TS Chris watch... or not

[Boomer]

I'm warily watching Tropical Storm Chris, edging down toward a tropical depression. Last year, Katrina and Rita practically exploded when they hit warm Gulf waters, so what happens to Chris on that same path will be an interesting comparison.

Was last year an anomaly in terms of hurricane behavior? Or is this now a reliable source of fuel for even the weakest storm?

Stay tuned...

[phantom power]

1. The increased heat will be reliable as an energy source. However...

this year's Atlantic season has nicely demonstrated that high wind-shear and dry air masses can still prevent TS organization. Jeff Masters had a nice graphic a few weeks ago comparing the unusually low wind-shears from last season to the more typical ones of this season. According to JM, upper level wind shear "normally" begins to drop into "hurricane friendly" territory about.... Now. (whatever "normal" means anymore)

[skids]

2. I'm a bit more interested to know...

...what happens when that "well defined upper level low" parks itself square over the center of the gulf (looks like it will spend tonight crossing FL.)

[skids]

3. Things about to get interesting in Gulf?

The WV loop sure is pretty:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html