What are the chances (be honest) that Minnesota will actually go Bush

[4_Legs_Good]

It's looking close in the polls and the report on NPR last night didn't sound hopeful, but I simply don't buy it.

What's the feeling on the ground over there? I mean, is it worth worrying about? I usually just dismiss "bad news" from MN, am I correct in doing so?

How's the GotV efforts going there for our side?

david

[pmbryant]

1. Very small

I heard that NPR story and it was essentially a GOP commercial.

The state is closer than we would like, but that was the case 4 years ago too. And I highly doubt Nader will get anywhere near the support he did in 2000. Kerry should win it by several percentage points.

--Peter

[4_Legs_Good]

3. Cool! I'm glad to hear it.

[AirAmFan]

16. How hard is it to get an absentee ballot and vote early in MN?

Looking at a state-by-state comparison of rules and timetables for early voting (at http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=106x11538 ), I was surprised to find that Minnesota is not one of the places with no-questions-asked early voting by absentee ballot or in person.

What do you have to do to get an absentee ballot in Minnesota? I notice from the table you can get one up to the very last minute. This detail may be very important if Minnesota turns out to have this year's closest election. Nationwide last time, 18 million people registered but never voted, and voting a few days early with an absentee ballot could capture many of those folks this time.

[MNEyeDoc]

2. Zero.

Minnesota will not tip *'s way. Don't believe the polls. Just relax, sit back, and take notes about who said what so that come November third, we know who was with who before the election...and therefore, who can be trusted. I didn't catch the NPR piece...but who cares?

[Love Bug]

5. I agree with you

I don't know ANYONE who voted for Gore who is voting for *. However, I know many people who voted for either Nader or * who are going Kerry. * is toast here.

[AnIndependentTexan]

4. let's see Kerry got 30,000 to 40,000 at a Rally

while Bush only got 10,000 to 15,000 which is most likely less when he visited there. You do the math! I forgot to mention that this was the biggest Rally in the history of them having Rallys. That means that Kerry recieved more people then Clinton or Gore.

[TruthIsAll]

6. Slim and none.. n/t

tia
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel

[rndmprsn]

7. not that i like the guy, but jesse ventura just endorsed kerry

...for what its worth.

[Quadrajet]

8. I don't know...

I don't know any Dems that are voting for * this year.

I DO know a some Repubs that are going to vote for Kerry this year. A couple of my Wife's relatives (in their 60's and 70's) as well as some people in their 20's and 30's. Their reasons range from the war to the economy to healthcare, pretty much across the board.

Now if I can just convince my parents to switch to Kerry, THEN we'll be making some SERIOUS headway.

[ollie3]

11. Close Race, Kerry by a Hair

I, too, heard the NPR "commercial" for Bush. Many of the folks interviewed were from my home town, St Cloud, sorry to say. St Cloud is die-hard Bush. (It is in Stearns County, statistically among the highest places in the country for incest, but that is another story kept hushed in Lake Wobegon) Kerry is making inroads even here, but abortion is the ONLY issue among many folks living in this area. That and bashing gays and anyone not lily white. Think 1950's America, before the civil rights movement. Think of signs "US out of the UN". I haven't seen any "Impeach Earl Warren" signs around, but there may be some I haven't missed....get the picture? Less than one percent black. Un friggin real environment.

Minnesota, demographically, is trending more Republican. It is hard for me, living in the hell hole that St Cloud is, to picture Kerry winning MN, however the Twin Cities are heavily Democratic and I think Kerry will ultimately win.

Ventura's endorsement of Kerry will help among the independents here. My prediction, Kerry by 2. But only if the Dems get a big turnout.

[4_Legs_Good]

13. Woah! I 1/2 of my ancestors hail from Minnesota, so I like to think of it

as a progressive haven, but I guess that's not the case anymore.

My family is very Catholic (me too), and would, I'm sorry to say, probably be among those suburban voters. My grandparents were first generation Americans who came over directly from Belgium to Minnesota, then moved to California. My grandma died at 99 a couple years ago a blue dog Democrat, but had she still been in MN, I'm not sure.

It seemed to me in that NPR story that everyone who was pro-Bush was basically saying "I'm afraid of the future of Minnesota because it's not going to be all white." Kinda freaked me out. I think the "all white" days are over in this country, so Minnesotans better get used to it. It's nice living in California, where it's already the case, and though there's still anti-Mexican bigotry running rampant, it's in in a vocal minority. Today I don't think Prop 187 (a horribly racist prop on the ballot 8 years ago or so) would pass, which is nice.

Keep up the good work out there, and get out that vote!

david

[MsAnthropy]

9. None. Nada. Zip. Zilch.

We're electing Kerry for Paul.

[peacetalksforall]

10. Supposedly the machines are safe, but I still can't understand how

Coleman won over Mondale.

[Quadrajet]

12. Mondale was no Wellstone.

I think the shock of Wellstone being suddenly out of the running was just too much for most MN Dems. I still think that Mondale should have won, but maybe most of the Dem voters thought "eh, no Wellstone...what's the use, I'm staying home."

[ollie3]

14. It was Wellstone's Memorial Service that let Coleman win

The service was televised and one of the speeches turned into a political rallying cry that turned off many voters, who thought it was a cheap shot at a memorial service to insert politics. The race was close between Wellstone and Coleman, but it was trending Wellstone when he died. Mondale did his best, but it was difficult task this close to an election. The deciding factor that turned things was the memorial service, however. This did not sit well with Minnesotans.

[Quadrajet]

15. Excellent point, one that I had completely forgotten.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

17. Not the memorial service so much as the way the

Republicanites went to every possible media outlet and bitched about it and played poor Rick Kahn's speech over and over.