YES!!!!!!!!!!!!! Kerry's EV job not that difficult, in fact *excellent*

[montana500]

Looking at all the BG polls lately, and playing around with MSGOP's electoral "pick em", things are looking very nice for Kerry.

It looks like PA will be Kerry's. All he needs to do is win Ohio or Florida and the race is his. He is polling VERY WELL in both.

Minnesota is looking like it will go Kerry. Iowa will go to Kerry by a hair. Wisconsin is looking like it will go Bush. All Kerry has to do folks is get either Ohio or Florida. THATS IT. Michigan is ging kerry, NJ is kerry, NH is kerry, ORegon and WA are kerry.


OHIO or FLORIDA.
We need OHIO IR FLORIDA TO WI THE ELECTION.

Which will it be? Kerry will win one. But which?????

[alittlelark]

1. He'll win both of them by the #'s

the question is how many will be counted vs tossed?

[eddiebrowns]

2. Ohio Ohio Ohio

I've seen things that I've never seen before. We had our county Democratic dinner the other night and had around 250 people there-the joke always used to be that we didn't need a room bigger than a phone booth, and now we have 250 people?? I'm so proud *sniff*

[Eurobabe]

18. Kerry will take OH

I feel it in my bones.

[mondohondo]

31. Nice Turnout in Mentor for Edwards Yesterday

Even our local, right-wing, scandal-rag was forced to admit that Edwards packed the house. There even was an article about Congressman LaTourette's (Repuke-OH)dalliance with a lobbyist who used to be on his congressional staff who now lobbys the same House transportation committee to which Mr. LaTourette belongs. Conflict of interest? None whatsoever, says the Congressman, even though he divorced the woman who bore him 4 children to take up with his new "serious relationship".

[smiley_glad_hands]

3. Both eom

[SlavesandBulldozers]

4. my guess is FLA

there are reports though that Oregon doesnt look like a sure thing.

[Arugula Latte]

12. There was a recent poll that had Kerry up 9 in Oregon

Don't worry; Oregon will go Kerry in a big way.

If Kerry loses Oregon, he'll have lost big elsewhere anyway.

Oregon was so close last time because Nader got a lot of votes here.

[shamrock]

5. Ohio looks good

Good chance in Ohio....look at this:
http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0410/15/pzn.01.html
(About halfway down the page)

MERCURIO: The Bush campaign knows that they need Ohio. I mean, as we've all heard the statistic, historically no Republican has ever won the White House without winning Ohio. So I talked to -- or we talked earlier today to Matthew Dowd, who's Bush's chief pollster, who urged us to leave Ohio in the Bush column. We decided not to do that. He made two points. He said, first, tracking polls that they've have shown that Bush has gained actually since the debate, which is hard to believe because most of the polls that I've seen for the three debates show that ...

ZAHN: So is that wishful thinking on his part?

MERCURIO: And he had this other sort of strange theory, Paula, that I thought was sort of interesting. He said that because Kerry is pulling out of West Virginia, which is located next to Ohio, we should still leave Ohio in their column. I'm not sure I follow the logic of that, because we have obviously polling that shows the contrary.

[liberal N proud]

9. I hope so, I need a pick me up after canvassing

I must have happened along some people that have been brain washed or some damn thing.
I got the rudest nastiest receptions today. I had to quit for the day. I am burnt out, toast.
People slammed the door on my face, one lady started to yell at me about the Lesbian remark. I was just exhausted.
I hit 30 homes today and the closest thing to positive I had was the lady who felt it was a private matter.
It got to the point that I was hoping no one was home.
My other experiences were just the opposite, I was shocked.

[lancdem]

21. Were these people Dems?

[MockSwede]

24. Potholes in the road

Know what you mean. But as you said, it wasn't your usual reception.

When, as a kid, our mom would ring a ship's bell on the porch to get us home for dinner in summer. Usually, I'd be barefoot and head home on the run. To beat my sisters, I'd cut through a neighbors' yards. SOMETIMES, the canine landmines were more plentiful or hidden in tall grass.... Needless to say, it was a 'slip-sliding away' experience requiring a garden hose for cleanup!

So just think of this day as a backyard disaster from my childhood!

I'll be out calling and canvassing later, myself.

[PittLib]

6. both.

seriously. * screwed Ohio on jobs ... and Florida on the 2000 election and healthcare.

on edit:
I think people will turn out in record numbers and the repugs won't know what hit them!

[jefferson_dem]

7. WI is very much in play. Polls show back and forth.

http://www.race2004.net/states.php?state=wi

[ewagner]

10. Agree

We've gone through two shipments of signs and are waiting for our third.......have a "waiting list" of 35-40 people...This is in our Repub leaning city....

It's looking better.

[popstalin]

28. However, I read somewhere

That some Repug headquarters (I can't recall which state) is paying money for yard signs.

It was a thread here somwhere...

[Lefta Dissenter]

14. I still think WI will be blue

Not that I'm getting a biased picture, living just outside of Madison ;) but the young people have really been activated, and I sure as hell can't name one person who voted Gore last time, who would either switch to bush or not vote... and the GOTV efforts have been huge. And Russ is doing so great that the repugs are pulling their money out of Michels' campaign... I just can't see this state going for bush.

[Kierkegaard]

8. Scrub won't get WI.

I can't see it happening.

[rockymountaindem]

11. Kerry may yet win WI.

People who live there could tell you more about it, but consider this: someone here pointed out the other day that if we take all the Gore states, plus NH (which is in the bag) and Arkansas (where we're tied and Bush is doing poorly), we get exactly 270 EV. Now I can't think of any disenfranchisement issues or BBV that may crop up in either of those places, so I think that is another route that looks promising for us.

[featherman]

13. Sorry but it is nuts to cede WI to Bush

DEMS have won WI's electoral votes for four straight elections.

[featherman]

22. throw this recent poll into the WI mix

Market Shares Corp.: Kerry 47%, Bush 43%, Nader 2%, Undecided 8%
(conducted Oct. 8-11; margin of error ± 4.4%)

Jeepers, a few small sample, likely biased, or incompetent state polls showing Bush "might" be leading and some DUer's are ready to cede a DEM state like Wisconsin to the GOP. What's up with THAT?
Where's your loyalty to a LOYAL DEM BASE STATE?

On Wisconsin!!!

[Laelth]

32. Good for you!

You're right. Shame on us! Rock on, Wisconsin.

-Laelth

[RDANGELO]

15. My gut tells me Kerry will win both.

All he needs is a good turnout and all the votes counted.

[tedoll78]

16. My current prediction:

Gore states + Ohio + New Hampshire + Colorado4 = 288EVs.

Most vulnerable Gore states: Iowa & Wisconsin.

Still, I give them both to Kerry. First, historical trends point in our direction. Second, our ground game this time around is superior - we're ENERGIZED. Third, new voters favor Kerry by as much as 20% (according to Newsweak). Fourth, undecideds break for the challenger.

Fifth, most swing state polls had the race essentially tied before Election Day 2000, and yet all of them swung to Gore by small margins.

[Hawkeye-X]

30. Try colorado 9

Since kerry is trending blue here and Chimp is a moron and most of the Rethugs down in CS will be staying home. I will venture down south tomorrow and get a feeling.

Also, if Amendment 36 is rejected (which I plan to vote no if Kerry is trending blue), Kerry earns all 9.

Hawkeye-X

[The Wielding Truth]

17. Wisconsin has a quiet understanding of freedom. They will vote Kerry.

[Cheesehead]

20. That attitude was evident last night at Kerry's Appleton, WI rally

Even though this is traditionally a highly Republican area (Bush beat Gore by 9% in 2000), 10,000+ people braved the elements (40 degree temps and intermittent rain) to see Kerry, and he was awesome. With the heavily Democratic areas of the state participating with the same vigor, I think B*sh is in for a real nasty surprise here on 11/2.

[Renew Deal]

19. I can't imagine Bush wins Wisconsin.

I just can't imagine it.

[KharmaTrain]

23. Bunnypants Dead End Game: Ohio

This is the state this regime will rue they screwed over, first during his tenure and then throughout the campaign. I expect such heavy turn out of Democrats in Ohio that it will swamp the over-polled Repugnicans.

Their campaign plays like it's all over the map, it isn't. They've been driven from Michigan and Minnesota, now Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (yes, Wisconsin) and soon the last stand will be Ohio. I'm even hearing there's serious thoughts of getting out of Florida as the voter anger is growing as the aid doesn't get to those I-4 counties.

As Lawrence O'Donnell (the man is a genius) noted last night, all these buzzwords and antics this regime is pulling is to energize the small majority of Repugnicans in the state...but this assumes the same Repugnicans who voted for Bunnypants in 2000 are going to do so this time plus the added fundies. Think about that scenario a minute and you'll see how the polling is screwing them over more than us :evilgrin:

Keep the faith, and work harder than ever. The goal is in sight, don't let anyone say we're not gonna get it! This regime is gonna go!

[DemFromMem]

25. Don't forget Colorado

If there referendum passes, we'll pick up a few EVs there. Could get all the marbles if turnout is solid.

[lithalle]

26. Please don't give up on WI...

Want to see a quick hello! I'm new to the forum and have enjoyed lurking the last few weeks.

I live in Wisconsin and just came home from canvassing for Kerry. I'd say our ratio has been at least 3 to 1 in Kerry's favor every time we've gone out. I also want to add that this is the first time my husband and I have ever done something like this. We are managing a team of 5 volunteers, and at least one of those volunteers is new to this kind of thing. People aren't going to let GWB walk away with another election. We are fighting hard to make the state WI turn blue on election night. :-) Go Kerry!

[newyawker99]

27. Hi lithalle!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[RevCheesehead]

29. Nice to have you with us!

Madison is a Dem. stronghold, but beware of the rural counties.
Milwaukee is strongly Dem, but the outlying counties are heavy repuke. And Milwaukee talk radio is all conservative crap. I think we (all of WI) SOUND more conservative than we are.
But I think the big question is:

***WHERE IS TOMMY THOMPSON????****
If bush is gonna take WI, why has Tommy been so noticably silent??

I live in Kewaunee Co. - and it can be depressing at times. But this traditionally repug area is showing fewer shrub signs than I expected. In fact, I've noticed a lot of Mark Green (repug congress), but very, very few bush!

Today I was up in Door Co. - and what an incredible collection of Kerry signs!!!!!!! Not only Sturgeon Bay, but also Bailey/Egg Harbor, and lots of the rural areas. Today's trip lifted me up, despite the 38 degree temp....and the rain trying very hard to turn into snow.

Oops - it's snowing NOW! :)

[Laelth]

33. Love the enthusiasm ...

but, I just don't see any way that Shrub can lose Florida. That state will be stolen again. And Ohio's not a sure thing, anyway. Didn't Diebold (kind Ohioan and maker of your voting machines) promise to do everything in his power to get Bush elected?

We need WI, IA, MO, AK, WV, NH, NM, NV.

Just not counting chickens before they hatch.

-Laelth