Right Wing pollsters are worried about a Dean upset over *

[mzmolly]

http://www.moore-info.com/Poll_Updates/2004%20Election%20%20Why%20Dean%20can%20win%20Sept%2003.htm

~snip~

Howard Dean has many qualities that make him a strong candidate, but the best way to judge his ability to win is simply to do the math. Below is a list of states we believe Howard Dean could win. We have broken them down into three columns. The first column is basically the Democrat base. The second column consists of Democrat leaners/swing states. The third column is Republican leaning states where Democrats have won in the recent past and could do so again.

See chart at link...

As you see, Dean can win even without Florida. Furthermore, of the 23 states that make up these 270 electoral votes, Bush only won two in 2002, squeaking by in Nevada but only getting 49.5% of the total vote, and winning West Virginia with 51.9%. With no significant opposition to Harry Reid in the Senate race and the nuclear repository issue alive and kicking, Nevada is going to be tough for the President. And West Virginia is a very Democrat state, where Dean’s willingness to work with the NRA on gun owners’ rights will go a long way toward deflecting the “liberal” charge.


Today there are four states that we would put in the lean Republican column but these states -- Florida, Missouri, New Hampshire and Ohio -- could go either way.

The remaining states give Bush a base of 206 electoral votes to start. Basically, it will be tough for any of the current candidates to wrest these states away from the President barring any catastrophic developments. Oh sure, if Wesley Clark is a Veep choice he might make Arkansas competitive, but overall, Bush will have a solid South through the Great Plains and Mountain States. So Bush starts with 206 and Dean starts with 183. Judge for yourself whether or not you think Dean could be formidable in the states above. Because as Al Gore learned in 2000, the popular vote doesn’t elect the President. The Electoral College does, and when you do the math, a Dean candidacy is a lot more realistic than people think.

The difference between Howard Dean and the rest of the Democrat candidates is that Dean comes across as a true believer to the base but he will not appear threatening to folks in the middle. More than any other candidate in the field, he will be able to present himself as one who cares about people (doctor), who balances budgets (governor), and who appears well grounded while looking presidential. To be sure, he doesn’t look that way to the GOP base, but that has no bearing on the election, because they will never vote for him anyway. He can appeal to the middle and Republicans can ignore his candidacy at our peril. We are whistling past the graveyard if we think Howard Dean will be a pushover."

~end snip~

The Republican point of view. Gives a bit of perspective as to why they so fear Dean.

[frustrated_lefty]

1. Good golly, mzmolly

I like your posts. It's time for a change.

[DFLforever]

2. And I think they'll revise his chances upward as he survives

the onslaught from his Democratic opponents, who are so strong in taking on a fellow Dem but so weak in the face of Bush himself.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

3. Hmmm.

...so strong in taking on a fellow Dem but so weak in the face of Bush himself.

And there it is.

[slinkerwink]

4. yep---you got it.

[HFishbine]

14. Ah-hem

What he said.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

5. The Republican View Meant for Public Consumption

This has been posted dozens of times before. It is clearly spin.

DTH

[Don Claybrook]

15. Define 'clearly'

Is this judgement objective or subjective. Just because you claim it doesn't mean it's true.

[xultar]

38. It's o.k. to post RW spin if it is positve for Dean but not if it is

negative.

That's what I get from what I see around here.

It's funny!

[thinkahead]

43. which just means

the Republicans are just as confused as the rest of you by Dean. Dean is a maverick, he's the McCain Bush did not want to face. Someone who is in his face. McCain started too late, and couldn't get his internet operation to deliver for him - but was a major threat to Bush and his spin machine. Dean will slaughter Bush, because Bush does poorly when called on his sh!t.

[tnlefty]

6. From a FRUSTRATED southerner

My spouse mentioned just last night, "I hope that whoever the Democratic nominee turns out to be will kick Bush's* ass without winning a single southern state".

Yep.

[Zomby Woof]

7. oh never mind, it's like

beating my head against a wall of Kool Aid.

[rumguy]

32. "a wall of Kool Aid"

that's good.

[Scott Lee]

42. Jell-o?

[Julien Sorel]

8. This piece was written in September, when they were still pumping

Howard up.

So perhaps a more accurate title would be 'Right Wing pollsters used to say they worried about a Dean upset.'

Since September, of course, the economy has begun roaring back, Saddam was captured, and Bush's poll numbers have firmed up. But I'm quite certain the Republicans 'so fear Dean' anyway.

[Scott Lee]

12. And now for some corrections on your post....

Uh, since September, the economy hasn't "roared back". The stock markets went up and as we know, they could plunge just as easily. Jobless fell a bit, but as we know the new jobs being produced are at a significantly lower average wage than those lost - so this is a net sum loss for the workers. Saddam captured? So what. It's all too clear that this bedraggled old man hiding in a hole was not leading an insurgency and was clearly not a threat to the US.

The reichists really haven't gained squat. Even Bush's bump in the polls is far below what I expected from recent events, and as we know with the famous American three second attention span, it could disappear in a week.

Moderate repubs are warming to Dean on a sincere level because they like his fiscal conservatism. Social rethugs hate him because he is a cultural revolutionary who doesn't hate Gay people. Howard Dean is attracting and repelling all the right folks.

[Name removed]

13. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Don Claybrook]

16. 'Begun to roar back' vs. 'is roaring back'

How can something begin to roar back? If you want to use the adjective, you'll need to be able to back it up.

Is the beginning of a roar actually a whimper? Acceleration is not instantaneous, you know. Race cars, rocket ships, sprinters--they all start at zero. When they have reached an appropriately-impressive velocity, they could then fairly be described as roaring. But sometimes race cars and space shuttles crash. And sometimes sprinters fall. If you're going to pick on the other poster about phrasing nuance, you'll need to play by the same rules.

Oh, and quit personally attacking the other poster, e.g., "lesson in integrity" (directed at that poster), "Your expectations, like your pathetic attempts at being an economist, mean squat", "3 second attention span' of yours", and "Your empty opinion disguised as facts". Not nice, Billy Bunter.

Again I ask you, given your visceral hatred of Howard Dean, if he happens to win the nomination, how will you vote? I've asked you that question 4 times now, and you've refused to answer. Not surprising, but I thought I'd ask again anyway.

[Julien Sorel]

17. The adjective was backed up

with reference to economic data.

Zing!

[Don Claybrook]

19. I think you're missing the finer points

Roaring is a discrete state, like zero or one. It's kind of like either being pregnant or not being pregnant. There's no such thing as "beginning to be pregnant".

Oh, and you're wrong about the economy. It's a mess--ask around in working-class circles.

I'd love to stay around and correct you, but I must go for now. Good day.

[Julien Sorel]

21. LOL

Your 'correction' is about as good as the other guy's.

'Roaring' as a binary discrete state. Why don't you write a paper on it? You folks haven't made me laugh in about 10 minutes now.

[Don Claybrook]

23. You know what the nicest part of this conversation is?

The part that makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside is that Howard Dean will very likely run away with the nomination and then go on to kick George W Bush's ass out of the White House he stole.

You can rail against Democrats all day long (odd hobby for someone posting on DU, but whatever gets you through the night), but in the end, a good Democrat will win despite your best efforts. Tums may help.

[Julien Sorel]

27. Hey, if you say it, it has to be true.

I'm a believer! Point me to the fruit-flavored, sugary beverage, please.

01000100011001010110000101101110001000000101001101110101011000110110101101110011

[HFishbine]

28. Damn Billy

You're gonna force the Admins to deal with crap they couldn't even have imagined. Who would ever have guessed they would have to add something to the rules about not flaming in any language, including binary code.

0100001001101001011011000110110001111001001000000110001001101100011011110111011101110011

http://nickciske.com/tools/binary.php

[Julien Sorel]

29. Until your post, there would have been no need to.

[HFishbine]

34. It's my fault?

0111011101101000011000010111010001100101011101100110010101110010

[Scott Lee]

18. Allow me to correct you again.

A gross misquote. I said the economy has 'begun to roar back,' not that the economy is 'roaring back' (yours). Q3 GDP growth was 8.2%, one of the highest figures on record. All leading economic indicators that I'm aware of are positive, while inflation remains low. All signs are that we are at the beginnings of a very strong period of economic growth.

"Begun to" and "is" are virtually the same sentiment. If I tell you that my books have begun to slide off the table, wouldn't that indicate to you that the motion has already begun and therefore IS in motion?

Words. They mean things.

Also, your economic-kunde is quite lacking. A gain in jobs that earn less than the ones lost is a big loss in general for the job market and an ominous sign that this economic "recovery" is quite temporary or even superficial. After all, if people aren't doing better in general, what good is an improving economy? You aren't one of them trickle-down folks, are you?



Bush's poll numbers have gone up -- period.

So has my blood pressure. That doesn't mean it won't go down in an hour.

And that '3 second attention span' of yours means that his poll numbers could just as easily go up further as go down.

Wishful thinking?

Or merely stay the same, which would be more than good enough.

Gee, in my world that would mean stagnation. I certainly want Bush to stagnate. That gives him all the better chance of getting his ass beat in 04.


Your empty opinion disguised as facts.

Gee Billy, you sound a little upset...you ok?

Bush's poll numbers are going up,

For now. Wait a week or two.

Bush absolutely destroys Dean in polls,

Bush the Elder was destroying Clinton in polls about a year ahead of the election, too. And we all know how that turned out.

but you somehow draw from that that 'moderate Repubs are warming to Dean'???

Not "drawing from that". Noting fact. It is a fact that many more "dyed in the wool" conservative repubs are turning off to Bush because of his perceived abandonment of bedrock conservative principles; one biggie being the spend spend tendency of the Bush admin.

There's something seriously frightening about someone who could spew that.

The only thing that's frightening you is the presentation of facts. Frankly, that should concern you more than Howard Dean.

[Don Claybrook]

20. moderate Repubs are warming to Dean'???

Not all of them. Some Republicans seem to just HATE Howard Dean. Then again, maybe it's not the moderate Republicans who hate him, but the rabid, angry right-wingers with no self-esteem who just hate and fear the thought of progress. Zing, as they say.

Just a minor clarification to your good post, Scott.

[Julien Sorel]

25. This is hilarious.

Begun to" and "is" are virtually the same sentiment. If I tell you that my books have begun to slide off the table, wouldn't that indicate to you that the motion has already begun and therefore IS in motion?

Are the books off the table or not? Is the economy roaring or not? Or are the books beginning to fall, is the economy beginning to roar? When Dean supporters attack.

So has my blood pressure. That doesn't mean it won't go down in an hour.

Not an argument that hasn't already been dealt with -- you moved from misquoting me to selective quotations. It's an integrity issue.

But do something about that blood pressure! The world needs a man such as yourself around as long as possible.

Not "drawing from that". Noting fact. It is a fact that many more "dyed in the wool" conservative repubs are turning off to Bush because of his perceived abandonment of bedrock conservative principles; one biggie being the spend spend tendency of the Bush admin.

Where is your evidence of this 'fact?' It's just your opinion again -- which isn't worth a whole lot. This further compounds my amusement: your original statement was that 'moderate Repubs are warming to Dean;' unsupported by evidence, of course. Now it's '"dyed in the wool" conservative repubs' being turned '... off by Bush.' Make up whatever mind you've been blessed with, and for crissake, stop shooting off your mouth without some kind of supporting evidence. You'll probably cut down on your posts by about 90%, but you won't make so many palpably false statements.

[Scott Lee]

30. The truth is even funnier!

Are the books off the table or not?

The act of sliding is not a completed one. It is an imperfect - like sleeping (as some Dean opponents do in place of thinking). If it's "begun" then it "is" in motion. Get it? Therefore when you say the economy has "begun" to "roar back to life" you are in fact saying that it "is" roaring back to life.

Logic. It's not just for breakfast anymore.

Is the economy roaring or not? Or are the books beginning to fall, is the economy beginning to roar? When Dean supporters attack.


"Roaring back" is your term, not mine - and frankly I find it a sentiment of damn near Republican *cough* motivation. There are some positive signs, but of them they could be all too temporary. I would not accurately characterize the economy as "roaring back", no.

Not an argument that hasn't already been dealt with -- you moved from misquoting me to selective quotations.

Untrue, actually. My advice to you is, if you don't want to be rhetorically eviscerated then don't use a poor choice of words when elucidating your positions. Just a thought.

It's an integrity issue.

Is that untrodden ground for you?

But do something about that blood pressure! The world needs a man such as yourself around as long as possible.


Oh, I plan to. I have lots of anti-Dean hate to correct on a daily basis here.

Not "drawing from that". Noting fact. It is a fact that many more "dyed in the wool" conservative repubs are turning off to Bush because of his perceived abandonment of bedrock conservative principles; one biggie being the spend spend tendency of the Bush admin.

Where is your evidence of this 'fact?'


Well there's this....

http://republicansfordean.blogspot.com/2003_08_01_republicansfordean_archive.htm

This is the site for Republicans who are interested in the campaign of former Gov. Howard Dean of Vermont. Why should Republicans back a Democrat like Dean? Isn't he too far to the Left? Not really. He backs many ideals that we Republicans cherish (or used to cherish) such as fiscal responsibility. If you want to become part of the Republicans for Dean community, please e-mail me at [email protected].

And this....

http://centristcoalition.com/blog/archives/000050.html

former GOP operative, Michael Cudahy, who is also working for Dean, and writes:

I guess I would say to people who have been terrified by President Bush and his administration, "do not be afraid of all Republicans, because there are millions of Republicans who are wonderful caring people. Citizens who embrace the traditions and policies of Abraham Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt and Dwight Eisenhower......reach out to them.........and create a radical center where all of us can work together -- even when we disagree."

Oh and let's not forget this....

http://deandefense.org/archives/001092.html

In New Hampshire, “Hilary Cleveland of New London, wife of the late congressman James Cleveland, and a prominent campaigner for both President Bushes, is helping organize a Republicans-for-Dean movement.” “Cleveland was the New London co-chair for George W. Bush’s 2000 campaign and was the state finance chair for Bush’s father in 1980.”


Damn, facts and you just don't get along, do you! Better luck next time. I look forward to the continuing opportunity to correct your postings.

[Julien Sorel]

33. I'm going to stop

parsing over the 'roaring' nonsense -- I think rational people have enough evidence to draw their own conclusions.

The rest of your post is devoted to using anecdotes to support a statement that poll data have already disproven. Polls showing Bush at 59% approval and beating Dean by something like 60-30 mean a whole lot more than a slapped-together website titled 'Republicans for Dean.' Keep working on those facts.

[Scott Lee]

35. At least you know when facts have overtaken you. Well done.

Let me know if you want proof that some republicans are furious at Bush for his abandonment of some core conservative fiscal practices, and don't intend to support him next election.

[Capn Sunshine]

39. I grow weary of republican spin being quoted as fact

particularly about the conomy "roaring" back. In the Current very deep hole we find ourselves, an aberrant single quarter growth rate , revised ownward since then, based on wartime spending and little else, is no reason for celebration in the face of continued weakness of the dollar and twin deficits. It's not a pretty picture, and to celebrate such things as 20,000 less people filing for unemployment, while still losing over 320,000 jobs , is just propaganda. The very basis of our economy dictates that we need to create over 250,000 new jobs per month. At this stage in a general recovery cycle the economy should be creating 350,000 jobs. Not LOSING them. So if you compare year to year, things look grim.

ANY talk of improvement must be tempered by two things: the dollar is about to lose its denomination of most financial transactions in the world ; and continued War without end is not accretive to general growth.

So if you choose to buy in to this propaganda, remember whose horse you're backing. It's NOT any democrat.

[Scott Lee]

41. You notice that too?

I have been...unamused...at noting the increasing republican character of the attacks against Dean here at DU. Really makes you wonder, does it not?

[mzmolly]

45. Makes me wonder too.....

:(

[msanger]

22. is billy bunter a rovester?

Assuming Clark should win the nomination, is BB one of rove's plants who are deliberately trying to get us to not like Clark?

Just remember not to judge a candidate by ALL of his (or her) followers.

[Don Claybrook]

24. I could vote for Clark with a smile on my face

In spite of some of his issues that I don't care for, and in spite of some of his supporters who detract from his cause.

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

26. I have wondered...

about that myself.

[Scott Lee]

31. No, Rove is much more eloquent and researched.

[Upfront]

44. I Don't

And it is a good thing because I would have a tough time voting for them should they win.

[bigtree]

9. The Republican point of view

:thumbsdown:

[TruthIsAll]

10. No, the popular vote doen't elect, but SCOTUS does..

...

[caledesi]

11. mzmolly - thank you. what a powerful article. eom

[CMT]

36. makes sence to me

thanks for posting this.

[Killarney]

37. Great article n/t

[TLM]

40. Nothing like a healthy dose of fact and reality....

to blindside the Dean bashers.


:toast: Here's to our next president, Howard Dean.


:toast: Here's to John "I flip flop on the Iraq war so much it looks like I'm having a f-ing seizure" Kerry LOSING to nomination to a real democrat.

[ldoolin]

46. kick

nt