Neutralizing Palestine, to better focus on Iran

[Englander]

By Clayton E. Swisher
Friday, January 12, 2007

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's trip to the Middle East, which begins today, will be aimed at convincing the so-called "moderate Arab states" of Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia that the United States is finally ready, after six years of promises, to help Palestinians achieve their state. While good-faith American mediation would be welcomed, many Arabs will greet her visit with well-founded skepticism, questioning why a Bush administration that is seemingly locked at the hip with Israel now wishes to roll up its sleeves and help the Palestinians.

Six years of empty promises have bred considerable skepticism. Calls shortly after the September 11, 2001, attacks for a Palestinian state, the pressure applied by President George W. Bush on then-Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to end the first siege of Yasser Arafat's Ramallah compound in 2002, and even the 2002 "road map" for peace were all viewed as no more than attempts to placate the international community, especially moderate Arabs, in order to prepare for war in Iraq. Without Arab cooperation, particularly from Jordan and Saudi Arabia, US plans to depose Saddam Hussein would have ended up in the same jar of formaldehyde as we now know was reserved for the Palestinian issue.

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With two years left in office, the Bush administration wants to see Iran's regime humbled, if not toppled. Neoconservatives who have had their sights set on Iran are buoyed by the new arrangement where Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Israel find themselves on the same page when it comes to confronting Iran's uranium enrichment program. They all want to do business together, including with Israel - which has the motive and means to degrade Iranian targets through air strikes - but moderate Arabs demand progress on the Palestinian issue to retain some measure of legitimacy and avoid public embarrassment.

The question that should be asked now is how low the bar will be set by Arab moderates. Will nominal rhetorical gestures suffice as before the Iraq war? Will the anti-Iran bloc be pacified by pledges to really open the Karni crossing in Gaza this time and "humanize the checkpoints" with a new coat of paint? Will Arab moderates help Rice tube-feed Abbas on the notion of accepting a state with provisional borders and nominal sovereignty along the route of Israel's separation wall?

The difference here will be that Palestinians want and need an end to the conflict and occupation to get on with their lives, while moderate Arabs, Israel, and most significantly the US want the Palestinian problem contained, at least until Iran is taken care of. By then Palestine will be some other administration's mess to sort out.

Clayton E. Swisher, director of programs at the Middle East Institute in Washington DC, is author of "The Truth About Camp David" (New York, Nation Books: 2004). He wrote this commentary for THE DAILY STAR.

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