Frank Luntz-----bleak outlook for the Bush candidacy

[59millionmorons]

Financial Times
It's time for Bush to get worried
By Frank Luntz
Published: October 14 2004

The big story of the US presidential election up to Thursday was how few undecided voters there were. Now the final presidential debate is over, these voters have essentially made up their minds - and it is George W.Bush who should be worried.

If John Kerry is elected the 44th president, it will be because of a single night in Miami, Florida, when he came to debate and Mr Bush came to - well, no one is quite sure. The double-digit lead that Gallup polls, long considered an authority for presidential polling, gave Mr Bush after the Republican convention was fully erased by that fateful 90-minute confrontation.

Step by step, debate by debate, John Kerry has addressed and removed many remaining doubts among uncommitted voters. My own polling research after each debate suggests a rather bleak outlook for the Bush candidacy: many who still claim to be "undecided" are in fact leaning to Mr Kerry and are about ready to commit.

Subscription only

[KittyWampus]

1. But Kerry Called Mary A LESBIAN

:cry:

[59millionmorons]

5. That's funny

Mary called herself a lesbian. Where is the breaking news(sarcasm)

[Cha]

18. To Lesbians!

:toast:

[Moderator]

2. DemDem

Please post a link and be advised Democratic Underground copy right rules require an excerpt of no longer than 4 paragraphs.

Thank you

[irancontra]

3. total BS - luntz is a miserable slimy reslug.

I don't care if he thinks Bush is toast.. I'm not ready to call it for us yet.

[PA Democrat]

8. Jeez, Bush could audition for a sequel to Planet of the Apes,

and with that face, he wouldn't even need a mask.

[janx]

4. Whoops, too late, Frankie!

Only a little over a couple of weeks to go--he can't change course now!

[PA Democrat]

6. Luntz is such a fool

"On certain key issues, Mr Bush would do well to position himself in contrast to the "special interests" in Washington who oppose reform."

Someone should tell Luntz that Bush would require extensive surgery to separate himself from "special interests".

[lancdem]

7. I hope this is true

[Mz Pip]

9. Let the makeover begin

THe true Bush was present during the first debate and certainly during part of the second. Bush came across like a smarmy preacher during the third debate. If this is really what the country wants we are in serious trouble.

Earth to Luntz: Bush can't offer a plan for anything because his whole presidency has been smoke and mirros and endless soundbites designed to keep America cowering in fear of any change. Given the way things are going that appears to be enough to assure a second term.

Bush lost all three debate but it doesn't seem to matter.

MzPip
:dem:

[dogtag]

10. I wonder how Frank, the really bad rug man, feels about Shrub's

stump speeches that are getting loopier by the day. He's morphed into Pappy Yokum about to become Gabby Hayes. This may play to the base, but I really doubt that fence sitters are going to be impressed as George "Zell" Bushkin trundles along to the finish line.

[grasswire]

11. Ha!

What's next? Walter Brennan?

Actually, there is a resemblance.

[dogtag]

12. Yep, when he gimps to the podium with a pronounced limp

we'll hit the Grandpa McCoy phase. Stay tuned.

[Gabi Hayes]

22. GABI Hayes is next, of course

worship at my throne, all ye westerners!

[Bandit]

27. Gabby Hayes....and I thought I was an old fart

I haven't heard that name since I was a child in the eighteen hundreds.

[shockingelk]

13. Luntz propagates a myth

"The double-digit lead that Gallup polls, long considered an authority for presidential polling, gave Mr Bush after the Republican convention was fully erased by that fateful 90-minute confrontation."

Kerry was on the upswing going into the first debate.

In a TIME poll which ended 6 days before the debate, Jr's lead was cut from 12 points to 4.

In the TIPP poll, ending three days before the first debate, Bush's 3 point lead was reversed to a 1 point Kerry lead.

In the WP poll immediately before the first debate, Kerry shaved off 3 points from Bush's lead and it stayed there for 5 days after the 1st debate.

[PATRICK]

24. Bush was in trouble when Kerry took Iowa

That was when their attack machine and control went down in flames. Since then their strategy has been rushed, on life support from the media, single-minded, simple minded and eventually not only ineffective but driving the downward spiral. That Gallup poll even is unacknowledged as fantasy swill adds impetus to the Bush decline which under less dramatic conditions would have been slower if not the standoff the press still tries to tout when the chips are down.

Of course the injustice might have triumphed. Maybe it still can against the clear majority forming for Kerry. Blowback has in fact put more passion and numbers in Kerry's pocket. It may be why the Kerry team is not too eager to declare inevitability and keep the excitement high, risking the unlucky moment when the Rove black magic might actually work.

[DrFunkenstein]

14. Bush Even Had A Late Convention To Stem the Natural Decline

Of his numbers. Didn't matter. The Bush campaign was stuck in a tired attack/blindly optimistic format, incapable of adjusting to changing circumstances. At the same time, Kerry came in ready for a fight and erased the slippage caused by the Swift Boat fiasco.

Kerry is willing to admit mistakes and listen to suggestions before adjusting decisively to the current climate. Bush, well, you know...

[yellowcanine]

15. Bush lost this race when he made the decision to make the election about

Kerry. An incumbent has to FIRST make the case for being reelected -unless the challenger is so bad that he scares the voters. Clearly Kerry has laid the Bush cartoon Kerry to rest and most voters and I would say even many Bush voters are now at at ease with the idea of a Kerry presidency.

[Cha]

21. I think bush lost this election when

he Invaded Iraq..it was Wrong..as have been all his policies. I'm just happy the American voters have started smelling something rotten.

[The Chronicler]

16. Dick Morris said on O'Reilly last night that he thinks Bush will lose

if nothing dramatic happens in the next two weeks.

[Liberal Gramma]

17. We should be worried about Morris

He's been dead wrong in every election. In this case, I hope he has divine guidance in his guesswork

[yellowcanine]

19. Dick Morris? Feh! I don't trust his "finger in the wind" opinion. He is

setting us up to say - "WOW! This changes everything!" when the Red Terra Alert is announced 7 days before the election.

[DemocracyInaction]

20. If THIS guy says so, then it's time to break open the liquor cabinet

and start the weekend off with a roar!!!! And, now, if the Red Sox could just get their heads out of their asses..............

[Gabi Hayes]

23. this is so clearly a con of some sort

Luntz has been one of Bush's most valuable ops.

Unless there's been some sort of falling out (getting bounced from his 'influential' slot on Hardball?), I'd be willing to be there's something fishy about this whole story.

might it have something to do with the aforementioned Gallup poll, and how he ludicrously pumped up its own influence? Everybody here is well aware of how far off it was in 2000, and how suspect its methodology is.

maybe he's polishing that particular turd for when it goes heavily Bush in the next few days or so, trying to get people to think it's the one to follow.

dunno what else to make of that, other than I don't trust him as far as I could fly on that magic carpet on his head

[AmerDem]

25. I don't care what shit Luntz spews, he's a partisan hack at best!

at worst he is a corrupt manipulating fascist!

[calimary]

26. Got a link? I'd love to see the whole story.

Heck, I'd even register for it.

It's still such a vivid memory for me - watching him on the MSNBC postgame show after both conventions. His face and his demeanor was just downright cocky, not only as expected when he talked to a roomful of "undecided voters" after the big speeches at the republi-CONvention, but even after Edwards spoke at the Dem convention. Voters in that case remained on the fence about Edwards and you could tell Frank Luntz regarded this, deep down, as very good, comforting news. He was upbeat, personable, smiling a lot, clever, and glib.

But then, John Kerry himself spoke.

The voters in Luntz's room were moved by Kerry, and impressed. The dynamics in that room, among those people changed. And so did Luntz's demeanor. He was sober as an undertaker. Very somber and straight-faced. Very brow-furrowed. He was visibly concerned. You could tell that what he was hearing from these people, as they voiced their reaction to Kerry's speech, he did NOT like.

[jsw_81]

28. But Kerry is a Massachoositz librul!

He even knows Teddy Kennedy! The one from Massachoositz! Left-bank! Librul! Tax and spend! Librul! Want any wood? </dubyaspeak>