By Rami G. Khouri
Daily Star staff
Thursday, May 08, 2008
The convergence of six trends in the Middle East - the changing realities of food, energy, water, population, urbanization and security-dominated politics - is likely to create conditions that will be politically challenging, if not destabilizing, in many countries in the years ahead. The confluence of these trends is very similar to what happened in the region in the mid to late 1970s, when the current Islamist wave of social identity and confrontational politics was initiated.
Things will be much more difficult this time around, and the consequences could be much worse, especially in view of the ripple effect of the war in Iraq, Iran's growing influence, the continued stalemate in Palestine and the weakening of some Arab governments. It is difficult to predict exactly what will happen in the years ahead, but the stressful factors propelling change are already clear and we would be foolish to ignore them.
Two critical basic needs - food and energy - are simultaneously becoming more costly, and a third - water - is likely to follow, given the high population growth rate and finite available water resources in the Middle East. Arab governments are scrambling to find stop-gap solutions to the problem of rising food and energy prices, which touch every household.
Most Middle Eastern countries cannot subsidize energy and food prices forever, given the divergence between rising prices and limited government finances. With the price of oil now around $120 a barrel, most countries are being forced to allow domestic energy prices to reflect actual market costs. This means that household energy and fuel costs will probably double for most families in comparison with what they were paying five years ago.
Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, Syria and other countries have announced wage increases for public-sector employees, partly in response to political pressures from restless populations. But the increases will not keep pace with rising costs, and governments will not be able to keep increasing wages in parallel with commodity price increases.
The demographics of the Middle East also increase economic and political stresses. The population of the region is now mostly urban, young, educated, and defined by rising expectations, while at the same time it is politically frustrated. Socio-economic and political trends are on a collision course. At the family and grassroots level, most Arabs are finding their lives increasingly difficult due to rising costs of basic needs, while their political systems in most cases are increasingly autocratic and security-focused.
The post-9/11 period in the region has seen governments emphasize security measures, to the detriment of political liberalization and democratization. Existing "democratic" or participatory institutions, such as the Egyptian, Moroccan, Jordanian, Iranian and most other regional Parliaments, continue to lose credibility, thus shutting down an important outlet for people to peacefully express their frustrations and concerns.
lots more...
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&categ_id=5&article_id=91779
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