Craig Crawford just said on CBS that Bush needs to be polling >3-4 points

[flpoljunkie]

ahead of Kerry in order to win because the pollsters always underestimate the Democratic turnout--particularly minorities.

Crawford also pointed out that 10 of the 11 polls in 2000 were wrong, and that the Democrats were ahead in new voter registration all across the country--in some states way ahead.

He also noted that Florida voting was already a mess!

[cthrumatrix]

1. funny how NEWS channels like CNN can't say that.... they are whores

it's all about corporatism and $$$$$....screw the people and their rights...we have had ENOUGH!

[Guaranteed]

2. No way! That sounds like real analysis.

Not possible. I don't believe it. :P

[flpoljunkie]

10. On Imus, Crawford said Bush needed to be a good 4 or 5 pts ahead to win!

Crawford also predicted that Kerry would win as the polls indicate that the country seems to want a new President!

[leftchick]

3. Thank God someone has finally pointed this out...

kudos to Craig! :)

[Gabi Hayes]

4. last night on Olbermann, Larry ODonnell said something similar:

that Bush will LOSE if he maintains his current approx. 48 percent, because it ALWAYS happens that the incumbent gets almost zero bump from his last poll number, whether it's a presidential, senate, congressional race. he says it's a given that the challenger picks up just about the entire leftover vote.

so, if he's right, that meanst that if Nader gets less than three percent, Bush is shrimp toast

does anybody think he'll get MORE than the 2.7 he got last time?

or will the schwing state horror, ala Florida, happen again, there, and in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Oregon, etc?

[Shopaholic]

9. Yep-Lawrence O'Donnell was very certain that Kerry was

going to win. It was a great interview to watch! :bounce:

[9119495]

17. O'Donnell was great on McLaughlin this weekend.

He totally stuffed the conservatives on the "lesbian" thing.

"If it is a political trick, the Cheney's et. al. are telling everyone that bigoted people may be turned off by the fact their daughter is a lesbian and may not vote for Bush-Cheney...is that really what they want to say?" (Paraphrasing)

[KlatooBNikto]

5. In fact, I even doubt that the phone surveys call minority voters for

their opinions.

[ClintonTyree]

6. Polls had Bush ahead of Gore by 10% in 2000...............

and we all know how THAT turned out. If it was for the CONservatively appointed Supreme Whores, President Gore would be comfortably winning his second term right now.

[unfrigginreal]

7. A talking head that knows what he's talking about

How unusual.

[calimary]

8. kkkarl rove supposedly said something similar the other day.

He said that bush has to be ahead by three to four points by election day in order to cover any undecideds that break for Kerry. Made me wonder if he's getting internal polling that has bad news about the undecideds. If he thinks this, that means the undecideds are OURS.

[Beetwasher]

14. Thus The Bogus Gallup Poll

The Gallup poll is cover for this very fact..."Bush WAS ahead by 8 points! Look at Gallup!", rig the machines and they're all set....

[AlCzervik]

11. I heard him on Imus this morning

i dont watch him usually but i couldnt sleep. Crawford said his Dad is working at a phonebank for Kerry, both parents are diehard dems.

[michigandem2]

12. heard him on imus this am and I was happy he is admitting

what we know...all the news in the polls are BAD for bush..I saw a news report on CNN citing the abc news poll saying terrorism is thrid on the list..BEHIND the economy and IRAQ that is not good for Bush...he is running around screaming about terrorism..and ignoring what the people care about???

I like Craig Crawford..and he is most likely correct---I was watching Imus this am and all the other pundits were saying the polls show Bush witha lead...but never reminded anyone about the polls in 2000..I was yelling at my tv about the gallup poll showing how inaccurate it was...

[DemocracyInaction]

13. He predicted Kerry will win just a few minutes ago on Imus

Besides what you quoted here he says that he has been traveling around in these battleground states and than the Dems have a great, very professional machine out there to target and get out the votes (he says they know where to find them). BUT, he says the republicans are trying to do the same but are no where close---he says they basically are good at turning out people at Bush rallies but little else. Said his old father is so excited about this election that he went down and got the voter lists for his precint and is out knocking on doors to get people out to vote for Kerry!!!!

[Ladybast]

15. And also to ease our worry check out

this blog which analyses the actual way the polls work. Shows that Kerry is considerably stronger than the quoted figures indicate:

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/

[Bush was AWOL]

16. Anyone Remember Ohio From 2000?

Bush was ahead in some polls by 14% and won by less than 4%. I'm almost positive that Kerry will take Ohio at this point. I talked to my parents the other day, and my dad is a huge political junkie, they said they've never seen support for Democrat in an election like this ever before in Ohio.

[DinahMoeHum]

18. Put it this way - If the incumbent POTUS is not running over 50%

by this time...stick a fork in him - he's done.

:kick: