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spin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 12:26 PM
Original message
Editorial: Obama cuts crime ...

Call it the Obama effect. The murder rate dropped 7.4 percent nationwide last year, and the administration can enjoy some of the credit - but not for the reason you might think. Mr. Obama's election sparked a surge in gun sales, and, consequently, crime rates have plummeted.

In November 2008, a total of 450,000 more people purchased firearms than had bought them in November 2007. This is a more than 10-fold increase, compared with the change in sales from November 2007 over November 2006, which was only about 35,000. The average year-to-year increase in monthly sales in the past decade averaged just 21,000.

The long lines at the local gun stores continued well beyond the presidential election. From November 2008 to October 2009, almost 2.5 million more people bought guns than had done so in the preceding 12 months. It is likely that the total number of guns sold was much higher, as the National Instant Criminal Background Check System only reports the number of purchasers, not how many weapons were purchased.

The last time the murder rate dropped at this rate, it was 1999, and Bill Clinton was president. In the wake of Columbine, those who feared further curtailment of their Second Amendment rights flocked to gun stores, and sales soared. Rightly so, considering the likes of deputy domestic policy adviser Elena Kagan worked behind the scenes of the Clinton White House, advocating trigger locks and more burdensome gun-control measures.

The connection between firearm ownership and safer streets is simple and direct. Criminals realize that they face far greater risks when members of the public have the tools they need to defend themselves. On the other hand, criminals see greater opportunities when the right to self-defense is restricted. Americans living in the District of Columbia and Chicago have seen this phenomenon firsthand - murder rates jumped in both cities after strict gun-control measures took effect. In the year that followed the Supreme Court's overturning of Washington's ownership ban and trigger-lock laws, murder rates plunged 25 percent. emphasis added

If the Supreme Court strikes down the Chicago gun ban this month, Americans may get to see yet again that more guns mean less crime.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/jun/7/obama-cu... /


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friendly_iconoclast Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 12:45 PM
Response to Original message
1. Methinks the author mistakes 'coincidence' for 'consequence'
Still, it's good to see yet another refutation of the "more guns equals more crime fallacy"

Pity it had to come from the loony-tune Washington Times, tho.
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EC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 12:55 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. I agree, gangs etc. usually don't read newspapers and
would not be aware of more people owning guns...besides the ones buying at shows and stocking up all had guns previously anyway...I'm guessing there weren't that many NEW gun owners.
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spin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 04:30 PM
Response to Reply #3
12. One surprising group of new gun owners are women...

More women may be turning to firearms

American women are buying guns and taking aim on firing ranges in growing numbers, according to a recent study and interviews with gun-shop owners.

A 2009 study found 70 percent of shop owners reported more female buyers.

The study, conducted by the National Shooting Sports Foundation and Southwick Associates, also found 80 percent of the female gun-buyers who responded said they purchased a gun for self-defense, followed by 35 percent for target practice and 24 percent for hunting.

Women and shop owners interviewed by The Washington Times offered similar, narrow-ranging explanations for the increases largely self-defense and concerns about the possibility President Obama would further restrict gun ownership.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/mar/30/more-fe... /


Some companies are making pink revolvers and pistols to attract female buyers.


Charter Arms Pink Lady Revolver, .32 H&R, 2" Barrel, 5 Rounds, Rubber Grips, 2-Tone Pink and Stainless Finish





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safeinOhio Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 12:53 PM
Response to Original message
2. No, it's because
of all those abortions 20 to 30 years ago, along with the pill. That slowed the rate of unwanted and neglected babies that turned out to be serial killers.

:think:


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GreenStormCloud Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 06:12 PM
Response to Reply #2
15. That can't explain a radical drop in only one year.
I fully agree that the legalization of abortion has been a major contributor to the overall drop in crime. But abortion was legalized in 1973, 37 years ago. Its effect on crime began to be felt in the early 1990s, and has largely leveled out by now. It would not account for a sudden 7% drop in only one year.

While also true that street criminals don't read newspapers, that does not make them immune for events. Since only a tiny percentage of criminals account for the majority of crimes, then with the rapid expansion of CCW numbers, it would be likely that some of the very active criminals ran into an armed citizen. Mostly they would not have gotten shot and would have run away. Street criminals know each other and talk to each other. Word would get around that mugging was getting to be riskier. Some criminals would then switch to other crimes. Notice that property crime hasn't gone down much.
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TlalocW Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 01:00 PM
Response to Original message
4. The long lines at gun stores and empty shelves were not due to Obama
At least not initially. Police squads from those on college campuses and small towns to big city ones have all started swat teams and special crime units that require new weapons and training - lots of training (which means lots of bullets). The shortages started back in 2007 or so.

TlalocW
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spin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 01:31 PM
Response to Reply #4
6. Police squads would not have caused a shortage of .38 and .380 ammo ...
All ammo was flying off the shelves and the store owners were telling me that customers were buying it as soon as it came in the store.

The ammo shortage reminded me of the Great Toilet Paper Shortage of 1973.


The Toilet Paper Shortage of 1973

If anyone can remember, the early 70s everything was in short supply especially oil. When Americans heard the word shortage, they would jump out and purchase these items since they knew what it was like standing in line to get gasoline for their cars.

Well, whether you believe it or not, there was a toilet paper shortage in the United States in 1973. The entire episode started with a Johnny Carson Tonight Show monologue. On December 19, 1973, the writers for the show had heard earlier the federal government was falling behind in getting bids to supply toilet paper and that it might be possible that in a few months the United States could face a shortage of toilet tissue. They took the words of this Wisconsin congressional representative, Harold Froehlich and decided to add a joke for Carson for the evening show.

Carson did in fact use the joke in a monologue stating, "You know what's disappearing from the supermarket shelves? Toilet paper. There's an acute shortage of toilet paper in the United States."

Much to the amazement of not only the show but of toilet paper factories across America, 20 million people that watched the Carson show that evening ran out in the morning and bought as much toilet paper as they could carry. By noon on December 20, 1973, practically every store in America was out of stock. Many of the stores tried to ration this valuable paper but they could not keep up with the demand no matter what they did.

A few nights later, Johnny Carson explained there was no shortage and he apologized to his viewers. However, this did not help with the scare. As soon as people noticed the empty shelves, they wanted this paper even more.

It took a total of three long and grueling weeks to get the shelves stocked again and finally the shortage was over.
http://thelongestlistofthelongeststuffatthelongestdomai...

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krispos42 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 02:37 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. The .38s and .380 shortage is because of liberalization of CCW laws
Lots of people want to carry a lightweight gun with modest recoil, so they're buying snubnosed .357 and loading them with .38 Specials, or buying small .380 autos 'cuz their lighter and more shooter-friendly than 9mm, .40 S&W, and .45 ACP.

There has been a lot of new .380 autos in the gun magazines recently, it seems to me.
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Katya Mullethov Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 03:08 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. Coming to a front pocket near you
LCR's in 357 mag .
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OneTenthofOnePercent Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 04:08 PM
Response to Reply #8
10. Hand grenades have been around for decades...
what makes this new one so special?
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spin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 04:15 PM
Response to Reply #8
11. A 13.5 ounce revolver loaded with .357 mag will be a real handfull...


I'll bet it will be a best seller like the Ruger .380 LCP. Ruger makes some STRONG handguns that are built like "a brick shit house". I had a friend who bought a Ruger Super Blackhawk .44 mag revolver from me. He reloaded his own ammo and I asked what types of loads he had worked up for the big Ruger. I was amazed when he told me as he was exceeding the top limits in my reloading manual by a significant amount.

The only problem I ever had with a Ruger Revolver was the trigger pull. In general, S&W revolver have the smoother trigger pull.
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jazzhound Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 05:09 PM
Response to Reply #11
14. "A 13.5 ounce revolver loaded with .357 mag will be a real handfull..."

You can say that again.

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krispos42 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-10-10 11:56 AM
Response to Reply #8
18. They should make'em in that new .327 Federal caliber
About 350 foot-pounds at the muzzle... more than the 200 you can get out of a .38 or the 250 of a .38+P, less than the 500+ from a .357 magnum. Plus you get an extra shot.



I'm sure Ruger's working on it.
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spin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-10-10 03:51 PM
Response to Reply #18
23. Ruger makes the SP101 in .327 caliber ...
with 6 shot capacity.





The review is at:
http://www.gunblast.com/Ruger-SP101-327.htm

It will be interesting to see if Ruger offers the LCR in .327 caliber.

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krispos42 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-11-10 02:19 AM
Response to Reply #23
24. And you can get the GP100 in it as well, 7-shot capacity
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spin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 03:52 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. That is definitely true for the .380 ammo ...
I bought my son in law a Ruger LCP .380 for his birthday and getting ammo for practice was and still is a problem.

I carry a SW Airweight .38 revolver and feel it's an excellent firearm for concealed carry. If I had bought a .357 version, I probably would choose to carry .38 cal rounds in the weapon as the recoil is so stiff with .357 as to reduce recovery time and consequently make rapid fire slower and far more difficult.

Many people did decide to get concealed carry permits after Obama was elected. Florida was one state that was having a hard time keeping up with the applications in a timely manner. Many of the people who got their carry permits may have wisely decided to practice. That could have had a large effect on availability.
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onehandle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 05:06 PM
Response to Reply #4
13. Of course they were. Black man in the White House = Racist Panic.
And then they started teabagging.

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PavePusher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 06:34 PM
Response to Reply #13
17. But of course.
Edited on Wed Jun-09-10 06:34 PM by PavePusher
It couldn't have had anything to do with the mans professed political history, the party platform or any of the leftward wingnuts who proselytize against a particular Civil Right.

Pull the other one, it's got bells on.

I spend some time in gunshops and at gun shows. I never heard any comments about the Presidents' race, only about his politics.

I only see one bigot here and it's not me.
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DonP Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-10-10 12:08 PM
Response to Reply #13
19. Oh boy - more incredibly ignorant and unfounded race baiting!
It's funny how you seem to be the only person that ever posts about race issues re: guns.

Do you assume that African Amercians don't own guns for self protection and never buy ammo?

You might want to have a talk with Mr. McDonald in Chicago or the other two elderly black men that just shot home invaders here last week.

They'd be very interested to know that you, in your infinite wisdom and insight, know they are racists for buying a gun and ammunition for their home defense "because a black man is in the White House".
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benEzra Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-10-10 12:12 PM
Response to Reply #4
20. The run on ammunition started back in 2005...
Edited on Thu Jun-10-10 12:13 PM by benEzra
when post-Katrina hedging met production constraints imposed by Iraq war demand. That was when the prices first went haywire. At first, supply could keep up, but eventually demand exceeded supply and shortages ensued. A lot of that, I think, had to do with people buying a reserve of ammunition for newly purchased guns, and the rest people expanding their reserves for existing guns. If 20 million people buy only 250 rounds each, that's 5 billion rounds, and if the industry is only geared up to produce the typical 9 billion rounds annually, then things will get short if demand suddenly jumps to 14 billion.
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burrfoot Donating Member (801 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 01:09 PM
Response to Original message
5. Seems to be correlation, yes;
but I don't know about inferring cause from this. I think the article oversteps a little there.

As noted above, however, it does yet again refute the idea that more guns causes more crimes :evilgrin:

Safe- same thing with the pill/abortions. Correlation does not imply causation. :shrug:
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GreenStormCloud Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 06:20 PM
Response to Reply #5
16. The book Freakonomics does a good job of establishing a cause/effect relationship.
It is one of those rare books that is also fun to read as well as informative.
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Taitertots Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-10-10 01:29 PM
Response to Original message
21. Where is the blood in the streets?
All the people who repeatedly bemoaned the gun purchasing glut have quietly left the room with their tails between their legs.
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DonP Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-10-10 02:01 PM
Response to Reply #21
22. I wish!
Edited on Thu Jun-10-10 02:04 PM by DonP
They are all just waiting for any shooting incident to call attention to it.

I was stunned that the Chicago Tribune almost grudgingly reported on three recent incidents where citizens successfully defended themselves with handguns in their own homes.

Two days later, the Tribune Editorial Board (very Anti Gun and Gun Owner) runs an editorial demanding that Daley prosecute the these men for violating his handgun ban. Criminal breaks into an 80 year old mans home, where his 83 years old wife and 12 year old great grandson are sleeping and starts shooting. The old man shoots the home invader, killing him with a single shot. <sarcasm> Yeah, let's prosecute that old SoB for breaking the law by defending his family. <sarcasm>

They haven't, and won't ever give up. That's why gun owners can't ease back or consider any kind of compromise with those people. Like someone said, "how can I compromise with you when you're already standing on my toes?"

People like that have no intention of ever giving up their almost religious like level of belief that gun control is good for society, not for their personal security people or their bodyguards, but for the great unwashed masses.
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