A word of caution about Zogby and ARG

[Padraig18]

I can't blame any non-Dean supporter from taking some heart in the latest Zogby and ARG numbers, since I would be similiarly uplifted were the situation reversed. I would add a note of caution, however, in the form of a reminder: by most estimates, the Howard Dean campaign has more than $20 million in cash on hand; such a sum can provide a lot of 'survivability' to a campaign. As the French would say, tres formidable!

As you were. :)

[Renew Deal]

1. Rumors have it it is closer to 9.5 on hand.

Which rumor do we believe?

[Hep]

2. Is it not public domain?

n/t

[Padraig18]

3. Not yet, no.

:)

[Melodybe]

11. Considering that we crack the bat before the deadline every single time

I will believe that we are fine in the money department. We made a million last week and I sent some of my own smackers to them. So I highly doubt we have less than 20 Million. I think people are just trying to feed the rumor that we are losing support. Look ya'll have been calling us koolaid drinkers for monthes now, do you honestly think that we are giving up on Dean? We are just getting started. I personally think that we are going to sweep the primaries. I think that we have the money, the people, and the dedication to do it.

Dean '04

[MercutioATC]

4. With $1M in new contributions per week, does it really matter?

I'm not saying money is everything, but c'mon...I think we all have to admit that Dean has the most financially healthy campaign.

[Padraig18]

5. I choose to believe what those I know in the campaign tell me.

:)

[mzmolly]

7. How bout opensecrets?

http://www.opensecrets.org/presidential/index.asp

Dean had $25 mil as of October.

Clark had 3 mil.

[Dookus]

20. Why do you think

the October numbers have much relevance today?

[Padraig18]

23. I suspect the truth lies in between the two rumors.

If I had to bet my own money, I'd average the $10 million low-ball figure and the $20 million high-ball figure and say $15-16 million in cash on-hand.

[Hawkeye-X]

27. Not likely.

Dean's campaign has 40 million plus raised, so I'd expect more than maybe 25 million on hand. Remember, Dean is a fiscal conservative, and a big penny pincher, so he's trying to save up as much money the GE against *. Once he's got the nomination sewn up and more endorsements coming his way (I hope most people realize that the superdelegate endorsements are more important than say a Michael Moore endoresement or Madonna endorsement) because it gives Dean the advantage of getting on top in terms of delegates needed.

Clark is, of course, limited to the $45 million FEC budget, plus Clark has just under 30 superdelegate endorsement (by my count) vs Dean's 70+ superdelegate endorsements with unlimited budget opportunity, which he will raise constantly until he meets *'s $200M warchest. For every ad that * produces against Dean, not only he will respond with another ad, but also the 527s outside of the campaign will bring up issues that will favor Dean more than *.

Also, people have to realize that polls doesn't count for anything. Zogby and ARG are samply 'likely' voters which Dean has inspired apatheic and never-have-voted-before people to come and vote for him. That's the biggest weapon that Dean will have, and I will predict outright that Dean will carry 3-5% more than the polls' prediction.

Hawkeye-X

[KittyWampus]

31. How Much Is Dean Spending?

For instance, if he's raised 10 million and spent 5 million then he's only got 5 million left.

[Hawkeye-X]

35. So you'll have to wait like everyone else...

to see the numbers when the FEC releases the report.

Hawkeye-X

[AP]

6. That cuts two ways too. He's unlimited in spending, yet still can't sell

his message?

[mzmolly]

8. LOL

Can't sell his message? ;)

[Padraig18]

9. We'll see.

:)

[Larkspur]

17. Dean did not have to mortgage his house, like Kerry did

Dean's support base is the envy of all the others, including Clark, who wanted to know if Dean's base was transferrable to him should Dean lose the nomination.

[dave29]

33. He's running a national campaign

and his message sells quite well, when it gets through the filters ;)

[AP]

39. I know we disagree, but my impression: the media has been selling Dean

nationally, but when it comes down to the local battles, and when the voters are listening to what the candidates are saying, rather than what the media says about the candidates, Dean's message isn't getting him the votes that the media was giving him.

I think Kerry and Clark are the two the media hates the most, and they're now doing great. I think they ignored Edwards until they couldn't any longer, and he's doing great.

I know that there are more critical stories about Dean floating around which people who never liked him are using to make arguments, but I think he's still loved by the national media (cover of Rolling Stone, NPR doesn't tell us why he's being criticized, etc.)

If anything, Dean's problem is that the national-level press fondness is not being repeated on the local level, whether in local media or in the way people think about the candidates on the ground.

[sandnsea]

10. That's why he should be doing better

Money, media and endorsements and he continues that slowmentum. People really do want someone with answers, not anger. A President, not a ringleader.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

22. In addition, they want someone who's positive, presidential & credible

n/t

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

40. Your post is alertable.

:hi:

[sandnsea]

41. Then alert on it

:hi:

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

43. OK

[jmaier]

12. I have absolutely no doubts

that Gov Dean has the staying power for the entire primary season and he'll probably in or near the lead throughout. He's got some rather powerful mojo: people, $$$, organization.

Good luck!

[DancingBear]

15. Agreed

but for right now, I'll take the mojo over the moolah. :)

advertising costs - $$$$
logistical costs - $$$
infrastructure costs - $$
momentum - priceless

[Hawkeye-X]

28. Which Dean has, currently

and Clark is just steaming along, with undecided voters at over 17% on most polls that may go Dean's way once he wins Iowa.

Remember, everyone loves a winner, and Dean is a winner in his own right. 10 plus elections won, the last one was a three-way which Dean won in his own right after talking to people all over Vermont after the civil union law was signed, and being brave about it. Yes, he wore bulletproof vest for a time, but the people of Vermont still loved and respected him.

Hawkeye-X

[DancingBear]

30. The key are the independents/undecideds in NH

Recent polling reports show no indication of the undecideds breaking to Dean. Just the opposite is true - they are breaking to Clark and Kerry, with (I suspect) Edwards being in the mix soon. Sorry, but I see Dean as holding his core support, but not much more. It may be enough for him to win, but expectations will rule the day. For all the candidates.

[Hawkeye-X]

36. Please cite articles/polls supporting your statement

Otherwise, please revise your opinion.

Hawkeye-X

[DancingBear]

42. Using ARG NH polling info here

Number of undecideds has dropped from 19% to 15% over the past 3-4 days, while Dean % has dropped as well. Corresponding increase of aforementioned candidates (factoring in the drop of Lieberman support) would indicate undecideds breaking toward Clark, Kerry and Edwards.

Further mention of eroding soft support of Dean (again, per ARG daily summaries) lends credence to the fact that this is occurring.

If you see these numbers any differently, please cite reasons why. I'm open to interpretation.

[Padraig18]

16. Thanks!

:hi:

[kayleybeth]

19. I agree

We should not underestimate the Dean campaign.

[bluestateguy]

13. ARG polls

I still remember the ARG poll on election eve in Nov. 2000 showing Al Gore with a 10 point lead over Bush in New Hampshire. I am still bitter about that.

[bearfartinthewoods]

14. individual polls are meaningless

trends are what to look for, both with previous polls from the same pollster and among a group of different pollsters.

it's the same as with a poll....the more respondents, the higher the reliability.

[Padraig18]

18. I agree.

this is one of the major reasons that my 'gut' is telling me that the campaign's internal polls are probably more accurate than either Zogby or ARG at this point; the campaign is polling almost daily, and is also gauging depth of support, etc., plus they are polling a more diverse base.

[Dookus]

21. well..

ARG *IS* polling daily.

Whether you think the numbers are correct or not, the trends are pretty obvious.

Clark is at 24, up from single digits a month ago.
Dean is at 29, down from 45 a month ago.

You can argue with the absolute numbers, but the trend is undeniable.

[Padraig18]

26. The trend is there...

... but you can also argue about the 'depth', and what the numbers actually mean. :)

[Hawkeye-X]

29. Polling a small amount of voters

about 200-300 voters vs Dean's daily polls of over 1,500 plus voters in Iowa and NH. I'd trust Dean's internal polls more than I trust ARG or Zogby's polls.

Hawkeye-X

[Padraig18]

32. So would I.

Plus, as I noted, Dean's internal polls are measuring depth/commitment, which neither Zogby nor ARG are. :)

[tameszu]

45. Tracking polls vs. Internal polls

Tracking polls, when taken on aggregate, are pretty darned accurate--remember that they poll 200 persons per day, and only (generally) report the score for the most recent 3-day poll band, which results in a respectable sized sample of 200 and an MoE of around 4.5%. But if you extrapolate from, say, an average of the last 5 or 6 days' results (which for NH would report Clark in the low 20s and Dean in the low 30s), then you have a mighty sample of around 1,000-1,200 and an itty bitty MoE of under 3%

On the other hand, internal polls are, to put it lightly, fool's gold. I pity the campaign that believes its own internal polls--because merely identifying yourself as affiliated to a candidate (which campaigns must legally do) boosts your score by at least 10-20%, both as a result of people who want to make nice, as well as a result of rude supporters of other candidates who will just hang up without giving you any information.

[SadEagle]

38. Yes and no.

It's certainly true that Gen. Clark is doing well, so his campaign and his volunteers in the state have much to be proud of. Perhaps skipping Iowa was indeed a good strategy.

And it's certainly true that ARG is polling daily -- /however/ it's not a full daily poll. Instead, they poll a small sample each day, and average out 3 days, so they may be a tad less meaningful. At any rate, we will see how Iowa goes. That is obviously much tougher to poll than NH, and the coverage will affect the race.

[Padraig18]

24. Kick!

:dem:

[rucky]

25. Donde estan los polls?

El linko por favor.

[windansea]

34. 4 campaign stategists on tweety last night

tweety asked the Dean guy about reports they were spending a ton of money this weekend on TV ads..(tweet had a number but can't remember)

then tweety said "so you think you can buy this election?" or something like that

I think the Dean campaign is using a lot of it's resources right now in an attempt to prevail in Iowa

[Hawkeye-X]

37. TV ads for the weekend in Iowa

will probably cost Dean about 800K-$1.2M in funds.

Hawkeye-X

[DjTj]

44. $90 / voter

Is what the candidates are spending total in Iowa. They reported that on Crossfire today.

...those are some expensive votes.