The most powerful in the Middle East: IDF stronger than ever

[tinnypriv]

Note: There was a press conference in Tel Aviv last night promoting the release of the new annual report of the Jaffee Centre For Strategic Studies: 'The Middle East Strategic Balance 2002-2003' (Ephraim Kam, Yiftah Shapir). I can't find anything in English yet, so excuse the lame links.

The most powerful in the Middle East
Ma'ariv, 22 September 2003

| IDF stronger than ever | Strategic Studies report: Gulf between the Arabs grows larger | After Iraq, Israel stronger; her neighbours weakened

"The gap between Israel and the Arab States is larger than ever", according to the report of the Centre for Strategic Studies, presented yesterday.

The report indicates that Israel now has a "window of opportunity", following the American victory in Iraq. With the threat from the eastern front eliminated, the report concludes that it is possible and feasible for Israel to reduce the size of the IDF.

...

According to the centre, based at Tel-Aviv University, the victory in Iraq demonstrates the disparity between modern armies and those of the Arab states. "4 combined US/British divisions succeeded in defeating 23 Iraqi divisions - erasing one of the largest armies in the Middle East", according to retired Brigadier-General, Shlomo Brom.

...

The report also states that the US victory in Iraq demonstrates the strength of US power, redrawing the deterrence map towards Iran, Syria and Hizbollah.

...

The report also says that Israel has a huge advantage in space development.

...

Links:
http://images.maariv.co.il/cache/ART543405.html (Ma'ariv, translated above)
http://www.tau.ac.il/jcss/news.html (JCSS website in English)
http://www.tau.ac.il/jcss/balance/presentation/index.ht... (the presentation given at the press conference)
http://www.tau.ac.il/jcss/images/MESB.pdf (PDF, english extracts from the report, excludes Chpt3 which includes the Arab World - Israel comparision)

[DuctapeFatwa]

1. They are especially adept at liquidating children and the elderly

And generous enough to loan operatives to the bush regime to aid them in their population reduction activities in Iraq.

[Name removed]

8. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[DuctapeFatwa]

9. Could you elaborate on "one such as myself" please?

What other information is available about that?

I was referring to the sharon regime gunmen, or the Israeli Occupation Forces, or the Dollaho Death Squads, whichever term you find most pleasing.

If you wish to argue that they do not intend to murder so many innocent civilians, my mind is certainly open to the possibility that they are merely exceptionally incompetent, and should be relieved of duty immediately for the safety of themselves and others.

[jplawne]

12. Open the mind really far if you can

Civilian deaths in war are neither a sign of incompetence nor intention. It is a given fact. When one considers that Hamas and the other armed militants attack from and seek shelter in civilian areas and dress like civilians then I do not find it surprising that Palestinian civilians are killed. I do not know of any incident in which Israel intended to kill civilians. If they wanted to do so, they could every day, much like Hamas tries. Under International Law, it is not illegal to target opposing forces that use civilian areas. The Palestinian forces on the other hand do target civilians on purpose. I assume you did not mention this fact because it is not worth arguing. All one needs to do is read press statement statements and go to the websites so see their gleeful joy in killing children and women because they are Jewish. Since you are so concerned with violence I thought I would provide you with some facts (you remember these don't you?) about violence against civilian in this conflict so you can work hard to stop it on both sides of this conflict. By the way, most Israelis killed were civilians and most Palestinians were combatants. I am sure you will place your disgust at the death of civilians in a more even-handed way next time


-Since Sept 2000 there have been 19 thousand attacks against the iDF and Israeli civilians in Israel the territories.

-Killed (including Arabs-Israelis and foreign workers)
Civilians: 629
Security Forces: 260
Total 889
Injured: 6k
- Total Palestinians killed
2350

70% of all Israelis killed were non-combatants (10% were in uniform)
17% of all Palestinians killed were non-combatants of any kind

Noncombatants killed: Female
40% Israelis killed were female: 187
8% Palestinians were female: 52

Noncombatants over 45 killed
30% Israel: 201
10% Palestinian: 76 actions (suicide, work accidents) or by their own side (intra-Palestinian fighting) 290.

[Darranar]

13. Source for that untrue junk?

[rini]

15. ah

what makes you think it is untrue? Can you prove it is untrue or do you simply prefer to "divine" what is true and not true oh mighty Oracle of Delfi?

[Darranar]

17. "17% of Palestinian dead are noncombatants"

Sounds made up to me.

A war such as this one always has rather high civilian casualties. There are no clear armies to target or bomb.

[rini]

20. oh

now there is a fact based approach

[tinnypriv]

19. It's from the statistics link on LGF I expect

Right hand column. Ict.co.il I think.

The study is reasonably well done, although considerably deceptive.

[Gimel]

22. Consistent with figures

These figures are consistent with the finding of IMRA in June 2002:

<snip>
Combatants, Noncombatants, and Responsibility

Around 1450 Palestinians have been killed since the start of the "al-Aqsa
Intifada", compared to more than 525 Israelis. Numbers like these are used
to create an image of lopsided slaughter, with Israel cast as the villain.
But such numbers distort the true picture: They lump combatants in with
noncombatants, suicide bombers with innocent civilians, and report
Palestinian "collaborators" murdered by their own compatriots as if they had
been killed by Israel.

More meaningful figures show that Israel is responsible for around 568
Palestinian noncombatant deaths, while Palestinians have killed more than
420 Israeli noncombatants. Over 50 percent of the Palestinians killed were
actively involved in fighting - and this does not include stone-throwers or
"unknowns". And Palestinians are directly responsible for the deaths of at
least 185 of their own number - one out of every eight Palestinians killed.

On the Israeli side, almost 80 percent of those killed have been
noncombatants. While Israelis account for only about 25 percent of the total
"Intifada" fatalities, they represent about 40 percent of the noncombatant
victims.

+ Breakdown by Gender

Women and girls account for 30 percent of all Israelis killed in the
conflict, and almost 40 percent of the Israeli noncombatants killed by
Palestinians.

Palestinian fatalities, in contrast, have been consistently and
overwhelmingly (over 95 percent) male; even when combatants (almost all of
whom have been male) are removed from consideration, fewer than 8 percent of
Palestinians killed by Israel have been female.

http://www.imra.org.il/story.php3?id=12593

[bluesoul]

23. Hmm

Btselem.org (also an Israeli source) tells a different story while looking at their statistics. Now, who should we trust?

[Gimel]

24. B'Tselem

This site is run by peace activists. I wouldn't call it an "Israeli source", it is run by private individuals. B'tselem specifies those killed in the territories separately from those killed in Israel proper.

Note that Palestinians killed by their own side exceeds 100 (84 + 29 = 113).



30 Israeli children were killed by Palestinians in the Territories, while 74 minors (below the age of 18) were killed by palestinians in Israel. That is a total of 104, while 2 minors whore were foreign citizens were also killed by Palestinians.

The majority of the children killed by Israeli forces were over the age of 15.

Extra-judical killings by Israel also killed 84 civilians. Within Israel, 386 civilians were killed by Palestinians. 74 were minors.

http://www.btselem.org/English/Statistics/Al_Aqsa_Fatal...


On edit: Note that the statistics for B'tselem are up to Oct 15, 2003, while those on the MIRA site are until June 2002.

[Resistance]

25. B'tselem is run by peace activists?

Wow, how awful. Those "leftist retards" really can't be trusted huh.

[Gimel]

29. Yes, of course

Israeli peace activists. Not retards. It's a developmental phase, however, so I get your point.

[bemildred]

2. Thanks for posting this.

I don't think I'll comment for now, except this is an interesting bit:

The report indicates that Israel now has a "window of opportunity",
following the American victory in Iraq. With the threat from the
eastern front eliminated, the report concludes that it is possible
and feasible for Israel to reduce the size of the IDF.

[The Magistrate]

3. There Is A Problem With The 'Window Of Opportunity' Thesis, Sir

Viewed as a conventional military balance of formed force to formed force, it is certainly sound. But the principal utilization of the Israeli Defense Forces today, and in any immediately foreseeable future, is as a gendarmerie charged with suppression of guerrila forces. This task requires copious man-power, particularly if it is not to be carried out by means of firepower employed wholesale in a strategy of frightfulness, which all but the most ideologically motivated must be prepared to admit is not the option actually in use.

[bemildred]

4. There is that.

Several of the premises layed out seem flawed to me, or
at best premature.

One suspects it will not be viewed with enthusiasm by
the defense establishment, in any case, much as the Pentagon
took a dim view of the "peace dividend" after the demise
of the Soviet Union.

[tinnypriv]

5. I think they're talking about tanks, not man-power

A section I didn't quote says that the IDF "doesn't need so many tanks, since the US conquered Iraq with a small land-force".

IDF manpower has stayed the same for the last 5 years or so (about 189,000), so I don't think the report means that the IDF should reduce that, rather that they should reduce the number of mechanised vehicles.

That part about the tanks is on the front of Ma'ariv BTW.

Sorry if that wasn't clear.

[Gimel]

21. IDF reduced

New policy does reduce the size of the reserve force. Due to budget restraints, the IDF has been cutting it's size, perhaps also due to the reason sited here.

[Flying_Pig]

6. Thanks to the billons every year from American taxpayers....

[LastDemInIdaho]

7. You're welcome.

Any extra money I can afford will go to Israel to help in their relief efforts and to help defend the innocents being targeted by the hamas and other palestinian terrorists that just want to kill Israeli citizens for fun.

[tinnypriv]

10. Are any news outlets ever going to bother covering this?

I guess the press must have all been too busy swilling champers with Shimon.

Anyway, yet another ignored story: it was revealed today that the so-called "Jewish Underground" was planning a "mega-terror" attack. The aim was to blow up a bunch of mosques throughout Israel (especially on the Temple Mount). Apparently the Shabak was pretty worried that this would bring "disaster" down on Israel. You don't say.

This is covered in precisely two outlets:

Ma'ariv: http://images.maariv.co.il/cache/ART544096.html

Arutz Sheva: http://www.a7.org/news.php?id=61183 (rehashes the Ma'ariv report).

Naturally, the english version of Arutz Sheva doesn't have a word about it. It's on the front page of the Heb version.

Draw the appropriate conclusions.

[tinnypriv]

11. Thanks to D Levy, more details on this

(Just forwarded to me - thanks. Details Ma'ariv missed in bold)

JERUSALEM, Sept. 30 (JTA) Thirty years after the traumatic Yom Kippur War, Israel´s military superiority over the Arabs is greater than ever.

That, at least, is the assessment of Tel Aviv University´s prestigious Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies. In its annual report, the think tank cites the quality of Israel´s weapons systems and the U.S.-led victory in Iraq as reasons for a major strategic shift in Israel´s favor.

...

The report highlights the fact that in the recent land war in Iraq, the United States and its allies needed just four military divisions to defeat 23 Iraqi divisions. That, the report says, drove home to the Arab states the huge disparity between the quality of modern Western armies and their own.

...

Shlomo Brom, a former deputy head of planning in the Israel Defense Forces and one of the report´s authors, observes that Israel´s standing army is not only far bigger than the American force used in Iraq, but also has many of the same battle systems.

Therefore, Brom concludes, the one remaining eastern-front foe — Syria, which is weaker in land forces than Iraq was — "would have no chance in a military confrontation with Israel."

...

There is "a window of opportunity to review the IDF´s real needs," he says.

...

But Brom warns that the Israeli government is not prepared, as long as terror attacks continue, to take steps like dismantling settlements in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

"Only the U.S. could do something," Brom says, "but its commitment is low."

...

More: http://www.jta.org/page_view_story.asp?intarticleid=132...

[Gimel]

26. Brom in Feb 2003

International Forces in an Israeli-Palestinian Agreement
Shlomo Brom

Already in the first stages of the violent Israeli-Palestinian conflict that erupted in September 2000, the Israeli defense establishment concluded that the violence was a premeditated strategic move by the Palestinian leadership with the aim of forcing Israel to surrender what it had been unwilling to concede within the framework of political negotiations.

According to this reading, even though the Palestinians are weaker than Israel from a military point of view, they have two principal objectives in using violence to manipulate the course of events to their advantage. The first relies on their perception of Israel's "softness," that is, on the Israeli public's inability to withstand significant losses (the model of the war in southern Lebanon). The second intends to force the "internationalization" of the conflict, that is, the creation of a situation requiring the international community to intervene and impose a solution (the Balkan model). Leaving aside the question - open to debate - whether the outburst and continuation of Palestinian violence was in fact based on calculated, strategic thinking, it is now possible to state that after almost two and a half years of the Intifada, these two scenarios have not proceeded according to plan. The Israeli public has displayed steady endurance, and there has been no internationalization along the lines of what the Palestinians envisioned would bring them closer to their goals. Until now international intervention has been limited, engaged mainly in mediating between the two sides to end the violence and renew the political process.
http://www.tau.ac.il/jcss/sa/v5n4p4Bro.html

The Palestinian Intifada was premeditated (if there is any doubt remaining). Their objectives were not acheived. The PA influence is declining, due to their loss of respect.

[bluesoul]

27. Don't count on it

We'll see about the internationalization. Don't get your hopes too high.

[Gimel]

28. Who said I was?

This was a goal of the second Intifada. It has failed, as the article points out.

"The second intends to force the "internationalization" of the conflict, that is, the creation of a situation requiring the international community to intervene and impose a solution (the Balkan model)."
http://www.tau.ac.il/jcss/sa/v5n4p4Bro.html

[Saudade]

14. So What?

Israel will find out the hard way that all the technology of death in the world cannot ever defeat the principle of justice and the human aspiration for freedom. This is the lesson of history that Israel refuses to acknowledge.

The reason is this:

Israel will rot from the inside. It has already lost its moral legitimacy as a nation, and is completely isolated from the rest of the world as a pariah, and survives only by the deluded "good will" of Sugar Daddy America. Israel's economy is in ruins, the people are miserable and desparate (which is why they elect a war criminal like Sharon).

No matter what it does to the defenseless Palestinians, Israel is in crisis and its future is increasingly dim.

[rini]

16. oh

are you now a seer of morality? Has G-d spoken to you? There are medications for that you know. Where is the proof of your statements? Such vindictive rhetoric and not one iota of proof.

[Saudade]

18. rini

My moral ideas do not come from "G-d." They come from modern moral philosophy, which does not need "G-d."

It's not "vindictive rhetoric" and the proof is found in history, and the undeniable fact that Israeli society is failing on a massive scale, economically, culturally, morally, militarily, etc.

The proof can be found in the fact that the entire world (other than America and the Marshall Islands) perceives Israel to be a lawless, illegitimate rogue nation, an anachronism, the last colonial power, the last ethnically defined nation in a world where multiculturalism prevails and international law governs, more or less.

I cannot imagine what stronger proof could possibly be available.

[Cassandra]

30. Really?

"The proof can be found in the fact that the entire world (other than America and the Marshall Islands) perceives Israel to be a lawless, illegitimate rogue nation, an anachronism, the last colonial power, the last ethnically defined nation in a world where multiculturalism prevails and international law governs, more or less."

Most of the world believes some crazy things about Jews; that doesn't make them true. As for being the last ethnically defined nation; are you living in a cave? What about Japan, China, Germany, France (to a somewhat lesser extent), Ireland, most of the countries in Southeast Asia, Africa, the rest of the Middle East, etc. You fool yourself, living in the US, into thinking that the rest of the world is a multi-cultural paradise, or aspires to be. That just isn't so and Israel is not more insular than many other nations, nor was it established to be the US in the Middle East. Only those who think Jews are not really natives to the area would call Israel a colonial power. When Palestinians move away to Western countries for an education and then return, are they then tainted as a colonial influence?