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EIA World Energy Outlook sees a 30% increase in nuclear energy production

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NNadir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-09-06 02:21 PM
Original message
EIA World Energy Outlook sees a 30% increase in nuclear energy production
by 2030.

Worldwide, consumption of electricity generated from nuclear power increases from 2,523 billion kilowatthours in 2003 to 2,940 billion kilowatthours in 2015 and 3,299 billion kilowatthours in 2030. Higher fossil fuel prices and the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol are expected to improve prospects for new nuclear power capacity over the projection period, and the world nuclear generation projections include new construction of nuclear plants in several countries. In the IEO2006 reference case, the worlds total installed nuclear capacity rises from 361 gigawatts in 2003 to 438 gigawatts in 2030, with declines in capacity projected only for Europe both non-OECD and OECDwhere several countries have either plans or mandates to phase out nuclear power, or where old reactors are expected to be retire and not replaced.

Nuclear power generation in the non-OECD countries increases by 3.5 percent per year between 2003 and 2030. Non-OECD Asia, in particular, is expected to see the largest increment in installed nuclear generating capacity, accounting for 69 percent of the total increase in nuclear power capacity for the non-OECD countries (Figure 13). Of the 51 gigawatts of additional installed nuclear generating capacity projected for non-OECD Asia between 2003 and 2030, 33 gigawatts is projected for China and 12 gigawatts for India. Russia accounts for most of the remaining non-OECD additions of nuclear capacity, adding 22 gigawatts over the projection period.



http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/world.html


If we stay on course to meet these projections, my personal feeling is that the mere existence of 2030 is called into question, since in order to survive global climate change, the world increase in nuclear energy production must be much greater than by the mere 30% projected. To have a chance, we must eliminate coal, which would require tripling nuclear capacity, at least, by that time.

There are no realistic options to replace coal other than nuclear energy.

Of course, a few years ago, nobody was actually talking about growth in nuclear energy production at all, so there is some hope that reality will sink in and further expansion of nuclear energy will come to pass beyond these projections.

I, for one, don't expect the following graph's depiction of a decline in European nuclear power to be likely. It is my expectation that as the realities of global climate change become more and more obvious all of the announced "nuclear phase outs" will themselves be phased out. In the meantime, more and more countries will be running feeder lines into France.



The announcements of new nuclear capacity around the world is proceeding at an increasingly rapid pace, which is, of course, a good thing. Whether it will increase quickly enough to save a significant fraction of the world's habitat and it's humanity is another question. I don't believe such expansion can be affected fast enough.
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jpak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-09-06 03:32 PM
Response to Original message
1. North Korea is expanding its plutonium production and reprocessing
capabilities....wonder what they have in mind?????
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:nuke:
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phantom power Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-09-06 05:07 PM
Response to Original message
2. By 2030, I predict that it will be very very obvious to everybody...
how much trouble we are in.
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Nihil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-10-06 03:44 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. That leads to another worrying thought ...
Given that the people will have recognised the drastic state things
are in, there will quite possibly be a mad rush to get more nuclear
power stations commissioned at emergency speed ... which is just the
sort of thing that leads to mistakes and satisfies the predictions of
the anti-nuclear lobby ...

Talk about a self-fulfilling prophecy. Prevent the orderly, controlled
construction of nuclear power stations with a lot of (currently)
fact-free scaremongering until it is too late then see a panicking
government force corners to be cut in a last-minute attempt to catch
up with lost time and watch the hurried botch jobs fail in a way that
the current generation could never do.
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phantom power Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-10-06 09:51 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. That thought has also crossed my mind. However...
I'm much more worried about a mad rush to coal, which is quite likely. As far as hastily-constructed nuke plants, I gather that the latest reactor designs have more passive fail-safes built in than the designs used for plants like 3-mile island.
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