According to polls, Hawaii has tightened up considerably

[HeldsBelds]

http://the.honoluluadvertiser.com/article/2004/Oct/23/ln/ln05p.html

Hawai'i Poll: Bush, Kerry in dead heat

By Derrick DePledge
Advertiser Capitol Bureau

President Bush and Sen. John Kerry are deadlocked among likely voters in Hawai'i, a surprising boost for the Republican president in a state that many Democrats had considered safe for Kerry.

The findings of the Honolulu Advertiser Hawai'i Poll suggest that Hawai'i's four electoral votes are in play with just over a week to go before the election. Nationally, other opinion polls have found that Bush and Kerry are essentially tied for the popular vote.

The Hawai'i Poll, taken among 600 likely voters statewide between Oct. 13 and Monday, had Bush at 43.3 percent and Kerry at 42.6 percent. The margin of error was 4 percentage points.

A large number of voters, 12 percent, said they were still undecided, giving supporters of both candidates hope during the final days of the campaign.

With the race so close, Hawai'i could be a factor in the election, which could energize get-out-the-vote drives across the Islands and increase voter turnout.

[unfrigginreal]

1. Haha

Ohio :shrug: Hawaii

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

[Jack_Dawson]

2. I KNEW Kerry should have gone on a vacation there...

Is it 1 or 2 electoral votes?

[City Lights]

4. It's 4 electoral votes. eom

[HeldsBelds]

5. it's 4 electoral votes

another article

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uslatest/story/0,1282,-4569274,00.html

Neglected Hawaii Emerges As Swing State

DAVID BRISCOE

Associated Press


HONOLULU - Often dismissed as too small, too isolated and too Democratic to worry about in presidential contests, Hawaii suddenly has a close race.

Democrats say Sen. John Kerry still has an edge over President Bush in the contest for Hawaii's four electoral votes, but the race has become awfully tight for their comfort. With late poll closings - 11 p.m. EST on Nov. 2 - and a slow count, Hawaii politicians are talking about offering a dramatic conclusion to what could be an ultra-close national election.

"We may make the difference," said Linda Chu Takayama, campaign manager for Democratic Sen. Daniel Inouye, who is all but assured of victory in his own race for an eighth term. "Surprise, surprise. The polls I've seen show it up and down but always within the margin of error."

The only statewide media poll, more than two months ago, showed Kerry leading Bush, 48-41. Private polling reviewed by strategists for both Kerry and Bush more recently suggests the race is still that close.

Hawaii may not be a big-vote, difference-making tossup state like Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania, but the race is remarkable in a state Democrat Al Gore won by 20 percentage points in 2000 - and one that has been solid blue on most election maps.

[bullimiami]

3. will they just close up shop and post a sign that says

"WE HAVE CLOSED OUR DOORS DUE TO EXTREME INCOMPETENCE, PLEASE GO ELSEWHERE FOR YOUR NEWS."



when kerry wins hawaii by 10+ points?

gore won hawaii by 17 and kerry is up 10 in almost any poll you can find.

[neverforget]

6. Hawaii's in play like New Jersey was in play. Give me a break.

[Jack_Dawson]

7. Link?

[Freddie Stubbs]

34. Several polls have shown that NJ is close, but this in the only one that

has shown HI to be in play.

[olddem43]

8. Hawaii will go to Bush when Idaho goes to Kerry -

or when hell freezes over, whichever occurs first.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Stop Posting Gloom And Doom Poll Posts ....

This is the fourth or fifth doom poll post you have posted...


I'll bet other DUers have seen it...


And tell Karl to fuck himself....

[Bucky]

31. Thank you for controlling our thoughts. Sorry about facing reality

Unpleasant information is not treachery. Curiosity about the world outside of DU is not a form gloom and doom.

Telling people to quit posting news that you don't like is kind of Bush-like, however.

[cubsfan forever]

33. See post #12

Hawaii is not in play and never was. Sorry to spoil your little gloom and doom party. Fun while it lasted, eh?

Professor 2

[CAcyclist]

35. If you don't like it, go

This isn't a public space. You are a guest on this site and you have agreed to follow the rules. If that's unpleasant for you, you would be happier elsewhere.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

40. THE POLL HAS BEEN DEBUNKED AD INFINITUM AND AD NAUSEUM

THE POLL HAS A SAMPLE BASE OF 42% REPUBLICANS AND 31% DEMOCRATS... THIS ISN'T EVEN REMOTELY CLOSE TO THE COMPOSITION OF THE HAWAIIAN ELECTORATE WHICH ACCORDING TO 2000 EXIT POLLS WAS 51% DEMOCRATIC AND 19% REPUBLICAN...

I HAVE RACKED UP 8,000 POSTS ON THIS SITE AND IT'S THE FIRST TIME I EVER SHOUTED.....

THE POSTER IN QUESTION HAS DONE WHAT I ACCUSED HIM ON AT LEAST THREE OCCASIONS...

[troublemaker]

10. 43-42? In Hawaii that missing 15% goes to the Dem Challenger

[LibDemAlways]

11. I'm certain Hawaii is a lock for Kerry. However,

could a Hawaiian DUer please explain how that horrid, snippy little rightwinger snuck into the governor's mansion? She's awful.

[Philostopher]

16. And while they're at it, could the tell me if it's true

that she and/or members of her family own a lot of publications -- like, perhaps, the Honolulu Advertiser? Because I read something about that once, and I can't remember if the source was reliable. If so, that would certainly explain this publication's anxiety to make it look like Hawaii was actually in play, wouldn't it?

[tedoll78]

12. Note the poll weighting.

This poll has 42% of its respondants as Republicans, and only 31% Democrats.

They had to go to THIS length just to get Bush up to 43% in Hawai'i.

HI is Kerry country! And beautiful Kerry country at that!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. This Is A Waste Of Time

And Karl Rove sent the original posters...

[Gaffey Duck]

15. Where's the weighting?

Hmm.

[tedoll78]

17. I had read it at DailyKos.

There's a self-refreshing open topic thread at the top of the page. Someone had posted a link to the internals..

[iwantmycountryback]

13. Remember the polls showing Kerry up by less than 10 in NY?

These are equally bogus. You roll your eyes and laugh at this kind of crap.

[Anarcho-Socialist]

18. It's a poll meant for Kerry to waste time campaigning in Hawaii

[belle]

19. Um, has HI *ever* gone red in a presidential election?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. 1972 and 1984 (nt)

[DemFromMem]

21. Take this VERY seriously :-)

Bush needs to get on Air Force One and get out there now! At least four of five visits are called for in my humble opinion. This represents a major break for the GOP and since Bush has it locked up, an all Hawaii, all the time strategy is called for.

Seriously, he'll have a lot of time to spend in Hawaii about mid-winter.

[BUSHOUT]

22. So what do you think about it...HeldsBelds? n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. He Has To Ask Karl What He Thinks Of It (nt)

[w4rma]

23. While Sen. Kerry should *not* spend any time there. Dems in Hawaii

need to GET THEIR BUTTS IN GEAR and realize that they have work to do out there. This should not even be a thought and, imho, the fact that it is means that Hawaii Dems may be growing a bit complacent.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. I Could Show NY Going Red If I Oversample Republicans...

The poll includes 42% Republicans and 31% Democrats..

What would you expect?

[Zynx]

24. I scream bullshit.

[secular_warrior]

25. According to common sense, Kerry will win Hawaii in a landslide

Gore won Hawaii by 18.4%. There is nothing that can really change that much in four years. The demographics and everything else are probably pretty much the same. Kerry will win it by a similar margin.

An ARG poll in September showed Kerry up by 10 points.

[mzmolly]

26. WTF?!

:eyes:

[girl gone mad]

28. No way.

I seriously doubt that Hawaiians are worried about terrorism, though all of Bush's fear mongering probably does cut into tourism.

I do think Democrats shouldn't take Hawaii for granted, but unless Hawaiians have changed dramatically in the last few years, I can't see them going for Bush.

[amandabeech]

30. Maybe Kerry needs to send a high-level surrogate in to Hawaii.

I'd nominate Ted Kennedy, but I think he'd look pretty bad in shorts and a Hawaiian shirt.

Joe Biden and a couple of Hollywood types? Especially if Kerry should announce Biden as a member of his foreign policy team.

[Bucky]

32. I'll go. (Except I'm not high. Or a surrogate)

Oh, and I need to go to work.

[George_S]

36. Whois?

Whois:

Registrant:
Gannett Pacific Corporation (HONOLULUADVERTISER-DOM)
c/o Gannett Co., Inc. 1100 Wilson Blvd.
Arlington, VA 22234
US

Gannett Pacific Corporation:

With Gannett’s considerable holdings in both newspapers and television stations, it has been an active participant in the debate before the FCC over media consolidation. Not surprisingly, Gannett supports the elimination of the rule that would prevent a company from owning a newspaper and broadcast station in the same market.

http://www.publicintegrity.org/telecom/analysis/CompanyProfile.aspx?HOID=8036

We have another Sinclair.

[mahina]

38. not quite...the Advertiser is supporting Kerry.

Although they did a lot of shitty things in the last few years...underreported the number of us at marches, gave * a complete pass in the runup to the war, they are not Sinclair.
Derrrr.

And as far as getting off our butts we have been working really hard. I don't know what to tell you as to why, but it is tough.

[George_S]

39. I stand corrected

But only meant they, like Sinclair, want Bush to win if only in the sense that they will have more clout with the FCC regulations.

The media machine must be shaking in their boots after the Sinclair fiasco.

[mahina]

41. That's for sure..

:)

[GOPBasher]

37. Ummmm how many polls have there been there?

Let's look at other polls. This simply cannot be right.