed Gore in the male vote, broke even with women, carried over 40% of the Hispanic vote, and the surprising strength of Ralph Nader. All of this is clear today, but it will take the network exit polls to make it clear to the national press.

We continue to see a landslide of over 400 electoral votes and a Bush win by 7-10 points. We will have to wait until tomorrow to see whether the "tightening polls" may have worked to save Illinois, California, Minnesota and a few others for the Vice President.

An explanation of each critical battleground state can be found on the Critical Battleground State page.

Bush 446 Gore 92

States Bush Will Win
Odds
States Gore Will Win
Odds

Alaska - 3
100%
District of Columbia - 3
100%

Utah - 5
100%
New York - 33
100%

Idaho - 4
100%
Hawaii - 4
100%

Montana - 3 100%
Massachusetts - 12 100%

Nebraska - 5
100%
Rhode Island - 4
100%

Kansas - 6 100%

Oklahoma - 8 100%

Texas - 32 100%

South Dakota - 3
100%

North Dakota - 3 100%

Wyoming - 3 100%

Colorado - 8
100%

Indiana - 12
100%

Arizona - 8
100%

Virginia - 13 100%

South Carolina - 8 100%

Alabama - 9 100%

Mississippi - 7
100%

Georgia - 13 100%

Louisiana - 9 100%
Kentucky - 8 100%

Ohio - 21 100%
North Carolina - 14 100%

Bush Has A Lock On 205 Votes Gore Has A Lock On 56 Votes
States Bush Will Probably Win States Gore Will Probably Win
Nevada - 4
95%
Connecticut - 8
95%

4 more - Bush now at 209 votes 8 more - Gore now at 64 votes
209 - SAFE FOR NOW 64 - SAFE FOR NOW
States That Are Leaning Towards Bush States That Are Leaning Towards Gore
New Mexico - 5
59%
Maryland - 10
56%

Missouri - 11
59%
Vermont - 3
52%

New Hampshire - 4
58%


Florida - 25 58%

Arkansas - 6 57%

Tennessee - 11 57%

Oregon - 7 56%

Washington - 11
54%

West Virginia - 5 54%
Michigan - 18
53%

Pennsylvania - 23
52%

Wisconsin -11
51%

Maine - 4 51%
141 more - Bush now at 350 votes 13 more - Gore now at 77 votes
Dead Heat States That Are 50/50
These are winner take all forced predictions
Bush Has A Slightly Better Chance Gore Has A Slightly Better Chance
Delaware - 3
50/50 New Jersey - 15
50/50

Iowa - 7
50/50




Minnesota - 10 50/50

Illinois - 22 50/50
California - 54 50/50
96 more - Bush now at 446 votes 15 more - Gore now at 92 votes
446 92





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Critical State Polls







Favorable/Unfavorable





Generic Vote





Key Senate Polls


Home...

[Eric J in MN]

1. what is the RCP? nt

nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. click

www.realclearpolitics.com


he has lots of data but his analysis is cacka....

[Proud2BAmurkin]

3. ha ha ha KICK

!

[Inland]

4. Just emailed this to Chicago Tribune's Eric Zorn

who wrote a column on how political junkies get their fix from RCP.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. I'm Glad I Helped In A Small Way... (nt)

[Inland]

6. Hope so, since I didn't credit you with research or anything.

[Awsi Dooger]

7. A miss is as good as 537 miles

A blowhard who predicts a 40 point football win is barely ridiculed if the team wins by 1. Super Bowl III would be comparatively forgettable if the Colts snuck past the Jets, even by fluke.

I'm in a 16 man big-money betting pool. The people who picked a Bush win benefited a hell of a lot more than I did, forecasting Gore.

I understand your point and remember that article from 2000. In fact, I kept the link throughout the post-election month until SCOTUS. At that point I tossed my Gore/Lieberman poster and all the chirpy rightwing links. They won. No laughing matter. The current state of the planet is proof of that.

[Sarrek420]

8. Exhibit B

My apologies DemocratSinceBirth. I wanted to post this. But I am still a noob who can't yet start a thread. I hope its ok to post this in your thread..

I would like to launch Exhibit B at the Republicans.

A copy of an email I just sent to John Kerry.
-----------


From myself and all of us I.L.U.W. longshoremen. Hi Senator John Kerry, we all love you and are working hard to defeat Bush.

We, and all us hard working Americans need you. So kick that Texan back to Texas for us.. :)

Anyway, I thought to send this e-mail because I dug-up something the other day that I think is rather interesting. I posted it on my web space and provided links below for you to review.

- We all know that Bush lied about WMD's to get an excuse to invade Iraq

- We all know that he lied about Iraq ties to Al Quida

And I think I may have just caught him in ANOTHER lie with the document I dug-up.

Its a U.S. Navy / Marine document dated back in 1990 that states that those Kurds that were gassed, were not gassed by Saddam, but rather most likely by the Iranians.

Please verify the document first if you decide its news worthy.

Anyway Mr. Senator, did I just catch Bush in ANOTHER LIE?

Check this out, and tell me what you think..

First click this one to see what document I found.
http://members.cox.net/ducati996sp/foreword.pdf


Then click this one (its part of the same document) and read the second page - which is actually page 100.
http://members.cox.net/ducati996sp/appb.pdf