NY Times EV has K at 221, B at 213, with 104 In Balance

[bigpathpaul]

I'm pretty sure this is first time NYT has ever had Kerry ahead. I know this poll is usually like a week behind, but I just really pleasantly surprised.

http://www.nytimes.com/packages/html/politics/2004_ELECTIONGUIDE_GRAPHIC/

[saracat]

1. Well it says updated today, but it is the onlyEV map that says this!

Hope it's true!

[featherman]

2. This is a pretty good map but

I'd definitely put Oregon in the "lean Kerry" column. He'll win Oregon by about 5% and only an Effete Easterner would think that Oregon is a swing state. Ain't gonna happen. GOP pipe dream.

MN, NH and NM should also be shown as "lean Kerry" if you're gonna have MO, AR, WV as "lean Bush". Kerry is at least as likely to take those three as Bush is to take the other three.

Charley Cook sez IA, NV, and FL are about as even as you can get. Good news for Kerry since our ground force is stronger and more motivated.

Cook also leans CO and WI to Bush but I disagree about WI based on it's voting DEM for the past four elections. (I think pollsters are misreading WI in some fundamental way that I haven't figured out yet. One poll within the past week showed Kerry up by +7. Go figure.)