Zogby numbers in depth - Kerry should start overtaking shrub shortly

[ruggerson]

Zogby does a three day rolling average. The reason Bush moved up a couple of points over the last few days is because of a strong Friday poll and a very strong Saturday poll.

Friday's numbers were Bush + 3.
Saturday's numbers were Bush + 7.
Since today's poll showed Bush up 3 in the rolling average,
Sunday's numbers must have been Kerry even or +1

Sunday's numbers started to show a trend validated by both Rasmussen and Wash Post/ABC. Rasmussen himself says on his website that by Wednesday, he expects Zogby's numbers to match his (i.e: a very slight Kerry lead).

It looks like the trend is confirming that Kerry is closing the deal. The editor of the Wash Post polling unit basically confirmed that today on MSNBC.

The only outlier remains the Gallup poll, which does not re weight for party ID and therefore can measure *trends* but is not numerically precise, and even the Gallup's trend shows a tightening for Kerry.

Look for Kerry to close the gap in the Zogby poll as Friday and Sat's numbers roll off. The numbers in the latter part of the week should reflect whether we're really closing in on this thing.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

1. Gallup overweighted Repubs.

short story: they have bush up by 5 but he's really down by 4.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1166204

[snippy]

10. That is because Gallup's methodology overweights mindless fanaticism.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1166204#1167403

[Quixote1818]

15. With heavy Democratic Turnout Gallup is going to be WAY OFF!

[snippy]

16. Agreed. n/t

[Bonchak]

20. going to be great

Gallup will lose any shred of credibility it still had after 2000

[Mike L]

23. GOP Gallup will close it to a 2 point race on 11-01 so they won't look so

bad in hindsight. Gallup, Jr. is a Fundie who is trying to help Bush as much as possible. The media doesn't report it though. Damn media doesn't even report the F-ed up methodology it uses.

[wryter2000]

2. Thanks.

At this point, any reassurance is a blessing. I know we're going to win, but the mere possibility of four more years of hell is more than I want to contemplate. :scared:

[pelagius]

5. We're going to win...

...but we need to push the totals out of stealing range. A ten-percent margin should be enough. And, no, I don't think that's impossible if "unlikely voters" show up this time.

[AndyTiedye]

3. Was Saturday the Sincair Bounce for Boooosh?

There certainly wasn't anything else happening on Saturday that would have helped him.

[ruggerson]

4. No, just statistical anamoly

Both Rasmussen and Wa Post started seeing a real move to Kerry over the weekend. Zogby had different results, but his polling started to reflect theirs by Sunday. He should catch up to their rolling average by midweek.

[fob]

6. But will they REPORT those numbers? It seems like these rolling avg

polls only get coverage after a big Kerry day rolls off and the avg trends or outright goes bushy*.

[ruggerson]

8. If this is a real trend to Kerry

the numbers in all three tracking polls should reflect fairly stable figures - either dead even or a slight Kerry lead. If by the weekend, Bush has got a 2 point lead again, then this will have all just been statistical noise.

Anecdotally, Kerry's guys look pumped, cautiously so, Bush's aides, and Bush himself, look tired and worried and resigned.

[pabloseb]

7. And that's without the stolen explosives and Clinton...

n/t

[Roland99]

9. Where do you get the daily breakdown? Where do you get Bush +7 on Sat.???

[ruggerson]

14. On Zogby's site

[Roland99]

17. I figured that much but I don't see where.

Does one have to subscribe to his site to get to the numbers?


Would it be that much trouble for someone to post the detail here?

[Awsi Dooger]

18. Here is what Zogby wrote yesterday:

"Pollster John Zogby: “Another good single day of polling for President Bush.  In today’s sample alone, he leads 50% to 43%—the first time we’ve seen either candidate hit 50%.  Each candidate continues to tighten his own constituency, and Undecided voters are now at only 4%"

It's still on his website. Go to the center column, maybe 1/4 down the scroll. Click on the tracking poll update from 10/24.

[Roland99]

19. Thanks....his website needs some layout redesign.

[DaveinMD]

11. again

Zogby's track record on state polls is not very good.

[Awsi Dooger]

12. Agreed, but this thread has nothing to do with state polls

It's in regard to Zogby's national poll, which built his reputation via his final number in '96 and '00.

[DaveinMD]

13. sorry

I thought it was about the battleground. My mistake.

[MattBaggins]

22. I hope so

given that all the Zogby updates on http://www.electoral-vote.com show Kerry plummeting

[Doosh]

21. Wapu and Ras have picked up a trend

Zogby seems to have picked it up late. Gallup is out in left field as usual though they do have Kerry gaining some ground. Usually you get this with Gallup, but it tightens up dramatically in the end. In 2000 Gore went from down 13 to down 2 in a span of 5 days or so.

[DeepModem Mom]

24. kick