Israeli think tank: Hamas has 20,000 armed men in Gaza Strip

[bemildred]

An Israeli think tank said in a study it released on Thursday that Hamas' military buildup is at its peak, despite the international blockade on the Gaza Strip.

In an estimate of the current strength of the militant group's forces, the think tank said Hamas had organized 20,000 armed forces and acquired long-range rockets and advanced anti-tank weapons.

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Futhermore, the study said the Islamic group has smuggled 80 tons of explosives into the Gaza Strip since it seized the territory last year.

Referring to Hezbollah, the study described the Lebanese guerilla group's "success in providing an asymmetric response to the Israel Defense Forces' might" during the Second Lebanon War as having made it a role model for Hamas.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/973718.html

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

1. Here's guessing a fork and knife count as "armed" to the think tank. (nt)

[bemildred]

2. I have mixed feelings.

On the one hand I haven't much use for think tanks, which are largely paid propaganda mills. Having done some work in that area, I know how "white papers" and such come to be, and that is not via an impartial search for the truth.

On the other hand, this is entirely consistent with what one would expect Hamas to try to do. In fact one has to drink a good deal KoolAid to expect anything else other than this to occur when Israel withdrew from the Gaza Strip.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

3. The number seems rather bloated.

That's what I take issue with. I have no doubts that Hamas has moved in, but to intimate that a sizable armed militia has taken root there is a bit much. A few thousand, maybe, but 20k seems intentionally embellished.

[bemildred]

5. OK, that's a reasonable view.

I can think of arguments either way, and I can't really think of any way to tell the difference short of a hot war. This is all in the nature of hot air short of a "test of events" to sort out who has better "vision" of the situation.

I am reminded of how opinions about al Sadr's militia were "clarified" by al Maliki's failed attack on them in Basra. I'm not saying a similar thing would happen in Gaza, I don't know, but I'm saying it would likely clarify matters as to what Hamas has and has not been able to accomplish.

[aranthus]

6. It may be.

You raised the issue of who counts as an armed man. Even if, as I suspect, the study only estimated guns, does that include police? The way that it's written, if creates the impression that all of those potential 20K are military or paramilitary, which probably isn't so. And how accurate could the study be if no one has gone in to count?

[bemildred]

7. FWIW

I read a few days back a story that suggested that there are a few thousand that were trained in Iran. That seems a reasonable number of effectives, in fact it would be quite an accomplishment, but it makes me wonder how all those people were shuttled back and forth, since Gaza is supposed to be closed. How closed can it be with all those people shuttling back and forth to Iran? Isn't that some sort of colossal failure of the Gaza closure?

[ProgressiveMuslim]

10. Does your use of "moved in" imply that you believe Hamas is somehow

an imported group?

I personally think they are pretty grass roots.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

11. Well, you're right there.

I was more inclined to believe that the deck was shuffled a bit, so to speak, moving from elsewhere within Palestinian territory. Apologies for any confusion.

They are absolutely grassroots - you are correct. They're one of the only entities actually helping people on a day-to-day basis within Palestine. It's somewhat akin to what you see at the evangelical megachurches, but only if those services weren't provided by anyone else.

[Vegasaurus]

13. Last I checked, evangelical megachurches

were not blowing up people, firing rockets, oppressing their population, or creating general mayhem.

Whatever "good works" or services Hamas used to provide, they clearly no longer care to do, since humanitarian needs of their people is way low on their "to do" list. Top priority continues to be killing as many Israelis as possible, and taking back all of "greater Palestine". No "helping people" at all.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

14. Spoken like someone with absolutely no clue what they're talking about. (nt)

[Vegasaurus]

15. Why not list some of the Hamas "good works"

of late?

They seem to think blowing up their own fuel sources is just great. What kind fools care so little about the humanitarian needs of their people that they blow up their food and aid, in order to kill more Israelis?

So, list some good deeds of Hamas. We are all curious.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

16. If I had even the vaguest notion that you are genuinely interested, I'd do so.

Your feigned attempts at "curiosity" are flimsy, at best. If you want to find out, you need only use the power of Google, my friend.

[Vegasaurus]

21. Again, facts on the ground, rather than your inflated opinion

If Hamas actually cared about the humanitarian needs of its people, if it really was in the business of "helping" them, they wouldn't endorse or carry out attacks upon their own fuel, aid, electricity or other services provided by Israel.

If Hamas cared about the humanitarian needs of its people, it would enforce an end to the militancy, stop the rocket fire, and then the siege would be lifted immediately, and the humanitarian "crisis" would end.

Since Hamas refuses to do any of the above, we can clearly see that they care nothing about their people or their needs, and that the only agenda they do have is that outlined in their inflammatory charter.

[ProgressiveMuslim]

17. Veggie's a one-note. nt

[Name removed]

19. Deleted message

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[ProgressiveMuslim]

20. I think they're pretty representative of a wide swath, at least in Gaza.

I chuckle when Israel-onlies here post about the "proxy war." That's actually pretty funny.

[aranthus]

4. Armed men don't make an army.

There may or may not be 20K guns in Gaza. That doesn't mean that all of them are "Hamas" men or that any of them are combat effective (reasonably well trained, organized supplied, and lead). At this point, most of these armed men are more of a threat to the citizens of Gaza than they are to Israel.

[azurnoir]

8. My, the "drafters" of this report have a way with words

An Israeli think tank said in a study it released on Thursday that Hamas' military buildup is at its peak, despite the international blockade on the Gaza Strip.

Despite, did anyone actually think this would be a discouragement? And it gets better still

Referring to Hezbollah, the study described the Lebanese guerilla group's "success in providing an asymmetric response to the Israel Defense Forces' might" during the Second Lebanon War as having made it a role model for Hamas.

Hamas "needed" a role model for asymmetric warfare? Hamas might be wise to follow Hezbollah's political and social wing more closely though.

The center has close links to Israel's defense establishment and based its report on data supplied in part by the Shin Bet security service.

Well, what a surprise and I do not doubt that the report is for the most part true, although 20,000 maybe a high estimate.

[ProgressiveMuslim]

9. How do you see Hamas deviating? nt

[azurnoir]

12. I think in some ways Hassan Nasrallah

has more political and media savvy than Ismail Haniyeh one of those ways is to have clearly divided political/social and military wings. Albeit could be the media is not playing quite the same good guy v bad guy game with Hezbollah as with they are Hamas.

[ProgressiveMuslim]

18. I think they're trying to emulate the Hezbollah model.

It's so interesting regarding the media. When you're there in the thick of things, Western media seem so irrelevant. I don't think Hamas could ever hope to match Israel's media savvy. Frankly, I don't think they believe that manipulating western thinking is ever going to produce anything for them.

I don't think it's a goal.

I think it's pretty much what you see is what you get. It's a shame that there isn't more day to day reported in the Western news.