Using Election Scorecard--let's predict when Kerry will claim victory

[WI_DEM]

Ok according to the election scorecard, the first state we will hear from will be Indiana at 6pm et (all times will be eastern) this will go to Bush.

6pm--Indiana--Bush (11ev)

7pm five states will report in:
Georgia--probable Bush (15ev)
Kentucky--probable Bush (8ev)
South Carolina--probable Bush (8ev)
Vermont--certainly Kerry (3ev)
Virginia--I think the early returns will show this is a toss-up and won't be able to make a projection until they get real results.

Totals
Bush--42 electoral votes
Kerry--3 electoral votes
Toss-up 13 (VA)

7:30pm three states report in
North Carolina--I think this will also be a toss up despite polls showing Bush ahead (15 ev)
Ohio--This state is another bellweather, the early returns will have it "too close to call"--(20 ev)
West Virginia--Again, this is a state Dems want badly--I think it will be close--too close to call (5 ev)

8pm--lots of states 14 states plus DC report in:
Connecticut--Kerry (7 ev)
Delaware--Kerry (3 ev)
DC--Kerry (3 ev)
Florida--Too close to call, 27 ev
Illinois--Kerry, 21 ev
Maine--Kerry, 4 ev
Maryland--Kerry, 10 ev
Massachusetts--Kerry, 12 ev
Mississippi--Bush, 6 ev
Missouri--Too close to call, 11 ev
New Hampshire--I think this will go Kerry, by a fair margin, 4 ev
New Jersey--Kerry, 15 ev
Oklahoma--Bush, 7 ev
Pennsylvania--Kerry is breaking out here, I predict he will win it solidly--21 ev
Tennessee--Bush, 11 ev

Totals:
Kerry: 103 ev
Bush: 66 ev
Too Close to Call: 91 ev

8:30 pm
Arkansas--too close to call--polls in Arkansas have been very close.

9pm--14 states close polls
Alabama--Bush, 9 ev
Arizona--Too close to call, 10 ev
Colorado-Too close to call, 9 ev
Kansas--Bush, 6 ev
Louisiana--Bush, 9 ev
Michigan--Kerry, 17 ev
Minnesota--Kerry, 10 ev
Nebraska--Bush, 5 ev
New York--Kerry, 31 ev
Rhode Island--Kerry, 4 ev
South Dakota--Bush, 3 ev
Texas--Bush, 34 ev
Wisconsin--Too close to call, 10 ev
Wyoming--Bush, 3 ev

Totals:
Kerry--165 ev
Bush--135 ev
Too close to call: 126, ev

10 pm:
Iowa--I'm saying Kerry will win, 7 ev
Montana--Bush, 3 ev
Nevada--Too close to call, 5 ev
New Mexico--Kerry, 5 ev
Utah, Bush, 5 ev

Totals:
Kerry: 177 ev
Bush: 143 ev
Too close to call: 131 ev

11 pm:
California: Kerry, 55 ev
Hawaii, Kerry, 4 ev
Idahao, Bush, 4 ev
North Dakota, 3 ev
Oregon, Kerry, 7 ev
Washington, Kerry, 11 ev

Totals:
Kerry: 254 ev (16 short of victory)
Bush: 150 ev (120 short of victory)
Too close to call: 131 ev.

12 am:
Alaska--Bush: 3 ev

Kerry: 254
Bush 153
Too close: 131

Now some of the states which I say are too close to call will be called during this time, but here is a list of them:
NC
Ohio
WVA
Florida
Missouri
Arkansas
Arizona
Colorado
Wisconsin
Nevada
Virginia

The way I see it Kerry will almost certainly win 254 ev while Bush is a lock with 153--that means Bush has to win almost all of these toss ups to win while Kerry can win it by taking either Ohio or Florida or a combination of smaller states like Wisconsin, Nevada and West Virginia.

for your election scorecard go to
http://www.spacerad.com/electoral
Too close to call:

[benburch]

1. Kerry will likely not declare victory until Thursday.

Unless the totals are much more skewed than shows here, I think that Wednesday will be full of allegations of fraud and demands for recounts.

[Parche]

2. election

Kerry has to win NH plus all of the Gore states that he won in 2000
to win
AR is looking like it is going to be ours
TN is looking good
OH while still a toss up is a great prize

[WI_DEM]

3. need more than NH

some of the Gore states lost ev in the 2000 census. Ohio, I think is more possible than either Arkansas or Tn.

[GreenArrow]

10. How about all of 'em?

Kerry wins NH, Ohio, Arkansas, and Tennessee. If "AR" in the post above stands for Arizona, well, he'll win that one too.

[Barney Rocks]

4. usually Oregon

is slowest to be called, because everyone votes with paper ballots--so it takes longer to tabulate them and there is no exit polling to help make predictions on. Right now 3 weeks out, several polls show it close in Oregon--so I don't think they will call that one quickly. (I think it will be Kerry's but I don't think they will call it until Wednesday sometime).

[Downtown Hound]

5. Nov. 2nd is going to be quite a day

I can sense my anxiety already.

[MAlibdem]

6. I read somewhere that Kerry internals showed him with a distinct lead

in NH and FL. If he can keep those, he's in a REALLY good position.

[Renew Deal]

9. If he gets those

It will be an early night. :)

[shivaji]

7. This election will surprise all, and will be called by 9pm Pacific time.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

11. I agree with you

My gut says this will be over quickly, with Kerry winning both FL and OH. Of course the Repubs will demand a recount but I don't think it will be close enough to recount.

It will be all over but the whinin'.

[Renew Deal]

8. Man, you will know a lot about this race when Ohio closes.

And it closes early.

[Vincardog]

12. Can we map out the Diebold states vs Democratic results?

What will happen when every manual counting state goes straight Dem. And every eVoting state goes Republican?

[Zero Gravitas]

13. 11pm ET

John Forbes Kerry will be the President-Elect by 11pm ET. Massive turnout will be make close states go solidly for Kerry and even a few "safe" Bush states may go Kerry. Bush will not have the requisite honor, dignity, or courage to give a concession speech, however.