IDF: No operation could have freed soldiers

[Scurrilous]

Northern Command chief says army never told government that military operation could have brought back two soldiers kidnapped by Hizbullah last summer

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3391849,00.html

<snip>

"The army was aware from the onset of last summer's war in Lebanon that a military operation against Hizbullah would not secure the release of two soldiers kidnapped in a cross-border attack, a senior general said Wednesday, contradicting past claims by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.

Northern Command chief Maj. Gen. Gadi Eizenkot, who was the head of the Operations Directorate during the war, said that the army presented the government with a plan to weaken Hizbullah and never suggested that the soldiers could be freed.

"It was clear that clear that a military operation would not bring them back," Eizenkot said.

Eizenkot's words are in sharp contrast with Olmert's pledge last summer in a key speech at the Knesset that the aim of the military operation against Hizbullah was to secure the release of Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser."

[bemildred]

1. Boy, you could just knock me over with a feather.

I have to give this guy credit for some spine anyway, for stating the obvious. If you want the captives returned, there is a very straightforward way to go about it.

[eyl]

2. Sure, but that also sets up the next kidnapping

following the war, Nasrallah publicly stated that he wouldn't have carried out the kidnapping if he'd known Israel would respond with force. While we can never know for sure, it's quite possible that if Barak had responded forcefully to the previous kidnapping, this one wouldn't have happened.

[bemildred]

3. Recognizing that the Second Lebanon War was not about getting

the captives back doesn't set up anything, it is just a statement of obvious fact. You don't pound nails with a screwdriver.

I suppose your point is that the Second Lebanon War may prevent future kidnappings, which is arguable, but I doubt it. If that were true, kidnappings would have long since ceased, from the intimidating effects of the many operations carried out with precisely the intent of raising "deterrence" or taking reprisal for past wrongs. The problem is that those people you manage to intimidate are not the ones that are going to carry out the future kidnappings.

It's an awkward situation, but you can't fix it. If you don't allow exchanges, their is no reason for captives to be kept alive and treated well for their exchange value. If you do, kidnapping is a source of leverage for your enemies. I have seen quotes from Israeli sources referring to captives as "bargaining chips". If some Israelis think of captives that way, there is no surprise in some of their enemies thinking along the same lines. It isn't any of it new, the ransom of captives is an ancient practice and is found in many places today, Iraq for example is awash in it right now, and some parts of Latin America.

I'm not approving of that, mind you, this whole business of treating people as "bargaining chips" is wrong, in my opinion, and futile.

[eyl]

6. I referred to to Nasrallah himself

in what may be seen as a "statement against self-interest".

The fact of the matter is that we've shown that kidnapping Israelis is a highly "profitable" business. It's not a matter of prisoners taken in combat - it's a matter of operations specifically mounted to capture prisoners for exchange.

If you don't allow exchanges, their is no reason for captives to be kept alive and treated well for their exchange value.

FWIW, and given past experience, I'm assuming the captives are dead until proven otherwise.

[bemildred]

7. Nasrallah's words don't mean much to me.

I don't know that you've "shown" it, but it's observable that it is so. I'm just saying that it isn't something invented for you, and that other places haven't done any better in solving it. You have, to put it baldly, two choices, either to place no value on your people, or to accept that your enemies will try to exploit the value you place on them. I'm on the side of treating people as having value myself.

The Hiz'bullah captives may or may not be alive. That has nothing in particular to do with the general idea that the more valuable they are, and the better the odds of an exchange or ransom for live healthy captives, the better their chances of survival and decent treatment.

[eyl]

8. Those soldiers wouldn't have been in danger in the first place

If Hizbullah hadn't mounted an operation specifically intended to capture soldiers for "bargaining chips".

[bemildred]

9. Right. Sharp eye there. No accident, was it?

Perhaps the UN buffer will put an end to that sort of thing for a while, at least on that border.

[eyl]

10. Like it did the time before?

I'll be (pleasantly) surprised in that case

[bemildred]

11. Hey, it might help.

It's the one clear benefit of the war that I can see, such as it is. But I would be pleasantly surprised if it proved to be permanant or impervious too.

[The Magistrate]

12. A Sound Analysis, Mr. Mildred, As Usual

It will sound cold, but in the long run here, the Israeli state would be better served in these instances of capture by immediately holding a grand state funeral to bury a casket of bricks, issuing death certificates, and commencing to pay survivor's benefits to the families....

[bemildred]

4. A data point:

Does this sound like they are intimidated, or like they are Hiz'bullah wannabes?
I have to give the IDF credit here for not indulging in knee-jerk reactions.

IDF: Kidnapping foiled in Gaza; no invasion planned

Senior IDF officers say the Israel Defense Forces foiled a Hamas attempt to kidnap a soldier on the Gaza border yesterday. Apparently as part of this attempt, dozens of rockets and mortar shells - for which Hamas claimed responsibility - were fired at southern Israel. There were no casualties.

Government and army sources predicted that Israel's response would be localized and not involve a major ground operation in Gaza because no one was hurt and due to pleas for calm by members of the Palestinian government.

The sources said Hamas' claim of responsibility - the first since it formed a unity government with Fatah - should make it clear to all that this is a terrorist government.

Hamas began launching rockets and mortars along the Gaza-Israel border at about 8:00 A.M. The organization said it fired 28 rockets and 61 mortars, but the IDF believes the number was lower because it identified only about 10 landing sites. The launches damaged some agricultural buildings.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/851864.html

[bemildred]

5. Another:

Hamas' motivation / Renewed force, renewed truce

Hamas is under heavy pressure from the Israel Defense Forces and the Shin Bet security service in the West Bank, and therefore, it resumed rocket and mortar fire at Israel from the Gaza Strip. Its assumption is that it has an operational advantage against civilian communities in the Negev - an edge it would like to utilize to obtain a cease-fire in the West Bank. However, the chances of Israel agreeing to this are currently nil.

From Israel's perspective, the main danger is that Hamas will surprise the IDF by kidnapping a soldier or civilian, just as it did last June, when it kidnapped Gilad Shalit and killed two other soldiers. This danger should not be underestimated: The IDF's operational deployment in Gaza is nonideal, entailing various risks.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/851862.html

[Scurrilous]

13. Placard showing captive soldiers seen near border

Report: Hizbullah places large photos of Goldwasser, Regev near Israel-Lebanon border; IDF looking into reports

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3392353,00.html

<snip>

"The report said that Hizbullah placed the placard nearby the Lebanese border with Israel, close to where Goldwasser and Regev were kidnapped last summer. The placard shows the two kidnapped soldiers, one facing the viewer, and the other looking to the side, against a black backdrop.

The IDF could not immediately confirm the report, but was looking into it."

[bemildred]

14. It would be nice if they were holding a newspaper or something datable. nt

[bemildred]

15. Hezbollah taunts Israel with giant pic

Some more on this ...

SHIITE militants of Hezbollah have erected a large photograph of two Israeli soldiers it is holding on Lebanon's border with the Jewish state.

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The photograph was a montage of old pictures already circulated in Israel of the two men in civilian clothes before their capture in the deadly July 12, 2006, raid that triggered a 34-day Israeli war on Hezbollah in Lebanon.

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Between them was the legend in English and Arabic - “For the sake of our detainees”, a reference to Hezbollah's demands to exchange them for prisoners held by Israel.

The dozen or so Hezbollah militants who erected the photograph were unarmed.

http://www.news.com.au/mercury/story/0,22884,21629494-5007063,00.html