Your newest figures are from 2002. How can you possibly state that the ratios haven't changed much _ current tense - when there are no published numbers to support it.Quite easily, actually. Amazingly enough, I don't generally expect sea changes in the world to occur when there just haven't been tsunamis.
If you'd like to go find some 2003 US statistics to compare to the 2003 Cdn statistics I did present, feel free. Here are the 2003 Cdn stats summarized, as released in July 2004:
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/040728/d040728a.htmMaybe you're aware of the work that statisticians and such like people do. They work with figures that are provided to them by the sources who collect the figures. They spend a bit of time building databases, and then analysing the data they have. And the statisticians in question very often have a number of such operations assigned to them.
That's why, in Canada, for instance, Statistics Canada's figures for 2004 crime rates in Canada will be available beginning in about mid-2005. And why the most recent figures I could provide you for Canada were for 2003, given that they are the ones that became available starting in mid-2004. You'll note that the two issues of "The Daily" that I cited for homicide figures were released in late September and early October of the following year for the year in question.
Perhaps the US DOJ has released figures for 2003; as I said, I didn't find them. I am quite sure that it has not released figures for 2004.
But given that I haven't noticed all the swords in the US being beaten into ploughshares in the last 30 months, or all the lions thereabouts lying down with the lambs, I just have no basis for speculating that huge changes in homicide and robbery rates, and firearms homicide and firearms robbery rates, have occurred thereabouts.
Do you maybe? I didn't think so.
I doubt that the ratios have changed a great deal, but I'll not state it as fact without solid research to back it up. To do so would be reckless at best.Sorry, but no, it wouldn't be reckless in the least. It would be eminently reasonable, given that there is absolutely no reason in the world to speculate otherwise.
Between the time of the study you quoted in your post and the time of said post, Canada's great and draconian answer to firearms ills via registration and licensing began.Not remotely so, and it really is high time that you got your timelines straightened out.
The time period in the earlier study was 1987-1995 (1989-1995 for the non-firearms homicide figures cited). During that period, the firearms control measures in effect in Canada were far stricter than any in the US.
Allow me to dredge the bookshelf behind me. Here I have the 1978 (I won't go back to the 1974) and 1994 Criminal Codes, just to grab a couple of relevant ones. In 1978 (actually, proclaimed in force in 1979), a firearms acquisition certificate was required by any individual who wished to acquire a firearm, and certain individuals were barred from obtaining FACs (e.g. people with certain convictions, treatment for a mental disorder associated with violence). Only those individuals could acquire "restricted weapons", on certain conditions, and those weapons (basically, handguns) had to be registered; automatic weapons were prohibited.
If you doubt my veracity or the accuracy of my reporting, do ask google. You would be looking for "Part II.1" of the Criminal Code of Canada, 1978 (sections 82
et seq.).
I don't know where you folks get your notion that the basic elements of firearms control in Canada -- the regulation of types of firearms and the licensing of firearms owners -- is a recent phenomenon.
In 1994, we find similar provisions. FACs are still the standard for authorization to acquire firearms. Special permits are still required for possessing restricted weapons (e.g. handguns), there are still penalties for transferring firearms to people without FACs, etc. It is an offence to deface a serial number, to use a firearm in the commission of an offence, to fail to turn in a found firearm, etc. There are regulations regarding storage.
There simply was no enormous change in Cdn firearms laws and regulations in the last 30 years -- except for the institution of the firearms registry, and the universal requirement for licences to possess firearms (i.e. even for people who had lawfully acquired a firearm at some time without an FAC -- and with a requirement that basic firearms training be completed). I believe the more stringent storage and handling requirements were imposed at the same time or soon after. The Firearms Act in question was enacted in 1998.
The final deadline for acquiring a licence was the end of 2000.
The final deadline for firearms owners to register the firearms in their possession (i.e. firearms other than restricted/prohibited firearms, which had long been subject to a registration requirement, as we have seen) was the end of 2002. As well, transfers that occurred earlier than that would have had to be registered at the time of transfer, I assume.
If, as you have stated in the past, this grand <scheme?> greatly lowers gun crime, ...Where exactly have I stated this, and what exactly have I said?
I have stated that there is an unmistakable correlation between firearms crime/homicide rates in Canada and the stringent firearms controls (that have long been in place) and between firearms crime/homicide rates in the US and the absence of any serious firearms controls there.
Presence of stringent firearms controls correlates with low rates; absence of controls correlates with high rates.
... why, IYO, is there no considerable change in the ratio of same between the U.S., which has no such nationwide scheme, and Canada? Is the great plan not working so well?Exactly what effect do you imagine that these measures should have had in approximately 2 years? Did you maybe think that all of the illegally-possessed firearms (unregistered firearms or firearms in the possession of unlicensed owners) in Canada disappeared in a puff of smoke on January 1, 2003? The border suddenly became impervious to smuggling? Force fields appeared around all the firearms in private homes and businesses so that they could not be stolen?
The legislation is plainly prospective. It is designed to prevent the kinds of actions and transactions that it is understood correlate with higher rates of crime, injury and death (keeping in mind that reducing accidental and self-inflicted injury/death is also a goal of the measures). If we consider, for example, the safe-storage requirements and requirement that transfers be registered, the evidence that firearms have been kept out of criminal circulation might not be visible until 5 years later, when the firearm that would otherwise have been stolen by or transferred to someone who intended to use it to commit a crime or cause injury/death isn't used for that purpose, because s/he does not have it.
On a quick news google:
http://64.233.167.104/search?q=cache:4pRRoaWe9moJ:morningsun.net/stories/030105/loc_20050301002.shtml+&hl=en&ie=UTF-8(The point has nothing to do with the country; it is that stolen firearms -- and firearms in general -- remain in circulation for years or decades.)
Doil Nolan Cummins, 23, of Pittsburg, was booked into the county jail at 4:50 p.m. on Saturday for possession of stolen property, murder in the second degree, intentional, criminal possession of a firearm and criminal use of weapons.
... The handgun allegedly used was reportedly stolen in 1991.
It's going to take probably quite some time to see any effect from safe-storage or transfer-registration requirements.
You will, I am sure, recall the Toronto police study that I have cited I don't know how many times, indicating that firearms used in crimes in that city tend to be (a) of USAmerican origin and brought into Canada illegally or (b) stolen from lawful Canadian owners. A licensing system and firearms registry won't really plug either of those holes. But, combined with safe-storage requirements, they can ultimately be expected to reduce the number of firearms that are delivered, one way or another, from the hands of those
law-abiding gun owners into the hands of the less law-abiding.
Nonetheless, it sure is interesting that the robbery rate declined 3.1% in 2002 from 2001, and "The rate of robberies involving a firearm has dropped by two-thirds since 1992", in Canada, isn't it? (Keep in mind that "robbery", which is theft+assault, includes unarmed purse-snatching.) Handguns really are the weapon of choice for armed robbery, and handguns have just been increasingly hard to get one's hands on over that time.
But, from the 2004 report concerning 2003:
The rate of robberies rose 5%, the first gain since 1996. This included a 10% increase in robberies committed with a firearm. Of the more than 28,000 robberies in 2003, 14% involved a firearm, 38% were committed with a weapon other than a firearm, and nearly half were committed without a weapon.
That's 1 in 7, up from 1 in 8 in 2002, robberies committed with a firearm. Again, the vast majority of those firearms were illegally in the possession of the individuals who committed the robberies, and the vast majority of those were either smuggled or stolen.
One might still quite
reasonably advance the proposition that the firearms controls historically in effect in Canada have had an effect on the rate of firearms robbery in Canada, and perhaps even on the overall robbery rate. It is absolutely too soon to even guess whether the most recent strengthening of firearms control measures will have additional effect. And it is nothing short of disingenuous to suggest that the failure to observe such an effect in the short time since that change indicates anything at all.
If I stop eating ice cream today, I really don't expect to be a size 2 (as if I wanted to be) tomorrow. Why you would expect (or say or imply that you expect) to see a relatively minor change in firearms laws (universal licensing, a really rather minor change, and registration) over a three-year period produce some gobsmacking change in offences committed with firearms a year later, I have no idea.