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Jesus Christ, Wilma is cat-5, 882 millibars.

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phantom power Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 08:29 AM
Original message
Jesus Christ, Wilma is cat-5, 882 millibars.
Edited on Wed Oct-19-05 08:34 AM by phantom power
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/?from=wxcent...

From Jeff Master's blog:

There has never been a hurricane like Wilma before. With an unbelievable round of intensification that saw the pressure drop 85 mb in just 12 hours, Wilma smashed the all-time record for lowest pressure in an Atlantic hurricane this morning. The 4 am hurricane hunter report put the pressure at 884 mb from a dropsonde, and the meteorologist reported an even lower 881 mb pressure extrapolated from 10,000 feet flight altitude. This easily bests the previous record of 888 mb set in Hurricane Gilbert of 1988. The eye of Wilma during this round of intense deepening oscillated between 2 and 4 nautical miles, and the area of hurricane force winds only covered an area up to 15 miles from the center. This is an incredibly compact, amazingly intense hurricane, the likes of which has never been seen. The Hurricane Season of 2005 keeps topping itself with new firsts, and now boasts three of the five most intense hurricanes of all time--Katrina, Rita, and Wilma.

I'll be back with a much more detailed blog later this morning, when I've had time to digest these events. I'll talk about what it was like to be the flight meteorologist on the Hurricane Gilbert flight that set the previous record for most intense Atlantic hurricane.

We're living history this year, everybody, this is a once-in-a-lifetime hurricane season.

Jeff Masters
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.ht...
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Cactus44 Donating Member (159 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 08:34 AM
Response to Original message
1. Been a hell of a hurricanes season, huh? n/m
.
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phantom power Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 08:36 AM
Response to Reply #1
3. Can you believe how compact it is? Hurricane winds only 15miles
from center. This thing is half tornado.
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Dhalgren Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 08:39 AM
Response to Reply #3
7. That's what I was thinking!
Wilma may be the biggest, most monstrous tornado is history - what would it be...a cat 10 tornado?
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phantom power Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 08:42 AM
Response to Reply #7
9. By wind-speed, not a remarkable tornado. About F3.
Katrina hit the same speeds, and was much larger. In this case, it's just so small and tightly wound. Still huge compared to a normal tornado, but awfully small for a hurricane.
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Dhalgren Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 10:25 AM
Response to Reply #9
24. Yeah, you're right.
I was just thinking in terms of sheer size...
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soothsayer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 08:36 AM
Response to Original message
2. Weather control? Same strange satellite images as ophelia
A strange red tuning-fork thing shows up on the radar for both hurricanes. Check it out

http://www.enterprisemission.com/weblog/weblog.htm

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ewagner Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 08:36 AM
Response to Original message
4. We HOPE
this is a "...once-in-a-lifetime hurricane season."

I'd hate to think these super-storms will become the "normal" hurricanes.
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phantom power Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 08:38 AM
Response to Reply #4
6. Personally, I'm sure he's wrong about that part. This is the new normal.
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NNadir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 08:44 AM
Response to Reply #6
10. I suspect there now is no "normal" anywhere in any weather system.
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Boomer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 12:54 PM
Response to Reply #4
29. No such thing -- any more -- as "normal" weather
Over the last few years, the Inuit have lost their ability to predict local weather.

Despite generations of knowledge in how to live in harsh weather conditions, they can no longer anticipate the weather due to the volatile extremes and strange behavior. Dozens of hunters have been killed or maimed due to thinning ice conditions where rivers used to be frozen solid or sudden severe storms that came without warning.

Looks like we've joined them in the new landscape of extreme hurricanes, drought, rainfall, you name it.
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Dhalgren Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 08:37 AM
Response to Original message
5. Let's hope that
"this is a once-in-a-lifetime hurricane season"; and not just the beginning of things...
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babylonsister Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 08:40 AM
Response to Original message
8. Just spoke to my dad in Ft. Myers, FL. He's NOT leaving.
Claims there's no where to go and no gas to get there. SHIT!
I suggested a solid hotel, and he's pretty defeatist, thinks by now they're all sold out. Also doesn't think it's be all that bad. So now he's a weatherman!
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phantom power Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 08:45 AM
Response to Reply #8
11. It is unlikely to maintain this intensity. But then again...
nobody understands what just happened, so you wonder what prediction means. And they're still predicting a cat-3 landfall. Your dad should probably work hard to find a way out.
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babylonsister Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 08:48 AM
Response to Reply #11
15. I know, that's why I called to encourage him. But
he doesn't think it's now possible to 'get out'. Damn old stubborn men! x( It's ironic, too, because he sat through a major hurricane in NC a few years back and swore he'd never do it again.
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SheilaT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 10:07 AM
Response to Reply #15
23. Are all of the gas stations literally sold out of gas?
If that's the case, then, yeah, he's stuck there, but otherwise, couldn't he gas up and start heading out?

At this point it's hard to know just where Wilma will make landfall or how strong it will be when it gets there, which makes serious planning for anyone in the potential path a bit tricky.
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babylonsister Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 10:46 AM
Response to Reply #23
25. Probably not, but he's assuming the worst.
Yes, it is tricky to make plans, but should Wilma head that way, when people start to panic, it could be too late. Witness the exodus from Houston; I was calling him to suggest he leave today and take his time, but no dice. Maybe I'm overreacting! :)
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SheilaT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 04:05 PM
Response to Reply #25
31. I would not say you are necessarily
overreacting. Sometimes evacuating is a good idea, even if the storm doesn't come close. Not only do you need to consider the likelihood of his area being hit, but how secure and safe would his home be, how old is he, any health problems, and so on.

Sometimes people can be irritatingly stubborn about not leaving. Hopefully he'll stock up on water and ready to eat food, and that all will be well with him.
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NNadir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 08:45 AM
Response to Reply #8
12. Hopefully the storm will weaken considerably by the time it gets there.
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racaulk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 08:46 AM
Response to Original message
13. Wilma, the W storm. We're running out of letters in the alphabet.
What will the National Hurricane Center name the next hurricane? I mean, W is the last letter used in their naming scheme, and we still have several more weeks left in hurricane season. Geez, has there even been a W storm before?

And global warming is "junk science." Right... :sarcasm:
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phantom power Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 08:47 AM
Response to Reply #13
14. They will use Alpha, Beta, Gamma....
We don't have a plan for the hurricanes, but by god we've got an emergency plan for naming them!
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shireen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 08:52 AM
Response to Original message
16. Hey! Someone better call FEMA and tell them! n/t
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slackmaster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 08:55 AM
Response to Original message
17. Sorry, but I cannot abide Jeff's comment...
Edited on Wed Oct-19-05 08:56 AM by slackmaster
"There has never been a hurricane like Wilma before."

I would accept that a hurricane of that intensity in the Atlantic has never before been observed, but to say it has never occurred is hyperbole.
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hatrack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 08:59 AM
Response to Original message
18. I excerpted two NOAA advisories from 10/18 and 10/19 - interesting reading
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

EDIT

WILMA HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND A SLOW MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN
WEAK AND ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY.


REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 42057 INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA ARE EXPANDING...AND NOW EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 125 MILES ...200 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

EDIT

000
WTNT34 KNHC 191158
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...WILMA MAINTAINING CATEGORY FIVE STATUS...RECORD PRESSURE
CONFIRMED BY AIRCRAFT CREW...

EDIT

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.8 WEST OR ABOUT 340 MILES...
550 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON
IN HURRICANES THIS INTENSE AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


EDIT

BASED ON DROPSONDE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE
JUST RETURNING FROM ITS MISSION IN WILMA...THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 882 MB...26.05 INCHES. THIS IS THE
LOWEST PRESSURE ON RECORD FOR A HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.


EDIT

So, we have Wilma going from a tropical storm to the strongest Atlantic Basin hurricane ever recorded in less than 24 hours.

Unbe-fucking-lievable.
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NNadir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 09:07 AM
Response to Reply #18
19. I don't recall that anyone was predicting this yesterday.
I really think that the models are breaking down to some extent.
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hatrack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 09:58 AM
Response to Reply #19
22. In the archives, they were projecting Wilma peaking at about 115
This was as of Monday PM, as I recall.

I think you may be on to something here.
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bemildred Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 11:04 AM
Response to Reply #19
26. I'm wondering how they know it's going to take a sharp right to Florida.nt
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phantom power Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 11:07 AM
Response to Reply #26
27. Some ridge of low pressure to the north is supposed to steer it.
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bemildred Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 11:10 AM
Response to Reply #27
28. Thanks. nt
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happyslug Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 02:36 PM
Response to Reply #28
30. Hurricanes go to low pressure areas, the High Pressure over Alabama is key
Edited on Wed Oct-19-05 02:48 PM by happyslug


Notice the High Over Alabama, that is what will keep Wilma to Southern Florida UNLESS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY than the Hurricane will shift to join the low behind the high. Thus this Hurricane can go anywhere in the Gulf depending on where that high goes.

For more see:http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov /

For a seven day loop which shows the High going off and Wilma joining the low behind the High somewhere off the Florida EAST coast see:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html
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bemildred Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 10:23 PM
Response to Reply #30
32. Thanks, that's more along the lines I was speculating about.
Weather predictions more than 2-3 days out never
fill me with confidence. It does appear possible
that Wilma could go smack Mexico too. Or other
things.
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happyslug Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-20-05 02:23 PM
Response to Reply #30
33. The Chart has updated since I wrote the above, the High is gone.
Edited on Thu Oct-20-05 02:26 PM by happyslug
It is now located off the Coast of Georgia and heading for the mid-Atlantic, looks like Wilma will follow it merge with the Low producing the front (and Thunderstorms), and be chased by the Highs Pressure area behind the Front.
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WePurrsevere Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 09:11 AM
Response to Original message
20. "Once-in-a-lifetime hurricane season"? Sadly I have a feeling that this is
only the beginning. Mother Nature is feed up with PMS (Putting Mankinds Shtuff and is now reminding us who really is in charge... and it sure as heck isn't any of us.
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Podface Donating Member (92 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 09:20 AM
Response to Original message
21. Shit Storm
Edited on Wed Oct-19-05 09:21 AM by Podface
Oh man, this is bad. If this hurricane destroys another city, are we looking at bush forcing his hand with national control of state guards?


People will once again lose everything and the heaping fucking contracts that Halliburton will get will enrage us further.

FEMA will totally fuck this up too because you can't fix bureaucracy in two months.

If the indictments come right after, and the political control of this country is thrown into turmoil, there could be civil unrest.

Dangerous civil unrest. More loss of civil right coming?

Although I hate these idiots, I don't like the idea of big bad wolves being backed into a corner.
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philb Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-20-05 09:42 PM
Response to Original message
34. Its only cat 4 now; 923 millibars; and path may change since its going
so slow; steering currents and pressure zones may change before it leaves Mexico which is starting to feel the effects.

They say it might be down to category 2 by the time it hits the U.S.
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