December, 2006: or, "human-caused climate change is upon us."

[phantom power]

In Which We Ponder December Anomalies That Should Make Our Sphincters Tighten With Alacrity

Record winter warmth in one part of the Northern Hemisphere is usually due to a sharp bend in the jet stream that creates a ridge of high pressure, allowing a warm southerly flow of air into the region. Adjacent regions have a compensating trough of low pressure that brings cold, northerly winds and below normal temperatures. This was certainly the case in January 2006, when the U.S. experienced its warmest January on record. Asia and Europe experienced a brutally cold January. Moscow hit -40°, its coldest temperature since 1979. Parts of Portugal saw their first snow since 1954. Siberia reached -70° F.

Enter December 2006. Again, record warmth was observed over the U.S. and Canada. A compensating cooler than normal area was present over the Gulf of Alaska and western Siberia, but it was very weak. There was almost no cold Arctic air present anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere, which is unprecedented in the historical record (going back at least 100 years). What’s the cause of this unusual pattern? Part of the blame probably rests with the late-freezing Arctic ice this year. More open water than ever recorded pumped abnormal heat and moisture into the air, retarding the formation of the usual cold air masses. At an interesting talk titled “Extremes and El Nino” given by Dr. Gerald Meehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research today, he showed that both El Nino and increasing greenhouse gases are probably part of the reason, as well. He averaged together the wintertime temperature anomalies for El Nino events for the 1970s through 1990s, and came up with a plot that showed the typical pattern we expect--a warm winter over Canada and the northern U.S., and cold over Europe and Asia. Next, he showed a climate model simulation of a wintertime El Nino event run using the levels of greenhouse gases that we have now. The model simulation showed wintertime warmth extending into Asia and Europe during El Nino years, much like the pattern in Figure 1, thanks to the increase in greenhouse gases over the past 30 years.

In other talks I heard today, Dr. Roger Brugge of the University of Reading in England estimated that the record warm temperatures measured in parts of Europe this fall would be repeated only once in 5,000-10,000 years, unless climate change were to blame. Dr. Klaus Wolter of NOAA remarked, “We all know global change is occurring,” and went on to say, “the gun is starting to smoke”, when analyzing the persistent increasing trend in extremely warm events in the Northern Hemisphere.

One cannot blame a single weather event—or single warm year—on climate change. However, the unbelievably warm start to the winter of 2006-2007 is part of an unmistakable pattern that shows human-caused climate change is upon us.

[wtmusic]

1. The collective American sphincter will have 50-80 years to adapt to

explaining it away as a "natural variation", and with lubricant provided by the American Petroleum Institute and James Inhofe, that bogus science is sliding right in!

[phantom power]

4. We'll see. I think it's shaping up to be more like 10-20 years.

You can't spin crop failure. Not if it just keeps happening, until all the surplus is exhausted. And then still keeps happening, until grocery stores start to show actual shortages. And then keeps happening...

My recollection is that for 6 of the last 7 years, more grain was used than was grown. The politicians and talking heads are almost all treating this like it's a fluke, and it will correct itself any year now. But it's not going to stop. It's going to continue, and most likely get worse. It's happening because the new climate is becoming dryer, and the new climate isn't going away.

[wtmusic]

5. yep, you're probably right

but Americans over the past 6 years have amazed me with their powers of denial.

We need action now.

[GliderGuider]

2. I don't really need to say it, but

That is one seriously disturbing graphic.

So that's what all those headlines last month look like on a temperature chart. It really was as bad as it sounded, and it looks even worse. 5C anomalies through the entire northern part of the hemisphere? Jesus.

[ThomCat]

3. That map makes it very, very clear.

Even idiot republicons should be able to get that message that we're fucking up the earth.

[kestrel91316]

6. Read it and weep, people:

".......the persistent increasing trend in extremely warm events......"

The horror is only beginning. Learn how to grow your own food in tiny spaces. I recommend Mel Bartholomew's Square Foot Gardening. You might be able to count on buying your grains at a steep price in the future, but if you want veggies and fruits, you're going to have to do it yourself.

Read up on biointensive gardening and permaculture, too.

Oh, and learn how to preserve what you grow: canning, freezing (not so reliable in the future if the grid gets hinky), drying, salting, pickling, and root cellaring.

[Nihil]

7. K & R to see if the pretty pictures ...

... might actually get the message across to some of the deniers who
only stick to the "Lounge" or "GD" level of understanding ...

[Odin2005]

8. "There was almost no cold Arctic air present anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere" Holy Shit!

:scared: :scared: :scared: :scared: :scared: :scared: :scared: :scared:



You got a link to where this came from? I'd like to post this on another message board and a need to know where this came from when the resident denialists there post.

[phantom power]

9. Oops, here is the link:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=612&tstamp=200701

[Odin2005]

11. Thanks!

[Dead_Parrot]

10. Ooh, what a pretty shade of red

Fuck.

[ramapo]

12. Here's another sobering graph

And go here to get yourself thoroughly in a tizzy...

<http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/monitoring.html>