Dear Reality,
I am on the other side of debate from you, but I like well reasoned and civil discussion. I usually lurk here because of all the one line flaming going on, but I was impressed with your post.
I am a classically trained biologist and also a gunsmith. I have sold thousands of guns to hundreds of different customers over the last five years. I also have a lot of experience reading scientific papers. Quite often when I see posters reference a certain paper, without much discussion of that paper. I am often surprised, when I read that paper, because usually the paper does not support the posters thesis. Many times it just turns out to be a naked Appeal to Authority.
I refer specifically to your statement "Here are some actual studies that show how it is much much more likely that a gun will be used in your home. Here is one study that actually happened to be done in the county I live, King County, on kids under 19.
http://archpedi.ama-assn.org/cgi/content/abstract/153/8... " The stated conclusion of the paper you referenced is, "Most guns involved in self-inflicted and unintentional firearm injuries originate either from the victim's home or the home of a friend or relative." The researchers have done no work researching the likelihood that a gun will be used in suicide or an accident, instead of in self defense. They have only determined the source of guns in small cohort of suicides and accidents. In these cases 57 percent of 19 year old or younger suicidal persons used firearms owned by their parents. 43 percent of these persons could either not obtain a firearm from his or her parents, or chose to obtain a firearm from others. The reason that 57 percent of teenage suicides use a parental gun is not even explored in this study. It is entirely possible that this result is a manifestation of a base rate. It is possible that 57% of parents own firearms, and that 43% suicidal teenagers need to go to non parental sources to obtain forearms. In this case it would be entirely possible that parental ownership of firearm has nothing to do with suicide frequency, it merely bears on the whether or not the suicidal person needs to find a substitute gun. In short we know where this cohort of suicidal teenagers tended to find guns, but nothing about the relative likely hood that a gun owners firearm will be used in a suicide in the gun owners home. Since King County has over 800,000 households, a huge number of which likely contain firearms, and over the five year period there are only about 120 cases studied, we cannot draw any real inference about the amount of increase in suicide risk a gun in the house may or may not cause. The cohort is just too small to generalize it over such a large population. At best we can say that a suicidal teenager who wants to use a gun will find the nearest gun available. If no gun is available from a parent, the suicidal teenager will exploit the next nearest firearm. This is something which makes intuitive sense and is relevant to the parent of a suicidal teenager. Obviously, the parent would want to either dispose of firearms, or lock those firearms away from the teenager. The parent would also want to limit the teenagers access to other sources of firearms.
If we wanted to study your thesis, that a gun owners or gun owners family is substantially more likely to suffer a suicide, accident or homicide involving that gun, than to use the gun in self defense, the actual parameters of that study would be significantly different. We would need two large geographical diverse randomized cohorts. Both cohorts would need to be followed for a lengthy period of time since gun related suicides, accidents, and self defense are relatively rare occurrences. In cohorts of ten to twenty thousand, it is unlikely a statistically valid conclusion could be drawn in less than five to ten years. One cohort would need to have guns, and one cohort would need to not own guns. The members of the gun owning cohort would need to be polled regarding defensive use of handguns, and suicides, accidents and murders involving firearms would need to tallied among both groups. The relative risk of suicide would have to determined and balanced against cases of self defense. To my knowledge, no such study has ever been conducted.
You claim, "There are literally thousands of studies that all say this (guns are more likely to kill owners or an owners family members)." Interestingly enough, one of your sources states that there are only six. In fact you cut and pasted that portion of the statement into your post. There is quite a difference between six and thousands. There is another substantial problem with these six studies. 4 of the 6 are by 2 different authors, contain similar data sets and evidence similar flawed constructions. All of these studies are over ten years old I am not aware of any follow ups that have addressed the obvious systematic problems with the design of these studies. Since these studies have been published they have been largely dismissed due to these problems. If you want to know what those problems are, you can check your own sources. They are itemized in one of the documents you quoted from.
In reality, there is only sparse support in the data to back up you assertions. In fact when we look at Arthur Kellermans studies we note that he originally stated that owning a gun made it 43 times more likely an owner was going to be killed. By 1993, in the New England Journal of medicine, the likely hood had fallen to 2.5 times. In that same study, Kellerman notes that if a household member uses illegal drugs you are 5.7 times more likely to be a victim of homicide. If you rent an apartment you are over four times more likely to be a victim. That is right, according to one of the authors or a paper you cite, not only is his earlier research greatly exaggerated, but renting a home is almost twice as dangerous as owning a gun.
If you can cite any of the thousands of more recent studies which supposedly support your thesis, I would like to see them. You can just post links here, I will go and study them.