Stanley Greenberg: Dems regain enthusiasm edge - Bush down w/Evangelicals

[troublemaker]

Kerry pollster Stanley Greenberg noted two recent trends in the Democracy Corps polls that are worth highlighting. From a Kerry campaign conference call today:

We've also now started showing a consistent, which we have not shown, over many months we have released our numbers which showed the Republicans with a higher favorability rating than the Democrats on our thermometer scores. That is no longer true, we now have found over about four polls with the Democrats now emerging with a higher thermometer score, now perceptibly higher we now have a generic, even though the party ID in this poll is only a 2+ party ID in this survey, we have the generic congressional at +5. So that the partisan environment seems to be improving somewhat and we also have a continuation of a significant majority of voters wanting to vote for change which is the backdrop for this race.

Let me highlight some things about this poll which you may find interesting. We don't know if this is a one time phenomenon but we see a drop in support for the President among white evangelicals. This is a week where Pat Robinson talked about the President saying no casualties in the war and the White House being forced to clamp down on him. We don't know if it is related to it but we will monitor what is happening there. It is obviously very important to his base.

http://www.prospect.org/weblog/

[jefferson_dem]

1. Thanks for this note. An angle that i haven't seen discussed.

When the Robertson story hit, there was talk about why the MSM didn't harp on it a bit more, as if it needed to get out to swing voters as evidence of stubborness. Actually, you have to think that the "chimp calls pat a liar" storyline was by no means lost on those on the evangelical right. They heard it for sure. And without a mammoth fundie turnout for him, chimp is finis'!

On a side note, I was talking to a kind of apolitical friend about why pat would've said that...now. He said, "maybe it's Jesus-envy. Like maybe pat and others are jealous of chimp being THE "chosen one." Weird but i can't come close to wrapping my mind around their wacky world.

[incapsulated]

3. Interesting....

I wouldn't have even hoped the Robertson flap would have an effect, but maybe it did! :)

"On a side note, I was talking to a kind of apolitical friend about why pat would've said that...not. He said, "maybe it's god-envy. Like maybe pat and others are jealous of chimp being THE "chosen one." Weird but i can't come close to wrapping my mind around their wacky world."

Just think of it in terms of being the "purist liberal" and you'll get the gist, heh. Except we don't think that literally makes us Chosen. Just that it should. ;)

[blondeatlast]

13. Not to mention they have to deal with Cheney's lesbian daughter.

It is extremely difficult for us to embrace this type of thinking, but the fact that Cheney has an out lesbian in the family is unthinkable to many of them and thoroughly abhorrent.

This is very apt to keep many of them from the polls, which will work in Kerry's favor.

MANY, many of them will simply be unable to support the B/C ticket now.

[DemocracyInaction]

2. The Pat thing---interesting---work it, Kerry because you could

divide these hatemongers one from the other. They love to hate and exclude others. This could be the opening. Go for it.

[splat]

4. by their works shall ye know them

Like maybe pat and others are jealous of chimp being THE "chosen one."

My gut says it's doubt that Bush is the chosen one, since there were casualties.

If you're in touch with God, you have to produce miracles.

[missouri dem]

5. I think that the robinson flap will have an effect but I think that it is

too soon for it to show up in the polls. I think what is driving down the white evangelical support is the fact that dick chenney has a lesbian daughter. Never underestimate the bigotry of these people. It was not an accident that Kerry and Edwards both brought up mary being a lesbian. cheyney must be a bad dad because every babtist knows that queers are raised not born.

[splat]

6. is this news to them, mo dem?

I thought that was well known after Cheney said it himself.

[missouri dem]

7. does w read the paper?

he is not alone in being ignorant. But the debates averaged 50 million viewers. I have had lots of experience watching baptists and it is a little know fact that they may not like dancing or approve of wearing lipstick and their religious views can be pretty hateful but most of them dearly love to gossip.

[vademocrat]

9. It was a surprise to people who get their news solely from Faux

I've run into several people who were "horrified" that Kerry "outed" Mary Cheney. When I said that he didn't, that Cheney himself talked openly about it in August & that back in 2000 there was notice when Cheney's "openly gay daughter" quit her job to work on his campaign, so Kerry only referred to something that was public knowledge these people have said "well it wasn't on faux!"
My reply was "well sounds like you have an issue with faux news then because it was covered by most of the media.

I think a lot of these folks only hear what they want to hear until it's beaten over their heads the way the "Kerry called Mary Cheney a lesbian" nonsense filled the airwaves after the debate...

:shrug:

[troublemaker]

16. Don't most of them believe in the WMD?

[troublemaker]

12. If true it's funny that they pushed it (not knowing their own base)

[blondeatlast]

14. Exactly. nt

[BillZBubb]

8. The Robertson thing could be huge, but Kerry has to exploit it.

Bush* gets his instructions from God--or so he says. Bush* said there would be no casualties, evidently based on God's input. But, there have been many casualties. Therefore, Bush* is proven to be a false prophet. His works are not the works of God, but of his own agenda.

The only other alternative is that Robertson is lying about what Bush* told him. But, that is not reasonable since Robertson has nothing to gain by lying and he supports Bush*.

I would love to see Kerry call Bush* a false prophet in some context to drive home the point. It would be marvelous!

[w4rma]

21. Bush is the anti-Christ. That's not God who told him there would be no

casualties. That other guy down below did.

[Guaranteed]

10. LOL have we forgotten about Mary Cheney already? nt

[KittyWampus]

11. Funny As All Heck...

AS someone posted here already... it's too soon for Robertson flap to show.

[DeepModem Mom]

15. kick

[Harlan James]

17. Perhaps The Coors Cheney Lesbian Gambit Backfired?

Notice how the GOP isn't working that angle any more?

Perhaps their polling of fundie voting sentiment told them something there as well?

[AP]

20. Exactly. To criticize Kerry for that, they had to remind Evangelicals that

Bush has lesbians on his staff and that one of those lesbians is the daughter of his running mate, who not only knows the details of her sex life but didn't disown her after learning about them.

Yep. They had to stop reminding people about that.

[BlueNomad]

18. Don't foreget how dreadfully

Uninformed many of them are. LOL. It would not surprise me if half of them think Liz Cheney is Mary when they see her up there on the morning news smirking about Teresa.....

[AP]

19. All it took was mentioning Cheney's lesbian daughter. It's Evangelicals'

worst fear, probably -- a gay child.

It probably makes them sick to their stomachs that Cheney has a gay daughter and not only didn't shun her, but even works with her to help get Bush elected.