Majority of both Palestinians and Israeli expect new intifada

[bemildred]

Two polls earlier this month gave strikingly similar results on one question: do you think a third intifada (Palestinian uprising) is looming?

An Israeli poll for The Peace Index found that 70% of Jews in Israel expect a popular uprising following the expected declaration of a Palestinian state in September and its possible recognition by the UN. (62% of Israeli-Arabs also think an intifada is likely.)

A poll for the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion found that 70.5% of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza believe an intifada will break out if the deadlock in negotiations continues.

It looks very much as though all these scenarios will come to pass: the deadlock will indeed continue, the Palestinians will declare their state and a majority of countries at the UN General Assembly will back it.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/view-from-jerusalem-with-harriet-sherwood/2011/may/31/israel-palestinian-territories

[Deep13]

1. You know what would really help this situation?

A big Glenn Beck rally in Jerusalem. :(

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20063302-503544.html

[Never Stop Dancin]

2. this certainly better not happen

The last intifada nearly killed the Tel Aviv trance scene--everyone was afraid to go out. And it was a big inconvenience for those of us who wanted to visit Israel too!

[JonScholar]

3. And here I was thinking the Palestinians were the victims

It was the dancers all along! How selfish of the Palestinians to rise up against Israeli tyranny. Don't they understand the adverse effects the protests had on the dance scene? Oh the shame

[AndyTiedye]

7. More Dancing and Less Killing Would Surely be a Good Thing

[azurnoir]

4. IMO that depends on Israel's response to a UN vote

which again IMO could be listed from least to most likely

respecting the UNGA's decision

doing nothing business as usual

annexing the West Bank and East Jerusalem

or unilaterally declaring a Palestinian State in Area's A and B(what ever that is at the moment) and stationing IDF troops surrounding them and annexing the area C 60% of the est Bank and East Jerusalem

[bemildred]

5. I don't think much of polls as prognosticators myself.

On the other hand, it does seem to me that the situation is slipping out of control, a lot of new unknowns coming onto the stage, not to mention generational change going on all the time, and various exponential processes running off towards infinity, and most of the "leaders" if not downright ignorant then very narrowly educated and plodding in their thinking.

[Recursion]

9. I think the younger generation has a different idea of intifadah

The marches on the borders a couple of weeks ago were test runs for a big Tahrir-style settlement sit-in (or, I suppose, sit-around since they won't be able to actually get in).

[shira]

10. Marches to the border were carried out by Hezbollah/Syria, not peaceful secular activists. n/t

[Recursion]

11. That's as much BS as it was 2 weeks ago

Nice try though. I've met several of organizers of the marches, and you just won't be able to spin them as Hezbollah.

[jimmie]

6. Wide open borders with endless weapons and bombs ...

going into gaza.....what could possibly go wrong?

[oberliner]

8. Interesting surveys

A few excerpts:

In your opinion, which of the following means is the best to end the occupation and lead to the establishing of an independent Palestinian state” 32.1% of the respondents are in favor of negotiations until an agreement between the two parties is reached, whereas 25.0% are in favor of the non-violent popular resistance, 12.4% through the United Nations, 23.1% by holding an international conference that will impose a solution on all parties, 5.0% are for military operations, and 2.4% otherwise.

Do you expect that a peace agreement will be reached between Israelis and Palestinians in the next year?” a plurality 60.5% say yes to a certain degree, 23.8% say no, 14.2% say yes, and 1.5% “do not know”.

If new PA presidential elections are held, and Mahmoud Abbas was Fatah’s candidate, while Ismael Hanieh was Hamas’s candidate, whom would you vote for? More than half of the Palestinians 57.8% will vote for Mahmoud Abbas, whereas 13.1% will vote for Ismael Hanieh. However, 26.0% say they will not cast their ballot, and 3.1% say “I do not know”.