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Urban heat, urban legends (Patrick Michaels, don't let the children read)

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jpak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-20-06 12:47 PM
Original message
Urban heat, urban legends (Patrick Michaels, don't let the children read)
http://washingtontimes.com/commentary/20060819-095338-1...

According to news reports, the recent heat wave in California resulted in about 150 deaths. The United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts global warming will exacerbate the problem dramatically, doubling or tripling heat-related fatalities in North American cities in the next decade.

The U.N. is dead wrong, because it assumes what climate researchers call the "Stupid People Hypothesis": people will simply sit around and fry to death without doing anything to beat the heat.

Global warming or not, our cities are warming, and will continue doing so. Sprawling masonry and blacktop retain heat, and the density of urban construction prevents wind from cooling it off. (Here in Washington, D.C., there's an additional warming effect: waste heat from all the money changing hands.)

But heat and heat-related deaths are not synonymous. In several refereed papers published in recent years, my Virginia colleague Robert Davis and I demonstrated heat-related deaths have, in aggregate, declined significantly as our cities have warmed. Statistically, we have completely engineered heat-related mortality out of several of our urban cores, particularly in Eastern cities like Philadelphia.

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jpak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-20-06 12:50 PM
Response to Original message
1. and in other news (lol!!!)
Virginia asks state climatologist to limit use of title

http://www.dailypress.com/news/local/virginia/dp-va--vi...

RICHMOND, Va. -- The governor's office has asked Virginia's climatologist to refrain from using his title when conducting non-state business because of fears his views on global warming will be perceived as an official state position.

Patrick J. Michaels, a University of Virginia professor and state climatologist since 1980, has been a leading skeptic of global warming theories. While he believes global warming is real and influenced by man, he contends it primarily is caused by natural forces.

Last month, The Associated Press reported that a Colorado utility raised at least $150,000 in donations and pledges to help Michaels analyze global-warming research by other scientists.

Gov. Timothy M. Kaine's spokesman said that played a role in the request as well as the "perception" Michaels was speaking for the state on global warming issues.

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Viking12 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-20-06 04:23 PM
Response to Reply #1
8. Is he the VA state climatoligist? Does the office exist?
Is Pat Michaels really Virginia's State Climatologist?

Kevin Lynch has interesting pair of posts investigating Pat Michaels. First, it looks like Michaels isn't really Virginia's State Climatologist. Second, Michaels has serious conflict of interest, not just because the State of Virginia and fossil fuel companies have conflicting interests, but because he's been misusing State Climate Advisories to attack the science of climate change.


h/t :Deltoid
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pooja Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-20-06 12:53 PM
Response to Original message
2. adaptation is buying Air conditioners? hmmm.
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NYC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-20-06 01:49 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. Yes, his answer seems to be air conditioning.
...As heat waves become more common, we will simply be better prepared for them and incorporate them into our daily lives and routines -- as do the people of Phoenix and Dallas and Houston and New Orleans every summer day. Because they're not stupid...

I love the words "simply" and "routine" as they apply to people in a heat wave. Especially those who cannot afford air conditioning, or those in a black out.

I guess the author has plenty of air conditioning.
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sgxnk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-20-06 12:59 PM
Response to Original message
3. france otoh
may not be as good in dealing with heat waves :l
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ovidsen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-20-06 02:26 PM
Response to Original message
5. One city's "heat death" is another's "natural causes"
Tagging a death as heat related is extremely subjective. For example:


But in New York City officially, at least there is no such thing as a heat-related death. We dont use that term, said Dr. Charles S. Hirsch, the chief medical examiner.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/18/nyregion/18heat.html?...


In other words, this column by Patrick J. Michaels is crap. Just like the paper that printed it.
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seasat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-20-06 04:10 PM
Response to Original message
6. This should be repeated every time Micheals is mentioned
Edited on Sun Aug-20-06 04:12 PM by seasat
He in senate testimony, used curves demonstrating model results from Dr. James Hansen. The graph in the original paper showed different forcing scenarios including one that matched the data. Micheals altered the graph removing the one that matched and presented it as evidence of predictions of global warming not matching the measured data (LINK). He intentionally and altered a colleague's published data. Micheals in addition to being a paid whore working for oil and the CATO institute is a fraud. He is not a scientist. :mad:

Edited to add a link to Dr. Hansen's account of it.
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jpak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-20-06 04:22 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. I worked with an atmospheric physicist at Palmer Station a few years ago
I brought up Patrick Michaels name in a conversation once and the guy just howled.

He said that nobody in the climate science community has any respect for this guy - at all.
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