MI officer: Hezbollah is rebuilding south of Litani

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The head of the research division of Military Intelligence, Brigadier General Yossi Baidatz, told lawmakers Monday that Hezbollah is rebuilding its forces south of the Litani River in Lebanon, despite the presence of international peacekeepers in the area. (Click here for map)

Baidatz' remarks at a meeting of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee apparently contradict comments by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert at a speech to the Knesset last week, in which he said that "the situation in southern Lebanon has changed completely" since the summer 2006 war.

"Hezbollah continues to rehabilitate, from a military and a social perspective. It is acquiring a large number of weapons from Iran and Syria," Baidatz said.

"It is preparing itself for possible conflict in the summer, but is not interested in this as it aspires to a period of calm in which to rehabilitate."

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/866920.html

[dave_p]

1. Let's run with that

"It is preparing itself for possible conflict in the summer, but is not interested in this."

"Not interested". Same story coming from Hezbollah, interestingly enough. Good to have decent intelligence.

Maybe time to explore an alternative to the big stick? I think there are receptive ears.

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2. Stating the obvious, yes.

Anyone that thought Hizbullah would not rebuild S of the Litani is drinking too much KoolAid. Anyone that thought they would not do so with better arms, funding, and recruits than before is also drinking too much KoolAid. On the other hand there is always the chance they will get arrogant or stupid.

[dave_p]

3. Nope

their interest in renewing war is what, precisely? "Not interested"? What could that imply?

Engage intelligence, not paranoid tub-thumping fantasies.

"Too arrogant or stupid"? Come on, you lifted that from Winograd, surely.

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4. I don't think they want a war this year.

I do think they could get arrogant or stupid.
I didn't use the word "Too", I would appreciate it if you quoted me accurately.

[dave_p]

5. Apologies for the "too"

- a genuine misreading, the word hereby withdrawn absolutely.

Hezbollah's afraid of an Israeli attack. There's no southward attack planned. I really think you should take the intelligence estimate at face value. It looks sound to me.

The question is, will anyone make constructive use of the opportunity to move beyond violence?

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6. I do take it at face value.

I don't really see why you think I dont.

The idea of Hizbullah invading Israel on the ground is ridiculous. Any likely ground invasion would be going the other way, and it would fail once again. Rockets and air bombardment are another matter, we might see some of that from both sides as a form of dick-waving, or not.

In answer to your question, it appears that some noises are being made in that direction, but I would be doubtful that wiser heads would prevail as yet. There are too many still on both sides with a vested interest in violence, and they won't give it up.

[dave_p]

7. I think rockets are out

... from the north this year. Last year shocked Hezbollah. Winograd mayt have deterred Olmert. It's just sad that these windows don't get used for better than preparing the next round of this interminable pointlessness.

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8. Most likely, but because they don't want a fight this year.

I don't really agree that last year shocked then in any way. I thought Hizbullah was pleased with themselves. But that is the sort of thing where reasonable people can disagree, since the one thing you can be sure of is that everyone will lie vigorously about it. I think there is disagreement within the Israeli government as to whether another round is a good idea or not, and about when it might be a good idea. The mess in Gaza complicates the matter a good deal. If I had to hazard a guess, I don't think there will be another war this year, but there is plenty of time left and one good terrorist attack could change it.

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9. MI: Syria strengthening military force on border

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The Military Intelligence assessments that will be presented to the security cabinet on Wednesday show that the Syrian army is deployed along the Golan Heights with strengthened forces, having moved units of large-caliber rockets, similar to the ones Hezbollah launched against Haifa during the Second Lebanon War, up to the front.

Intelligence reports also note that the Syrian army has improved its fortifications and has received modern, Russian-made antitank and anti-aircraft missiles.

The Israel Defense Forces, meanwhile, continued its preparations on Tuesday with an attack on, and occupation of, a "Syrian" village during a major exercise in the Negev.

Observing the exercise were Defense Minister Amir Peretz and Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi. Similar exercises in recent years had involved the occupation of "Palestinian" villages.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/867700.html