Death of Hezbollah kingpin: A war awaits

[subsuelo]

Asia Times

To understand the significance of Mughniyeh to Hezbollah, the following comment is pertinent. It was made to Anthony Shadid of the Washington Post by Ali Hassan Khalil, who is a member Parliament with Amal, another Shi'ite Muslim group allied with Hezbollah, "This is a loss of a major pillar in resistance work. He was an expert at making victories and building fighting capacities against Israel. He played an essential role in all resistance activities, especially the last war."

Unfortunately, the death of one violent man, more often than not, leads to even more violence. The streets of Damascus - where Mughniyeh was killed - and Beirut - where he had lived - are already abuzz with talk of vengeance.

Translated into the language of high politics, this means that the chances of an outbreak of violence between Hezbollah and Israel are high. Syria and Iran - the real players in this fight - are not about to take on the Israel. But Damascus knows that Israel is itching to get even with Hezbollah. Similarly, Tehran knows that both the US and Israel are eagerly looking for an opportunity to neutralize its nuclear option.

In the high-powered calculations of nation-states - especially major regional actors, which Iran, Syria and Israel are - the promotion of their strategic interests are much too vital to be sacrificed by risking wars. Entities like Hezbollah, on the contrary, are eminently expendable.

"Small wars" -a la the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel - are also acceptable, even though they contain the risk of escalating into a major war. Not many people wish to hear this, but in those calculations, even a high level of "collateral damage" (another bureaucratic and dehumanizing phrase that serves as a euphemism for civilian death) is "acceptable", as long as those who lose their lives are not Iranians, Syrians or Israelis.

...Lebanon is likely to suffer the consequences of the games that are being played between Iran, Syria and Israel.

Lebanon's civilians have never chosen to live by the sword. However, one miserable consequence of being a Lebanese is that someone else is determining that they must die by the sword.