It’s time to rethink Japan’s energy future

[kristopher]

I've previously mentioned that Japan has a lot of renewable resources they can develop, this article gives a brief overview of what they are.
The farm lobby is one of the most powerful forces in Japanese politics. The fisher's lobby is probably almost as powerful. Fishers have already taken a position calling for eliminating the use of fissioning radioactive materials for producing electricity. I expect the farm lobby to do the same.

It’s time to rethink Japan’s energy future
by Matt Roney
7 Apr 2011 5:37 PM

Nearly four weeks after a 9.0-magnitude earthquake and tsunami devastated northeastern Japan, emergency personnel are still struggling to stabilize the disabled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. Beyond the immediate need to minimize further radioactive leakage and protect public health, the government is beginning to reconsider its long-term plans for nuclear power expansion. International media coverage has typically assumed that Japan must expand its electricity generation from coal, oil, and natural gas if nuclear is no longer an option. But the leaders in Tokyo do not have to be restricted to just these choices. A review of Japan’s geothermal, wind, and solar energy potential shows that domestic renewable resources could easily power the world’s third-largest economy.

The aftermath of the two natural disasters has brought into sharp focus the vulnerability of a nation currently reliant on imports to meet the vast majority of its energy needs. Japan imports all the uranium used to fuel its nuclear reactors, which account for 11 percent of its energy consumption. And Japan is the world’s top importer of both coal and natural gas, which make up 21 percent and 17 percent of its energy use. It is also the third-ranking oil importer. Consumed largely in the transportation sector, oil accounts for 46 percent of Japan’s energy use. The remainder comes from renewable sources, mostly hydropower. Altogether, Japan spends some $160 billion a year importing all of its coal and uranium and virtually all of its oil and natural gas.

Considering the risks inherent in nuclear power, the chronic political instability gripping some key oil-producing regions, and the climate volatility and pollution-related disease resulting from continued fossil fuel use, Japan’s current energy economy is far from secure. The good news is that energy from the earth, the wind, and the sun can change this picture dramatically.

Located along the tectonically active Pacific Ring of Fire, with nearly 200 volcanoes and some 28,000 hot springs, Japan is one of the world’s most geothermally rich countries. Using conventional technologies, geothermal energy could provide over 80,000 megawatts of electricity-generating capacity -- enough to meet half of the country’s electricity needs. But with the modern enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) technology now available, Japan’s geothermal potential could be far greater. To give a sense of the possibilities, a U.S. Geological Survey study of geothermal resources in the United States found that EGS increased estimated U.S. geothermal power potential 13-fold.

Despite this vast resource, Japan has ...
http://www.grist.org/article/2011-04-07-time-to-rethink-japans-energy-future

[Kolesar]

1. Solar PV in Japan owes its recent rapid growth to strong policies promoting its adoption.

For example, the government covers up to 35 percent of a home PV system’s installation costs. A requirement that utilities pay homeowners a premium for electricity fed back into the grid by renewable energy systems -- known as a feed-in tariff or FIT -- makes residential PV even more attractive. Begun in mid-2009, Japan’s FIT rate for PV is about twice what a resident would normally pay for a kilowatt-hour of electricity. Moreover, with technology improvements and further installations under the national PV 2030+ initiative, the government aims to make solar PV among the cheapest electricity options available.


Mount Fuji

[LAGC]

2. Geothermal definitely has huge potential in Japan.

Still, it can't meet all of Japans energy-hungry needs. I don't see them getting rid of all their nuclear reactors any time soon, without importing a lot more coal and natural gas.

[FBaggins]

3. "geothermal energy could provide over 80,000 megawatts of electricity-generating capacity "

How does that sky pie taste?

They should definitely look to geothermal for future power generation, but that's not going to help them close the gap in the short-mid term.

The combined power generation capability of every geothermal plant currently in operation (worldwide) is only about 25% more than Japan's largest nuclear facility. Hard to imagine them replacing nuclear with geothermal any time in the next few decades.

Japan also doesn't exactly have lots of available land either. Geo-plants can take a bit of space.

[Name removed]

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[phantom power]

5. How do you see that process evolving?

Suddenly, they now have to divide their resources between energy build-out, and rebuilding all the other assets they lost. And they'll have to do all of it with an impaired economy.

I'm not sure where I'm going with this, just wondering what they're all thinking over there. Also wondering if you see any particular resolve to rebuild energy infrastructure specifically with "non-fossil and non-nuke", or if people are more agnostic.

(I'm also assuming you have some window into all of that, since you appear to have friends and family there)

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[kristopher]

7. I have no idea how it might be apportioned among their resources however,

...I do know several things that inform my line of observation. Here are some points to consider:

- Their culture has a 1400 year history of being totally self contained.

- They have coped with natural disaster more than any other "people" (clearly defined culture) on earth. The role of natural disaster is central to who they are, and that includes the process of rebuilding.

- They are the only country I'm aware of that successfully prevented both direct and economic colonialism. When confronted with attempts to impose colonialism on Japan, their response was to, with great deliberation and planning, form a new national government and with all alacrity embark on a program of modernization that transformed them from a feudal agrarian economy to a modern industrial international power within 40 years. Remember this wasn't imposed change, it was self-directed.

- After WWII their transportation, industrial and manufacturing infrastructure had been virtually wiped out - mass starvation was widespread. Within 10 years their industrial capacity - including a new electric infrastructure, was back to prewar levels. 19 years after the end of the war Tokyo was a showcase city hosting the International Olympic Games.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Ships
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meiji_government
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokyo_Olympics
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Japan (note rates of GDP growth during post war era)

I'm sure you are familiar with their history since, so you can bring this into today.

If they want to shut down the nuclear fission reactors and rebuild their electric infrastructure around renewables, they will be able to do so far more quickly than most people might guess. What will happen now, however, will be a period of national reflection and discussion. There are points of view that support continued use of nuclear power, and there are points of view that will call for it to end. Little will happen immediately but soon there will probably develop a national concensus as to the best course to follow. Once that is established, whatever the decision is will be implimented in short order.

All IMHO.

[phantom power]

8. They do seem capable of sustained nation-level willpower, or focus.

I know I'll be watching how this plays out, with interest.