Barak has roared on Iran - who will not fear?

[bemildred]

For years, the most popular headline with the heads of Israel's defense establishment was "Shihab-3 missiles aimed at the heart of Tel Aviv." Every time the argument about the size of the defense budget arose, military correspondents would urgently be called to the Kirya in Tel Aviv, where the General Staff is headquartered. There, senior officers would tell the military correspondents, in the utmost secrecy, that Iran's nuclear plans were advancing and that their missiles already were capable of reaching Tel Aviv. The result would be massive headlines in the next day's newspapers reporting on missiles aimed directly at the heart of the country, and asserting that it was therefore possible to cut the defense budget when our lives were at stake.

But this year Defense Minister Ehud Barak had a problem. The government decided, contrary to his opinion, to cut the defense budget and also to institute some transparency and exert control over it. True, we are not talking about a big slash, just a small cut, and only to the addition given to the army. But Barak didn't like even this small cut, and he therefore decided to appear before the Knesset's Finance Committee and hint - a hint only as subtle as an elephant - that Israel could find itself in a situation in which it would be necessary to attack Iran alone, without help from others. He even mentioned a date - the decisive year of 2012. So who will now have the courage to cut the defense budget when next year we could face a war in which life and death hang in the balance?

The scare tactics used by the heads of the defense establishment aren't new. Once upon a time, the defense ministers would invoke Egypt, then they moved to Iraq's Saddam Hussein and the eastern front. But now all they have left is Ahmadinejad in Iran. The truth is that there is no great connection between the real threats and the size of the defense budget in this country.

The army always exaggerates the dangers, always demands more money, but the budget is determined at the end of the day by the political strength of the defense minister and not by any real threat.

http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/opinion/barak-has-roared-on-iran-who-will-not-fear-1.393610

[bemildred]

1. Israeli sends out loud warning to Iran

Through a number of leaks and well-publicized war exercises, the Israeli government has dramatically increased its threats against Iran in the past days. Since the Israeli military likes to act by surprise, it seems this specific escalation is a bluff designed to help pass tougher diplomatic measures against the Islamic Republic at the United Nations Security Council, specifically following the anticipated publication of an important report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) next week.

However, given the exceptionally high and rising regional tensions (not all of which involve Israel directly), a larger war in the Middle East is a distinct possibility. Thus, the Israeli rhetoric can be interpreted in two additional ways (all three are not mutually exclusive): as an attempt to deter a possible first or second strike by Iran and its allies, and as a campaign to prepare public opinion, both at home and abroad, for hostilities.

According to a widely circulated if anonymous assessment (presumed to have come directly from high-ranking Israeli officials), the window of opportunity for striking the Iranian nuclear sites this year will close in a matter of weeks, with the coming of the winter.

The urgency implied in this argument is not necessarily very real - according to most assessments, if Iran were to choose to produce a nuclear bomb, it would need several years at the current rate of enrichment to have enough weapons-grade uranium or plutonium.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MK05Ak02.html